2023 Novice Chasers

[AaronLad]

It's a matter of opinion on jockey ability.
If he's not sure on who's best, then he will go for the most proven, he usually does, and I think that will happen in this case.

Yeah I think appreciate it is considered number 1.
I don't think El fabiolo will go to cheltenham. Saved for aintree.
Could be the most competitive arkle for years.

[Kevloaf]

Yeah I think appreciate it is considered number 1.
I don't think El fabiolo will go to cheltenham. Saved for aintree.
Could be the most competitive arkle for years.

Why would El Fabiolo be 'saved' for Aintree

The trainer / owner / Daryl Jacob would not want that would they?

[Carnage at Taunton]

Mighty Potter looks to me could be a tough nut to crack.
Having JDB and AI might well suit Mullins thinking in taking him on.
DD and EF take on Jonbon.
Im going for that right now…….but not brave enough to part with too much cash I might add!!

[ToniC]

David Casey giving little away on RTV.

Trip not a issue, ‘would be fine with 4 miles’

Will get an entry for the Arkle (unclear whether referring to Irish or English version as both mentioned) and will see if he goes closer the time

par for the course really

[Carnage at Taunton]

Mighty Potter looks to me could be a tough nut to crack.
Having JDB and AI might well suit Mullins thinking in taking him on.
DD and EF take on Jonbon.
Im going for that right now…….but not brave enough to part with too much cash I might add!!
And the DRF might rip that thinking to shreds anyway

[Quevega]

Why would El Fabiolo be 'saved' for Aintree

The trainer / owner / Daryl Jacob would not want that would they?

That would only happen or be considered IMO if he disappoints in Dublin or on next run.
Fairly easy one to sell if he looks up against it on paper though.

But I think he'll run all three in the arkle unless one obviously looks to have no chance or is unfit.
Especially if he has 2 or three darts to throw at the turners as well, like cocooner, saint roi & James de berlais.

All depends on whose fit and firing near decs. in his own yard and his oppo's

[opatcho]

Champ has a nice led here...

[Kevloaf]

That would only happen or be considered IMO if he disappoints in Dublin or on next run.
Fairly easy one to sell if he looks up against it on paper though.

But I think he'll run all three in the arkle unless one obviously looks to have no chance or is unfit.
Especially if he has 2 or three darts to throw at the turners as well, like cocooner, saint roi & James de berlais.

All depends on whose fit and firing near decs. in his own yard and his oppo's

Well yeah, well any that get well beat they could say that about.... jsut to consider it before the next run is banananannananas

[opatcho]

Didnt think he's stay on this store of ground
Those sort of tactics in the ballymore... hmmmmmm

thoughts

[AaronLad]

Why would El Fabiolo be 'saved' for Aintree

The trainer / owner / Daryl Jacob would not want that would they?

Because willie will tell them, "look you got feckin no chance of beating appreciate it.
so we keep him fresh for aintree, like we did last season, but this season we'll win."

That and I really didn't like the way Daryl Jacob spoke about him on RTC, implied he had a lot of learning to do.
" a little bit too rushy"
"sharpen up alot on this"
"when the penny drops"
just a few things that probably mean nothing, and he probably knows nothing about willies horses.... but i think it means he's way behind Appreciate it.

[Kevloaf]

Because willie will tell them, "look you got feckin no chance of beating appreciate it.
so we keep him fresh for aintree, like we did last season, but this season we'll win."

That and I really didn't like the way Daryl Jacob spoke about him on RTC, implied he had a lot of learning to do.
" a little bit too rushy"
"sharpen up alot on this"
"when the penny drops"
just a few things that probably mean nothing, and he probably knows nothing about willies horses.... but i think it means he's way behind Appreciate it.

Willie Mullins? Oh yeah I forgot he NEVER let's others take their chance .... so far wrong I'm not even reading past your first sentence.


I read on.... he had a little set back, he didn't get 'kept for Aintree' because he wasn't good enough to run at Cheltenham.

[Exar Essay]

Because willie will tell them, "look you got feckin no chance of beating appreciate it.
so we keep him fresh for aintree, like we did last season, but this season we'll win."

That and I really didn't like the way Daryl Jacob spoke about him on RTC, implied he had a lot of learning to do.
" a little bit too rushy"
"sharpen up alot on this"
"when the penny drops"
just a few things that probably mean nothing, and he probably knows nothing about willies horses.... but i think it means he's way behind Appreciate it.

I heard the interview slightly differently. The quotes you’ve put there were largely in response to a question about his chase debut specifically, not his overall ability.

When asked about his overall ability, he said he would take anything on with El Fab.

[Irish Rugby]

Mighty Potter looks to me could be a tough nut to crack.
Having JDB and AI might well suit Mullins thinking in taking him on.
DD and EF take on Jonbon.
Im going for that right now…….but not brave enough to part with too much cash I might add!!

Think this is the most obvious analysis from where we are now, pre DRF. Keeps the Munir/Souede horses apart as well.

[DenmanSacre]

I'd say Appreciate It will be kept at 2m. Paul said he wasn't doing anything in front and would love a lead into the race. Jonbon and Dysart Dynamo could give him a lead, although I'm a bit hesitant about DD until we see him in a better run race again.

I don't think they'll be too scared of Mighty Potter in the Turners - do we even know what his next target is? GDM got fairly close to him and he's a boat. James Du Berlais for me would be good enough to beat him and they can send Saint Roi as well as backup.

[Saxon Warrior]

Is your thinking that AI will be beaten in the Irish Arkle then by either ElFab or DD? Also, do you have James De Berlais for the BANC only or not at all?

Arkle
I don’t know if he’d win the Irish Arkle or not.

But I'd like all four of Willies to run in it though, it could be a right dust up.

Ive backed El Fab and DD of his, so if they all show up I’d probably look at Appreciate It’s price to win the Irish Arkle-Arkle Double, and if I didn’t like the odds, then leave it,

If he lost the Irish Arkle, then I don’t think he’d win the Cheltenham big one.

If he did win well enough at the DRF then he’d be around Joint-Fav with Jonbon at 7/4 or 2/1 the pair.

I don’t bet a lot in each race with a view of having a book.

I tend to Cashout or reduce my book in the build up to Cheltenham, when the form is solid and known, I’m sure that the DRF will see me shaking a few out, and bringing one or two in.

Turners
James Du Berlais I’ve backed for the Turners, and not the BANC at the moment,

Mighty Potter, James Du Berlais and Appreciate It, are my Turners bets so far.

I would expect to probably be cashing either JDB or AI after the DRF and going with two to the race (all being well)

BANC
The BANC is wide open, you could pick any of around 10 horses or more for that.

Maybe the GB horses have a good chance of continuing a good run in this race again.

Presently I have Gaillard Du Mesnil and Gerri Colombe for this, both at big prices, 40s, 33s, so I’d be hoping at least one of them to keep the fires burning for this race.

I definitely would prefer Gaillard DM to go to the NHC, and I’m probably going to lay off/Cashout some or all of the 40s, at some stage, given his current price in the BANC.

I would think that I would be adding something else, maybe the entries for Warwick’s Grade 2 NovCH over 3M tomorrow (for Saturday) will stir me into action and complete the study and video playback work on the entries, Balygriffin Cottage or something else over here.

James Du Berlais could be an option here, but their seems to be some thought that he pulled hard enough on his debut, and that the mid trip would probably be his next run.

What I would add re the DRF and Irish racing is that

* there is no Grade 1 in Ireland before Cheltenham over 3M now
* the DRF has a 2M and a 2M5F Grade 1 NovCH.

The only other Graded NovCH pre-Cheltenham in Ireland are

15th Jan - Grade 3 Killiney NovCH 2M4F, Punchestown
29th Jan - Grade 3 Novice Chase, 3M Naas
12th Feb - Grade 2 Ten Up, NovCH, 3M1F Navan
4th March - Grade 3 Flying Bolt NovCH, 2M Navan
Excl Mares NovChases

I'd hope that James Du Berlais would go for the 2M5F one, at the DRF
Gaillard Du Mesnil could go for it too, as a Grade 1 winner, he’d avoid a penalty in a Grade 2, by running in the Grade 1.

If Minella Crooner doesn’t get entered in one or both of those two 3M+ Graded Novice Chases then he isn’t going to get qualified for the NHC.

Classic Getaway and Minella Cocooner seem to have disappeared since they met 6 weeks ago.
Ive cashed out on both of those, as I wouldn’t trust holding the bets I had at the prices I received, when they’ve missed Christmas and their prices aren’t that much lower than I had them at anyway

This list shows there’s only one other Graded Novice Chase over 2M for Saint Roi, El Fav, Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo to go, before Cheltenham, so that’s why I think all four may go to the Irish Arkle, (or at least 3) particularly Saint Roi (as a Grade 1 winner, he won’t go to that Grade 3).

Hendo may look at the Irish programme for Graded races and see it as 'kettling' the horses into races along the way with little option outside of those races.

To me, in general terms, it's what makes the Irish horses used to tougher opposition and better prepared for Cheltenham than the British are.