2023 Novice Chasers

[FinalFurlong91]

The BANC is giving me a migraine

If its soft I think gerri colombe will take an awful lot of beating

But having backed the nice guy and minella cocooner my other selections are already gone

I think with cocooner gone, JDB looking free going and classic getaway MIA the chances of GDM running here are much higher than a month ago

I'd be very happy to take him on if he did personally, think his only realistic chance of winning is the NHC

Thyme hill is a horse iv never caught right since his Aintree win and I'm far from convinced his jumping will hold up against better horses

Not gonna buy into the real whacker time hype, think he's a rotten price as it stands


I feel this race will be 3/1 the field on the day, potentially with gerri as fav, so I'm in no rush to be putting any money down at this stage despite my selections crumbling down to 1

[Istabraq]

The BANC is giving me a migraine

I think it's been this way since the inception of the Turners, trainers have an option either side of the trip now, how often do we hear 'if it comes up soft we'll go Turners but he's a 3m horse' ?
The whole dilution argument has been done to death in here but I think this race (BANC) is one race that suffers from lack of clarity more than most, and how often to we get double digit runners in the Arkle ?
I think it's fair to say we should be looking across the Irish Sea for the biggest clues and the DRF should help but I doubt any any trainers of the big guns will come out and say 'definitely BANC' until March...

[Outlaw]

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/ballygrifincottage-handed-lingfield-mission-by-skelton/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=ballygrifincottage-handed-lingfield-mission-by-skelton

Ballyg heading to Lingfield Winter Million meet. His mare GDL heading to Warwick this weekend bidding to get back on track(very well supported the last day)

[HesTheOne]

Odds compiler fella (works for Paddys parent company) on talking with Gavin L and was keen on Appreciate It for the Turners

they do have a noticeably different position on his price for both races compared to others firms

365 a standout at 10s for the turners, how long will that last..

[robith]

Odds compiler fella (works for Paddys parent company) on talking with Gavin L and was keen on Appreciate It for the Turners

they do have a noticeably different position on his price for both races compared to others firms

365 a standout at 10s for the turners, how long will that last..

I think he'll stink to 2m based on his runs and entries, but if you follow PP/BF's prices on Mullins horses, it's not often you'd be led astray is it?

[HesTheOne]

I think he'll stink to 2m based on his runs and entries, but if you follow PP/BF's prices on Mullins horses, it's not often you'd be led astray is it?

I can’t speak from experience myself just thought it was interesting to connect the dots

We’ve heard it several times from the camp he can go up in distance no problem

The loss of Minella C and lack of word on Getaway will cause a shift in the novice chasers down there for sure.

Of the 3 Arkle candidates,

DD surely won’t step up in trip
the fact El Fab battled Jonbon over hurdles he’ll have to have a crack again. Once/if he sharpens up his jumping he has the engine (still only has had 4 runs in Ireland so a lot of unknown talent to be exposed)
Appreciate It probably has the least unknown talent yet to be unboxed + they know he can go further no problem.

Given the impact of injury’s there’s no way 3 of his best novices turn up in the one race, Appreciate It to be one stepping up im concluding with

Until my opinion is changed again off little more info.. likely next week

[Kevloaf]

Odds compiler fella (works for Paddys parent company) on talking with Gavin L and was keen on Appreciate It for the Turners

they do have a noticeably different position on his price for both races compared to others firms

365 a standout at 10s for the turners, how long will that last..

They were a standout 12s for a while and only clipped the 2 points after he ran, although not sure they'd rack up a massive liability when it's going to be mainly people taking ' a bit ' to hedge...

[DenmanSacre]

If AI never ran in that 2m4 bumper, I don't think most wouldn't say to put him up in trip.

He's raced exclusively at 2m since, winning the Supreme impressively and going off 2nd favourite in a Champion Hurdle after a year off the track.

They obviously didn't think he was short of pace as a point to pointer either, starting favourite in a 2m4 P2P against Envoi Allen.

Highest rated hurdlers have a great record in this - big positive for Appreciate It who is clear on hurdles ratings.

He's the only one of the main market contenders to win at Cheltenham.

The Arkle is also commonly won by the best stayer at the 2m - Jonbon was dying up the hill last year and he may have strengthened but he isn't going to stay up that hill better than Appreciate It. The same can be said for DD and EF.

He wins whichever chase he goes for but I hope he goes for the Arkle.

[Kevloaf]

If AI never ran in that 2m4 bumper, I don't think most wouldn't say to put him up in trip.

He's raced exclusively at 2m since, winning the Supreme impressively and going off 2nd favourite in a Champion Hurdle after a year off the track.

They obviously didn't think he was short of pace as a point to pointer either, starting favourite in a 2m4 P2P against Envoi Allen.

Highest rated hurdlers have a great record in this - big positive for Appreciate It who is clear on hurdles ratings.

He's the only one of the main market contenders to win at Cheltenham.

The Arkle is also commonly won by the best stayer at the 2m - Jonbon was dying up the hill last year and he may have strengthened but he isn't going to stay up that hill better than Appreciate It. The same can be said for DD and EF.

He wins whichever chase he goes for but I hope he goes for the Arkle.

They have always said he would get further though.

It's been the 'surprise' at how good and pacey he is over 2 that people are factoring in...



However, end up at the same point, I feel like if he wins over 2m next time, he ends up in the Arkle.

If he's beaten, it's no good for Turners either really

[HesTheOne]

If AI never ran in that 2m4 bumper, I don't think most wouldn't say to put him up in trip.

He's raced exclusively at 2m since, winning the Supreme impressively and going off 2nd favourite in a Champion Hurdle after a year off the track.

They obviously didn't think he was short of pace as a point to pointer either, starting favourite in a 2m4 P2P against Envoi Allen.

Highest rated hurdlers have a great record in this - big positive for Appreciate It who is clear on hurdles ratings.

He's the only one of the main market contenders to win at Cheltenham.

The Arkle is also commonly won by the best stayer at the 2m - Jonbon was dying up the hill last year and he may have strengthened but he isn't going to stay up that hill better than Appreciate It. The same can be said for DD and EF.

He wins whichever chase he goes for but I hope he goes for the Arkle.

I do see your case for him being an out and out 2 miler but they’ve always said he can further. He did win a 3m P2P along with the place in the 2m4f you mention - albeit both of them runs are nearly 5 years ago.. not too relevant but a little

He’s certainly proven himself over 2m but when you look to shuffle Mullins novices looking at his running style, size and scope, his age, the stable comments he appears the the most versatile of the 3 trip wise.

Dysart looked fantastic, settled better jumped great and has grown out plenty.

El Fab does need to tidy up his jumping and hopefully we see that at DRF, he looks potentially the one who is open the most progress.

that’s how I would split them if I was a trainer.. but I’m not so worth it’s weight

[Mighty]

Small snippet of info: was mildly surprised not to see Ballygriffin Cottage entered at Warwick - Ed Quigley has just replied to my tweet saying he’s entered at Lingfield in 12 days time.

[Dandrew99]

Just looking at potential beginners/novice chases where Sir Gerhard could debut... fully expecting him to be over hurdles this year but thought it would be worth keeping an eye on a few potential entries before ruling him out. Think once it gets past January we can comfortably write him off in any novice chases for the festival.

I had originally had my eyes on the beginners chase over 2m1f at Fairyhouse on Saturday that Flame Bearer is in, or maybe the 2m3f novice chase on Sunday that Journey With Me is in, but those ships have sailed. I can only see 2 other potential starting points for him, being:

Gowran 26th Jan - 2m Beginners Chase (The race Coeur Sublime won last season, no Mullins runners)
Fairyhouse 28th Jan - 2m5f Beginners Chase (Won by Floueur last year, Mullins ran Egality Mans and Bacardys)

Saxon Warrior as our resident race planner, have I missed any? Do you think he could squeeze another one in before Cheltenham if he were to take up one of the two above?

Those two look a bit late to me, at a guess I'd say the Fairyhouse race is the most likely race if we are going to see Sir Gerhard over fences. If he were to debut there I think it's probably straight to Cheltenham after that which is far from ideal...

[Lobos]

Surely if he has a chance of making it to Cheltenham it won't be over fences now ?

[riccirich]

Just looking at potential beginners/novice chases where Sir Gerhard could debut... fully expecting him to be over hurdles this year but thought it would be worth keeping an eye on a few potential entries before ruling him out. Think once it gets past January we can comfortably write him off in any novice chases for the festival.

I had originally had my eyes on the beginners chase over 2m1f at Fairyhouse on Saturday that Flame Bearer is in, or maybe the 2m3f novice chase on Sunday that Journey With Me is in, but those ships have sailed. I can only see 2 other potential starting points for him, being:

Gowran 26th Jan - 2m Beginners Chase (The race Coeur Sublime won last season, no Mullins runners)
Fairyhouse 28th Jan - 2m5f Beginners Chase (Won by Floueur last year, Mullins ran Egality Mans and Bacardys)

Saxon Warrior as our resident race planner, have I missed any? Do you think he could squeeze another one in before Cheltenham if he were to take up one of the two above?

Those two look a bit late to me, at a guess I'd say the Fairyhouse race is the most likely race if we are going to see Sir Gerhard over fences. If he were to debut there I think it's probably straight to Cheltenham after that which is far from ideal...

Those races are plenty early enough if he started in one of them, he could have a second chase start in mid february very easily if all goes well, jonbon had his second run about two weeks after his first, its not a big worry since they are likely to be no more strenuous than pieces of work, similar to the runs of dysart/el fab/app it.

the worry would be that cheltenham would probably be the first time that he'd be properly tested and his jumping put under a level of pressure, something that the other three will face at the drf and we'll see how they hold up, with sir g if the above scenario did play out you might be a bit more in the dark regarding his jumping.

[Zachx02]

Not sure if its been posted by in Jamie Codd's Weekly ATR festival focus thing and says chemical energy would be a "very very good ride" in the NHC