2023 Novice Chasers

[Studfarm254]

A couple of weeks ago I thought AI was a cert to go Arkle. Within a couple of days we lost sir g and figured out flame bearer is a toilet. So I’m swaying towards AI going going turners, he’s a 3 mile point winner and a 2 n half mile bumper winner so the trip clearly won’t be a problem imo

[Altior]

Slight pocket talk but I could see Bronn in the 4 miler.

[Lobos]

Is 5/16 any better for you?

Yep, on board now 10/1 TWAR. Always happy to be proven wrong and never afraid to admit it. Will be backing Dysart soon and might even stretch to AI once DRF entries are out.

[charlie]

A couple of weeks ago I thought AI was a cert to go Arkle. Within a couple of days we lost sir g and figured out flame bearer is a toilet. So I’m swaying towards AI going going turners, he’s a 3 mile point winner and a 2 n half mile bumper winner so the trip clearly won't be a problem imo

Without mentioning other horses, what made you think AI was a certainty to go Arkle?

[Studfarm254]

Without mentioning other horses, what made you think AI was a certainty to go Arkle?

Purely cuz of what he did in the supreme and he’s proving now that he retains most if not all of that ability.

[charlie]

Purely cuz of what he did in the supreme and he’s proving now that he retains most if not all of that ability.

Exactly!! Regardless of which camp people are in, Willie will fire his most capable bullet at the Arkle, as he always does. That could be AI, DD, EF or even SR, time will tell. My point is that based on your answer above, you presumably think AI is Willies best at the moment, so why would others being injured or not very good prompt them to enter the unknown with him in another race, vs sticking to what we know he is very good at? I do think 5/1 NRNB is a good shout though for those who dont have him covered.

[Kevloaf]

Exactly!! Regardless of which camp people are in, Willie will fire his most capable bullet at the Arkle, as he always does. That could be AI, DD, EF or even SR, time will tell. My point is that based on your answer above, you presumably think AI is Willies best at the moment, so why would others being injured or not very good prompt them to enter the unknown with him in another race, vs sticking to what we know he is very good at? I do think 5/1 NRNB is a good shout though for those who dont have him covered.

The only thing I'd mention would be.....

Vautour was better than Un De Sceaux?

Fired him at the JLT... although that was very clear UDS was also excellent and only could go 2m at the time... so not the same.


Agree with the 5/1 NRNB price. He wouldn't go off 5/1 2nd fav, that'd make Jonbon 1/2 shot for the market to look like that, and that won't happen.

I also can't see them running Appreciate It as an also-ran ... as one of the ones that look more likely to be able to step up, he either runs at shorter than 5/1, or doesn't run in the Arkle...

[Craigy14]

Jonbon has been flawless in his 2 chase starts but this is the problem with UK racing he won’t get tested before Cheltenham, but in Nicky Henderson you have to trust he knows his 2 milers. People will crab his hurdle form, and still to this day his hurdle form but he was bought as a chaser and we’ll see what he’s made of.

I loved Dysart Dynamos debut over WPM’s other 2 over 2m. Like others I really hope all 3 take the DRF entry. I have to say with what was said post race by Townend about El Fab was surprised he didn’t take up the novice race couple days ago at Fairyhouse to get more experience. I know it was only 20 odd days later but he won as he liked.

[jrjr]

For the sake of my ante-post positions I would prefer there aren't too many more races like the Dipper before we reach mid-March. By this I mean an unheralded 10/1 outsider bolting up and putting himself forward as potentially GB's second best novice chaser.

Results like that (as well as injuries) always reinforce how fragile ante-post positions can be, especially in the novice's categories.

[Quevega]

For the sake of my ante-post positions I would prefer there aren't too many more races like the Dipper before we reach mid-March. By this I mean an unheralded 10/1 outsider bolting up and putting himself forward as potentially GB's second best novice chaser.

Results like that (as well as injuries) always reinforce how fragile ante-post positions can be, especially in the novice's categories.

I agree
How dare they !

[Lobos]

For the sake of my ante-post positions I would prefer there aren't too many more races like the Dipper before we reach mid-March. By this I mean an unheralded 10/1 outsider bolting up and putting himself forward as potentially GB's second best novice chaser.

Results like that (as well as injuries) always reinforce how fragile ante-post positions can be, especially in the novice's categories.

We all hear you. So true. Great post.

[Mighty]

For the sake of my ante-post positions I would prefer there aren't too many more races like the Dipper before we reach mid-March. By this I mean an unheralded 10/1 outsider bolting up and putting himself forward as potentially GB's second best novice chaser.

Results like that (as well as injuries) always reinforce how fragile ante-post positions can be, especially in the novice's categories.

Be thankful for small mercies. At least it’s potentially GBs second best novice chaser and not one of Willies…

[Middle_Of_March]

My take:

Arkle:
- El Fab (Jacob)
- Dysart Dynamo (Townsend)

Turners:
- Appreciate It (Townsend)
- James Du Berlais (Jacob)
- Saint Roi (no idea - Coleman maybe?)

Browns:
- Minella Cocooner (Townsend)
- Ramillies (Patrick)

NHC:
- Gaillard Du Mesnil (Patrick)

[charlie]

The only thing I'd mention would be.....

Vautour was better than Un De Sceaux?

Fired him at the JLT... although that was very clear UDS was also excellent and only could go 2m at the time... so not the same.


Agree with the 5/1 NRNB price. He wouldn't go off 5/1 2nd fav, that'd make Jonbon 1/2 shot for the market to look like that, and that won't happen.

I also can't see them running Appreciate It as an also-ran ... as one of the ones that look more likely to be able to step up, he either runs at shorter than 5/1, or doesn't run in the Arkle...

In the fullness of time yes, but in 2015 pre festival UDS was ahead of Vautour in the Arkle pecking order wasn't he? Grade 1 winner of the Arkle trial having posted an RPR of 171 vs Vautour who had won a Grade 2 over 2m3f. I cant remember that far back but Vaurtour JLT was no surprise was it?

Imagine AI v DD v EF in the G1 Arkle trial? It's not inconceivable. I really like El Fabiolo too but I wonder if they'll give him an easier jumping assignment? Going to be fascinating to see how it all plays out.

[darlojim]

My take:

Arkle:
- El Fab (Jacob)
- Dysart Dynamo (Townsend)

Turners:
- Appreciate It (Townsend)
- James Du Berlais (Jacob)
- Saint Roi (no idea - Coleman maybe?)

Browns:
- Minella Cocooner (Townsend)
- Ramillies (Patrick)

NHC:
- Gaillard Du Mesnil (Patrick)

Agree with all of that MoM bar the jockeys on 2.. Mark Walsh would definitely ride Saint Roi and I don't see why Patrick would pick up the Ramillies ride, they use Bryan Cooper so would expect him to be on.