2023 Novice Chasers

[Middle_Of_March]

Agree with all of that MoM bar the jockeys on 2.. Mark Walsh would definitely ride Saint Roi and I don't see why Patrick would pick up the Ramillies ride, they use Bryan Cooper so would expect him to be on.

Yes have to admit I was totally guessing about both of those twos jockeys. Forgot Mark Walsh even existed as well.

Personally, I’d be all over James Du Berlais (already backed him a while ago but would go in again) in the Browns but I don’t think he will run there unfortunately. Key to it all is probably El Fab. If he’s slow next time in his jumping, he goes 2m 4f race instead and suddenly JDB is split from him so steps up in trip. That’s probably my best chance of him going to the Browns. I really really think he will stay. He’s quick but he stays and stays. Watch his 3m hurdle run behind Klassical Dream on only his second start for Mullins and he looks like a stayer without a doubt.

If he goes, looking at the current market, I would really really fancy him for the race.

[charlie]

Yes have to admit I was totally guessing about both of those twos jockeys. Forgot Mark Walsh even existed as well.

Personally, I’d be all over James Du Berlais (already backed him a while ago but would go in again) in the Browns but I don’t think he will run there unfortunately. Key to it all is probably El Fab. If he’s slow next time in his jumping, he goes 2m 4f race instead and suddenly JDB is split from him so steps up in trip. That’s probably my best chance of him going to the Browns. I really really think he will stay. He’s quick but he stays and stays. Watch his 3m hurdle run behind Klassical Dream on only his second start for Mullins and he looks like a stayer without a doubt.

If he goes, looking at the current market, I would really really fancy him for the race.

JDB was entitled to be a bit lit up given his 600+ day absence - it didn't stop him winning well. He proved he stays well over 3m after his run in the Champion Hurdle, and that move in itself is IMO fairly significant. Brian Hayes looked to have very clear instructions that day - settle him out the back and see if he stays, and he passed the test with flying colours IMO. Next race will be key. I'm not so bothered about him stepping up to 3m because the vast majority of Willie BANC don't try 3m till the festival. What I'd like to see is him settle, jump a little neater (Q made a good observation about his jumping) and finish staying on well over 2m5f so hopefully they go up. You're right though, El Fab needs to jump much much better NTO or his Arkle credentials become Turners credentials.

[Middle_Of_March]

JDB was entitled to be a bit lit up given his 600+ day absence - it didn't stop him winning well. He proved he stays well over 3m after his run in the Champion Hurdle, and that move in itself is IMO fairly significant. Brian Hayes looked to have very clear instructions that day - settle him out the back and see if he stays, and he passed the test with flying colours IMO. Next race will be key. I'm not so bothered about him stepping up to 3m because the vast majority of Willie BANC don't try 3m till the festival. What I'd like to see is him settle, jump a little neater (Q made a good observation about his jumping) and finish staying on well over 2m5f so hopefully they go up. You're right though, El Fab needs to jump much much better NTO or his Arkle credentials become Turners credentials.

If there’s one in the BANC market that has the potential to go on and be a superstar, I do think it’s JDB. It looks a wide open race. In fact all three of the novice grade 1s look cracking betting heats this year

[charlie]

If there’s one in the BANC market that has the potential to go on and be a superstar, I do think it’s JDB. It looks a wide open race. In fact all three of the novice grade 1s look cracking betting heats this year

Amen to that, they really are. Love seeing superstars but when it means an odds on shot and minimal runners, I'd take the current markets any day. Will be some huge movers in the next 6 weeks.

[Middle_Of_March]

Amen to that, they really are. Love seeing superstars but when it means an odds on shot and minimal runners, I'd take the current markets any day. Will be some huge movers in the next 6 weeks.

It really is the most wonderful time of the year

[Exar Essay]

Willie made an interesting comment the other day that Flemensfirth's prefer good ground. Is someone more into their breeding than me able to confirm?

The comment was made in respect of his running a horse (I can't recall who sorry) in a more challenging race because of preferable ground conditions.

It's not something I'd picked up on previously, but it made me think about Minella Cocooner and the potential improvement we might see on spring ground compared to the bog he ran in in his beginners chase.

[JackieMoon33]

Willie made an interesting comment the other day that Flemensfirth's prefer good ground. Is someone more into their breeding than me able to confirm?

The comment was made in respect of his running a horse (I can't recall who sorry) in a more challenging race because of preferable ground conditions.

It's not something I'd picked up on previously, but it made me think about Minella Cocooner and the potential improvement we might see on spring ground compared to the bog he ran in in his beginners chase.

I’d say Flemensfirth progeny are pretty versatile but as a generalisation, they’d normally be horses that would prefer softer conditions.

[FinalFurlong91]

Willie made an interesting comment the other day that Flemensfirth's prefer good ground. Is someone more into their breeding than me able to confirm?

The comment was made in respect of his running a horse (I can't recall who sorry) in a more challenging race because of preferable ground conditions.


It's not something I'd picked up on previously, but it made me think about Minella Cocooner and the potential improvement we might see on spring ground compared to the bog he ran in in his beginners chase.

He has similar strike rates on all ground


Between 11-13% on everything from heavy to good


2 recent horses though in lostintranslation and waiting patiently definitely preferred decent ground


all of minella cocooners best form is on decent ground and he improved for his first run last year when beaten by hamundarson

And wasn't until he was put up in trip at the drf that he started running high figures

I'd think he wants decent ground and 3 miles

[Exar Essay]

Thanks JackieMoon33 and FinalFurlong91. Interesting findings. Certainly not clear cut either way in terms of progeny. But like you FF, I think h runs like he prefers good ground.

[archie]

By its nature, rating novice chasers after one run is quite subjective and tends to be influenced by our perception and appreciation/punting experience of them as hurdlers. From what we've seen, I think that we're mainly agreed that Saint Roi, Dysart Dynamo, Appreciate It and El Fabiolo are Willie's main candidates for the Arkle and some have (forcefully) already nailed their colours to one mast or another. I admit that, at the start of the season, based on comments from both Willie and Ruby, I had El Fabiolo marked down as the early first choice so I also have a subjective bias but the way that I see it is that he achieved an impressive performance despite a couple of novicey jumping errors. I believe making these mistakes is good for novices as long as they learn from them so I'm not too concerned about that aspect.

In other positive news, El Fabiolo achieved the highest RPR (I know!) of the four and also the highest Topspeed mark for the debut run. He ran 5.6 seconds quicker, carrying 7lb more, than the 120 rated handicap winner which puts him at a tenuous 155.

Saint Roi, in his second run, was 1.5 seconds quicker, carrying 9lb more than the 129 rated handicap winner. Tenuous again but approx 146? His high RPR means that they had to have the second, Visionarian, improving about a stone from his previous run which I personally doubt and I prefer the opinion that Fil D'Or was below form.

Dysart Dynamo was 6.9 seconds slower than Blue Lord (170) so you could only really go high 130s based on times. Obviously scope for improvement in the Irish Arkle.

No comparative race for Appreciate It. Nothing to crab about his run but the rating and opinion is mainly based on hurdles form which I sometimes use as a tie-breaker but never the primary data. A couple of years ago some were all over Ballyadam and Appreciate It has basically got his reputation by thumping that one twice. Ballyadam was beaten 4l by the 132 rated Buddy Rich over fences so, if you choose to use that yardstick, you can downgrade that novice hurdles form by about 10lb.

You'd say that both Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo jumped better than El Fabiolo but I'd say again, if you don't make a mistake you can't learn how to recover from it as we saw with Un De Sceaux.

As I said at the start, it's all so subjective but Willie will have ruled none of them in or out at this stage. If he doesn't know, why should we presume to?

[Odin]

I’d say Flemensfirth progeny are pretty versatile but as a generalisation, they’d normally be horses that would prefer softer conditions.

A newer version of my breeding model suggests something similar to this...

Across all sires/damsires, lower RPRs can be expected on soft/heavy ground compared to good ground, but Flemensfirth (as a sire) and Old Vic (as a damsire) [Minella Cocooner's breeding combination) are both particularly good the softer the ground is relative to the average sire/damsire. I'm still to figure out what all this means but I suspect as Jackie suggests, this is as much due to their versatility with respect to going, rather than a specific need for the mud to be flying.

In summary, I wouldn't necessarily expect improvement from MC for better ground as both sire and damsire aren't affected as much as others by softer conditions.


As an aside, my model may be able to pick up on strong going/distance preferences (e.g. via Millenary, who is a sire that loves heavy ground better than near enough anyone else). If you'd backed all his progeny on soft or worse at distances up to 2m5f blind, you'd be 49 winners from 364 bets, SP profit +60pts, BFSP profit +300pts! (He's had a 16/1 winner and a 10/1 place from 7 runners so far this year, both of which were before I knew about this obviously!)

[ComplyOrDie]

In other positive news, El Fabiolo achieved the highest RPR (I know!) of the four and also the highest Topspeed mark for the debut run. He ran 5.6 seconds quicker, carrying 7lb more, than the 120 rated handicap winner which puts him at a tenuous 155.

Dysart Dyanmo had the highest TS mark of 113, of the four you mentioned for debut runs, which is surprising given how much slower he was than Blue Lord overall, but I guess ease of victory can be taken into account with Blue Lord being vigorously ridden to extend whereas DD done it eased right down without being touched. Of the others it was El Fabiolo 110, Appreciate It 109 & Saint Roi 105. Not that it means much, of course, but thought I'd mention it as it was something I had already in my notes.

Other than that a very good post

[Quevega]

By its nature, rating novice chasers after one run is quite subjective and tends to be influenced by our perception and appreciation/punting experience of them as hurdlers. From what we've seen, I think that we're mainly agreed that Saint Roi, Dysart Dynamo, Appreciate It and El Fabiolo are Willie's main candidates for the Arkle and some have (forcefully) already nailed their colours to one mast or another. I admit that, at the start of the season, based on comments from both Willie and Ruby, I had El Fabiolo marked down as the early first choice so I also have a subjective bias but the way that I see it is that he achieved an impressive performance despite a couple of novicey jumping errors. I believe making these mistakes is good for novices as long as they learn from them so I'm not too concerned about that aspect.

In other positive news, El Fabiolo achieved the highest RPR (I know!) of the four and also the highest Topspeed mark for the debut run. He ran 5.6 seconds quicker, carrying 7lb more, than the 120 rated handicap winner which puts him at a tenuous 155.

Saint Roi, in his second run, was 1.5 seconds quicker, carrying 9lb more than the 129 rated handicap winner. Tenuous again but approx 146? His high RPR means that they had to have the second, Visionarian, improving about a stone from his previous run which I personally doubt and I prefer the opinion that Fil D'Or was below form.

Dysart Dynamo was 6.9 seconds slower than Blue Lord (170) so you could only really go high 130s based on times. Obviously scope for improvement in the Irish Arkle.

No comparative race for Appreciate It. Nothing to crab about his run but the rating and opinion is mainly based on hurdles form which I sometimes use as a tie-breaker but never the primary data. A couple of years ago some were all over Ballyadam and Appreciate It has basically got his reputation by thumping that one twice. Ballyadam was beaten 4l by the 132 rated Buddy Rich over fences so, if you choose to use that yardstick, you can downgrade that novice hurdles form by about 10lb.

You'd say that both Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo jumped better than El Fabiolo but I'd say again, if you don't make a mistake you can't learn how to recover from it as we saw with Un De Sceaux.

As I said at the start, it's all so subjective but Willie will have ruled none of them in or out at this stage. If he doesn't know, why should we presume to?

Never thought I'd see this sort of waffle from you.
You had me at Tenuous.

[AaronLad]

By its nature, rating novice chasers after one run is quite subjective and tends to be influenced by our perception and appreciation/punting experience of them as hurdlers. From what we've seen, I think that we're mainly agreed that Saint Roi, Dysart Dynamo, Appreciate It and El Fabiolo are Willie's main candidates for the Arkle and some have (forcefully) already nailed their colours to one mast or another. I admit that, at the start of the season, based on comments from both Willie and Ruby, I had El Fabiolo marked down as the early first choice so I also have a subjective bias but the way that I see it is that he achieved an impressive performance despite a couple of novicey jumping errors. I believe making these mistakes is good for novices as long as they learn from them so I'm not too concerned about that aspect.

In other positive news, El Fabiolo achieved the highest RPR (I know!) of the four and also the highest Topspeed mark for the debut run. He ran 5.6 seconds quicker, carrying 7lb more, than the 120 rated handicap winner which puts him at a tenuous 155.

Saint Roi, in his second run, was 1.5 seconds quicker, carrying 9lb more than the 129 rated handicap winner. Tenuous again but approx 146? His high RPR means that they had to have the second, Visionarian, improving about a stone from his previous run which I personally doubt and I prefer the opinion that Fil D'Or was below form.

Dysart Dynamo was 6.9 seconds slower than Blue Lord (170) so you could only really go high 130s based on times. Obviously scope for improvement in the Irish Arkle.

No comparative race for Appreciate It. Nothing to crab about his run but the rating and opinion is mainly based on hurdles form which I sometimes use as a tie-breaker but never the primary data. A couple of years ago some were all over Ballyadam and Appreciate It has basically got his reputation by thumping that one twice. Ballyadam was beaten 4l by the 132 rated Buddy Rich over fences so, if you choose to use that yardstick, you can downgrade that novice hurdles form by about 10lb.

You'd say that both Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo jumped better than El Fabiolo but I'd say again, if you don't make a mistake you can't learn how to recover from it as we saw with Un De Sceaux.

As I said at the start, it's all so subjective but Willie will have ruled none of them in or out at this stage. If he doesn't know, why should we presume to?

Some good analysis here, most of which I agree with. But I think it would be fair to add Blue lord to Ballyadam when assessing how appreciate it got his reputation.

I'd go as far as saying if Appreciate it met Blue lord in a match race, over 2m chase, Townend would pick appreciate it IMO, and i would back appreciate it to beat him.

[archie]

Dysart Dyanmo had the highest TS mark of 113, of the four you mentioned for debut runs

Interesting. I made a note of the ratings a few days ago and I'm sure that it was 108 originally. Maybe they reviewed them once the Christmas meetings were over.