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Having reviewed what WPM has said I'm confident GDM goes NHC. That being said, I certainly wouldn't back him at 6/4. Explain both views below:
Post debut WPM said he'd stick to Grade 1's. Yesterday was the perfect time to reinforce that view, but he said - "I think we'll continue on the Grade 1 path. We might come back to Leopardstown for the Dublin Racing Festival and then decide whether he goes for the National Hunt Chase or the Brown Advisory". For me, it sounds like the decision has already been made. When he uses the word 'good' 3 times - 'His form was good, his rating was good – everything was good except he was still a maiden' - it reinforces that yesterday was a good performance that was no more than good. Willie is a creature of habit, they stepped him up after trying 3m for the first time last year and he made a point of saying 'I think another five or so furlongs wouldn't be any harm to him at all'. I chuckled when he said 'I'm not sure if Patrick has a better option as a ride for the National Hunt Chase yet but I haven't got around to asking him' because I don't think thats true at all. All of that screams NHC IMO and the market screams NHC so thats probably what it will be. I suspect he'll either be tucked away now until Cheltenham, or, go to the Grade 1 over 2m5f at the DRF with strict instructions not to have a hard race. I think connections will look back to last years BANC and be keen to avoid a repeat. If we keep it really simple. Willie will just go for the easiest race, which is the NHC.
My only criticism (which makes the NHC even more likely) is he's not the most natural jumper of a fence under pressure in the latter stage of races. Just to be clear, I am not saying he's a bad jumper and I can't stress that point enough, but, he's 6/4 and we must pick holes in horses that short, especially when they have 2 potential targets and its taken them 7 attempts to win over fences. He's been pitched into some bloody hot races and even in defeat run very very well, but I think if we had to settle on one weakness that wasn't eczema, its his jumping. He actually jumped the last in the Drinmore superbly and it was a really good round of jumping, but I didn't feel the same about yesterday. He dove at a few fences and snatched at the last. I don't know if 'snatched' is the right word to use, but he can make an awkward shape when under pressure. That last 2 fences in the BANC are a really good example of this (recommend watching it back). It might be his jumping technique but if you watch others, they carry their momentum on landing whereas GDM does not. There is no question IMO it was costing him ground and if you look back to the Irish National, you will see more of the same. Dived at third last and took the second last with him which ultimately cost him the race. I think it's worth noting that was his first attempt at a marathon trip off the back of a gut busting effort at Cheltenham, so perhaps weakness in the strength of his finish can be excused. Other very fair valid counters to what I have said - he's older, more mature and more experienced. The NHC is the perfect race to lob along and will mitigate some of the issues he's had. I think I've talked myself into 95/5. He's a worthy favourite, don't get me wrong, and you don't need to be the best jumper in the world to win the NHC either, so I'd add that too, its just a small niggle in the back of my mind for a horse who is that short.
Post debut WPM said he'd stick to Grade 1's. Yesterday was the perfect time to reinforce that view, but he said - "I think we'll continue on the Grade 1 path. We might come back to Leopardstown for the Dublin Racing Festival and then decide whether he goes for the National Hunt Chase or the Brown Advisory". For me, it sounds like the decision has already been made. When he uses the word 'good' 3 times - 'His form was good, his rating was good – everything was good except he was still a maiden' - it reinforces that yesterday was a good performance that was no more than good. Willie is a creature of habit, they stepped him up after trying 3m for the first time last year and he made a point of saying 'I think another five or so furlongs wouldn't be any harm to him at all'. I chuckled when he said 'I'm not sure if Patrick has a better option as a ride for the National Hunt Chase yet but I haven't got around to asking him' because I don't think thats true at all. All of that screams NHC IMO and the market screams NHC so thats probably what it will be. I suspect he'll either be tucked away now until Cheltenham, or, go to the Grade 1 over 2m5f at the DRF with strict instructions not to have a hard race. I think connections will look back to last years BANC and be keen to avoid a repeat. If we keep it really simple. Willie will just go for the easiest race, which is the NHC.
My only criticism (which makes the NHC even more likely) is he's not the most natural jumper of a fence under pressure in the latter stage of races. Just to be clear, I am not saying he's a bad jumper and I can't stress that point enough, but, he's 6/4 and we must pick holes in horses that short, especially when they have 2 potential targets and its taken them 7 attempts to win over fences. He's been pitched into some bloody hot races and even in defeat run very very well, but I think if we had to settle on one weakness that wasn't eczema, its his jumping. He actually jumped the last in the Drinmore superbly and it was a really good round of jumping, but I didn't feel the same about yesterday. He dove at a few fences and snatched at the last. I don't know if 'snatched' is the right word to use, but he can make an awkward shape when under pressure. That last 2 fences in the BANC are a really good example of this (recommend watching it back). It might be his jumping technique but if you watch others, they carry their momentum on landing whereas GDM does not. There is no question IMO it was costing him ground and if you look back to the Irish National, you will see more of the same. Dived at third last and took the second last with him which ultimately cost him the race. I think it's worth noting that was his first attempt at a marathon trip off the back of a gut busting effort at Cheltenham, so perhaps weakness in the strength of his finish can be excused. Other very fair valid counters to what I have said - he's older, more mature and more experienced. The NHC is the perfect race to lob along and will mitigate some of the issues he's had. I think I've talked myself into 95/5. He's a worthy favourite, don't get me wrong, and you don't need to be the best jumper in the world to win the NHC either, so I'd add that too, its just a small niggle in the back of my mind for a horse who is that short.
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