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What influence do you think Townsend will have on the targets, ruby has stated in the past that he would always try to argue/persuade to split the horses to give him the best chance of winning each race rather than have 2 good chances in one race, does this include all horses or do you think some owners will maybe try to say where they would like their horses run or would Willie and Townsend decide. I have seen that if el Fabio goes up in trip if he is not the best at 2miles it means then JDB may go 3miles as it would split the owners horses up but would this be the case or would it just be case a of which horse Willie and Townsend think is best at the trip and which trip gives them the best chance of winning
I don't think his influence is as strong as Ruby's was.
I imagine he gets asked what he would prefer to ride, and they go from there... but this far out it's too early to commit to any horse really and burn any bridges...
Anyone on El Fabiolo for the Arkle might want to keep an eye on the entries for the 2m4 Killiney Novice Chase next weekend at Punchestown. It's the only option for him in Ireland before the DRF now that he's missing the 2m race this weekend.
It's unlikely to happen but I'd love to see Dysart Dynamo entered in this.
Anyone on El Fabiolo for the Arkle might want to keep an eye on the entries for the 2m4 Killiney Novice Chase next weekend at Punchestown. It's the only option for him in Ireland before the DRF now that he's missing the 2m race this weekend.
Willie ran his 2 BANC horses in that race last year
Suspect one or both of classic getaway and minella cocooner will line up
What influence do you think Townsend will have on the targets, ruby has stated in the past that he would always try to argue/persuade to split the horses to give him the best chance of winning each race rather than have 2 good chances in one race, does this include all horses or do you think some owners will maybe try to say where they would like their horses run or would Willie and Townsend decide. I have seen that if el Fabio goes up in trip if he is not the best at 2miles it means then JDB may go 3miles as it would split the owners horses up but would this be the case or would it just be case a of which horse Willie and Townsend think is best at the trip and which trip gives them the best chance of winning
I think he will have an influence along with David Ruby Patrick & Willie (and the owners and Willie will have final say)
The 2 horses he will likely have most impact on this year are Appreciate It & Dysart Dynamo.
He's in the box seat on those.
A lot of the other horses have other riders to call upon anyway.
I'm really surprised that so few people are mentioning the possibility of Dysart Dynamo going up in trip. Last year, the majority thought he'd be the Ballymore horse. In the end, he ran in the Supreme because he wouldn't settle. On fencing debut, he settled beautifully and all the talk after the race was how fences have calmed him down a bit.
I know his jumping left a bit desired, but of Willie's three big guns, despite what Townend said after his victory, El Fabiolo is the least likely of the three to step up in trip in my opinion.
Just for some context from horses in the BANC market, Gerri Colombe has only achieved a 145 & 151 in two starts over fences, Gaillard Du Mesnil only achieved a 151 for his win over Xmas, but had achieved a 156 on his first start over 2m4f in the Drinmore, Minella Cocooner 149, Classic Getaway 151 for their match up, Journey With Me 140 then a 154 on his second start, Thyme Hill has achieved figures of 150 (debut), 148 and then a 160 on his latest start but it's taken him 3 runs to get to that level, Ballygrifincottage 147, Ramillies 146 & Gentlemansgame 154.
From the Turners market you're looking at Mighty Potter 147 (debut) then 164 in the Drinmore, El Fabiolo 159 (although he's not going to run against him anyway), Appreciate It 154, Dysart Dynamo 154, Saint Roi 155 then a 158,Banbridge 138, 158 then a 142.
So from the top end of the markets for intermediate/staying novice chasers we are looking at the following list of debut RPR's (assuming nothing else comes out the woodwork):
El Fabiolo 159
Gaillard Du Mesnil 156
James Du Berlais/Saint Roi 155
Dysart Dynamo/Appreciate It/Gentlemansgame 154
Classic Getaway 151
Thyme Hill 150
Minella Cocooner 149
Ballygrifincottage/Mighty Potter 147
Ramillies 146
Gerri Colombe 145
The Real Whacker 141
Journey With Me 140
Banbridge 138
All in all it very highly likely means very little until some have run for at least a second (and even third) time, because the likes of Mighty Potter & Banbridge recorded significantly higher RPR's next time out with 164 & 158 respectively, yet Gerri Colombe only managed a 151, which is still improvement from his seasonal debut but not as much as the previously two mentioned and then Gaillard Du Mesnil actually ended up going backwards, from a 156 to a 151 the following race, which funnily enough is the one he actually won.
Just as an aside from this James Du Berlais' RPR is 8 below that of Galopin Des Champs who ran in the same race last season, but his TS figure is 8 better, standing at 122, as opposed to Galopins 114.
Make of it what you will, they are just figures at the end of the day, based on opinions for the most part.
I'm really surprised that so few people are mentioning the possibility of Dysart Dynamo going up in trip. Last year, the majority thought he'd be the Ballymore horse. In the end, he ran in the Supreme because he wouldn't settle. On fencing debut, he settled beautifully and all the talk after the race was how fences have calmed him down a bit.
I know his jumping left a bit desired, but of Willie's three big guns, despite what Townend said after his victory, El Fabiolo is the least likely of the three to step up in trip in my opinion.
Reflecting on that though, my opinion Dysart would step up was because my pocket grew a mouth and I wanted Sir Gerhard in the Supreme. Nothing about DD's run in the Moscow Flyer suggested that he was anything other than a 2m, and his chase debut suggests similar imo.
I would reckon either DD goes to the Arkle, or he won't be going to Cheltenham
By my notes, only 3 BANC horses have debuted over 155 in the last six years (Monalee, Ballyoptic, Santini). But debut RPRs don't correlate too well with final result; a seasonal best over 161 is usually a key pointer to winning or placing.
I make it 5th best debut among Turners runners (GdC, Chantry House, Finians Oscar and Terrefort ahead). Improvement to 163+ what you want to see.
So for me there are two things. Can he improve further to a 161+ horse (I think so) and - inevitably - which race he goes for.
Just as an aside from this James Du Berlais' RPR is 8 below that of Galopin Des Champs who ran in the same race last season, but his TS figure is 8 better, standing at 122, as opposed to Galopins 114.
Make of it what you will, they are just figures at the end of the day, based on opinions for the most part.
JDB ran at Fairyhouse and Galopin ran at Leopards CoD, but otherwise, good work on compiling all the RPRs together.
Reflecting on that though, my opinion Dysart would step up was because my pocket grew a mouth and I wanted Sir Gerhard in the Supreme. Nothing about DD's run in the Moscow Flyer suggested that he was anything other than a 2m, and his chase debut suggests similar imo.
I would reckon either DD goes to the Arkle, or he won't be going to Cheltenham
Love this.
Plenty of PocketGobs on here.
Imagine if it were possible ?
I know what my pocketgob would be doing
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