2023 Novice Chasers

[Outlaw]

I put Dysart Dynamo up there with Jonbon in terms of jumping, and probably ability too. No telling how they would have finished in the Supreme had DD stood up.

Only thing that seperates them for me is their price. I don't think either have beat a great deal yet though. I actually think the best horse Jonbon beat so far is Monmiral still. Boothill is good, but I think Monmiral is better, personally.

The acid test for DD will be when he steps up in grade, I imagine next time out.

On pure ability I'd agree but at 2m which is what we're talking about Boothill is the better horse to rate around surely. Would you back Mon vs Boothill if they meet at 2m over fences out of curiosity?

[Dandrew99]

Agreed with everything above really, DD the most impressive of the Irish so far. Struggle to see the big Mullins 3 all turning up, the most obvious one to step up would be Appreciate It, but DRF will sort out the order I imagine.

The main thing is that there is some solid depth in Ireland, whatever comes out of the DRF will have had a battle behind them. Can't see Jonbon having his jumping put under any pressure at all before Cheltenham. Could be a deciding factor in what's shaping up to be a quality race.

[ToniC]

I'm honestly surprised Dysart Dynamo is as high as 6's, he's the only one of the 3 mullins contenders that I don't have has any chance of stepping up, very nice round of jumping the way he just cantered around jumping freely reminded me of GDC's beginners chase last year

In agreement here. It’s Arkle or bust for him re the festival I think is fairly obvious & for those that aren’t backers already I think 6s is defo fair.

Dyasart was (along with sir g) the yards flagship novice hurdler last year whereas el fab didn’t run at the festival (fair enough he got started late enough & was unlucky to miss the DRF) but ‘the’ supreme horse often shapes to be the best Arkle contender from that yard

I think with Sir G looking windy (will he actually go over fences if he can’t get in a beginners in the next few weeks or will they wait a year as with AI) for the JLT then appreciate it for that looks likely and is a fair price at 12s

[Quevega]

Agreed with everything above really, DD the most impressive of the Irish so far. Struggle to see the big Mullins 3 all turning up, the most obvious one to step up would be Appreciate It, but DRF will sort out the order I imagine.

The main thing is that there is some solid depth in Ireland, whatever comes out of the DRF will have had a battle behind them. Can't see Jonbon having his jumping put under any pressure at all before Cheltenham. Could be a deciding factor in what's shaping up to be a quality race.

Yep
the Irish arkle will probably be stronger than the arkle.
just depends if Jonbon is a different level.
hurdles form has them all close enough
problem for Jonbon as is often the case in the uk - Henderson has acknowledged this.
he won’t have had his jumping properly tested like he will in the first mile of the arkle.
I think he looks up to the task but he’s no 6/4 shot based on what we know

[ComplyOrDie]

On pure ability I'd agree but at 2m which is what we're talking about Boothill is the better horse to rate around surely. Would you back Mon vs Boothill if they meet at 2m over fences out of curiosity?

Honestly, yes, but I don't think there would be a lot in it and I think both would benefit from a step up in trip.

[AaronLad]

In agreement here. It’s Arkle or bust for him re the festival I think is fairly obvious & for those that aren’t backers already I think 6s is defo fair.

Dyasart was (along with sir g) the yards flagship novice hurdler last year whereas el fab didn’t run at the festival (fair enough he got started late enough & was unlucky to miss the DRF) but ‘the’ supreme horse often shapes to be the best Arkle contender from that yard

I think with Sir G looking windy (will he actually go over fences if he can’t get in a beginners in the next few weeks or will they wait a year as with AI) for the JLT then appreciate it for that looks likely and is a fair price at 12s

in your own words THE supreme horse often shapes to be the best Arkle contender from that yard, yet the only supreme winner he has novice chasing this year you suggest is the one that looks likely to step up. Irrespective of appreciate it having an interrupted campaign last year you contradict yourself here.

[ToniC]

in your own words THE supreme horse often shapes to be the best Arkle contender from that yard, yet the only supreme winner he has novice chasing this year you suggest is the one that looks likely to step up. Irrespective of appreciate it having an interrupted campaign last year you contradict yourself here.

You’ve probably got a point but I think everybody thought after his bumper horse he would be better for further, and it was arguably the worse supreme in my memory of watching racing he won albeit won well.
As you say there’s been a bit of water under the bridge since then as hes had a year out (I was big on him to run in the Arkle last year) and he was old enough for a novice hurdler never mind a novice chaser after having another year off. He will have to split them up somehow but I would guess AI looks the logical candidate to go further to me.

[AaronLad]

You’ve probably got a point but I think everybody thought after his bumper horse he would be better for further, and it was arguably the worse supreme in my memory of watching racing he won albeit won well.
As you say there’s been a bit of water under the bridge since then as hes had a year out (I was big on him to run in the Arkle last year) and he was old enough for a novice hurdler never mind a novice chaser after having another year off. He will have to split them up somehow but I would guess AI looks the logical candidate to go further to me.

I'm not disagreeing he might be the one to go up but I'd personally be very surprised if Paul townend wasn't on him for the Irish Arkle, as he is THE supreme horse from the yard and until he's beaten at 2 miles he will remain at 2 miles

[FinalFurlong91]

Fences could very easily make a man of dysart dynamo

By westerner out of an accordion mare so is bred for the job

If the bigger obstacles and another year mature him mentally the 20/1 could look huge in time

Why did I say this then not have a penny on him 

[Winging The Last]

It's really not

We've had lots of back on forth on Jonbon and its fairly obvious you are one of his biggest supporters.

Someone called Jonbon's jumping 'nice' after Sandown and you said he was an 'Absolute natural over fences'.

DD just won under similar circumstances which you describe as 'ok'.

Jonbon's jumping wasn't placed under any pressure on both starts yet you've posed the question 'Is he (Jonbon) the next in line after Sprinter, Altior, Shishkin?'

Both were foot perfect, both were front runners and both jumped unchallenged, so I find it inconsistent to reach such different conclusions about such similar circumstances.

He’s actually Nicky Henderson. He only talks about Severn Barrows horses and his best mate Alan King’s. Always saying how great they are and that they are better than the Irish

[Many Clouds]

Why did I say this then not have a penny on him 

At least you didn't back him at 20s then cash him out a few weeks ago like yours truly.

[Quevega]

Willie hinted today that he may split his potential arkle horses. Instead of all facing off against each other in Dublin
The 3 at the head of the betting and Saint Roi look in contention for Dublin
He also hinted Dysart would be likely in Dublin as he’s just been round the course.

I wonder if it would be worth sending one to the kingmaker- to freak Henderson out and get a sighter.
You’d probably say El Fabiolo would be most likely

[Carnage at Taunton]

He’s actually Nicky Henderson. He only talks about Severn Barrows horses and his best mate Alan King’s. Always saying how great they are and that they are better than the Irish

Yep I have no problem in saying I have always admired Nicky Henderson as a trainer and in recent years have thoroughly enjoyed his good ones , and I admit my posts can reflect that admiration.And yes I did stick up for Alan King when he was getting stick on here for lack of success at the festival in recent years. I’m really glad Edwardstone proved he can still train them when he gets them.
I am however not so sure I am always saying that they are better than the Irish though.
And I know I just don’t talk about those two trainers horses.

[Odin]

At least you didn't back him at 20s then cash him out a few weeks ago like yours truly.

I had him at 25s and did the same! Been saved by a couple of roll ups which mean I have him onside any race now but wish I'd just stuck to my original bet!

[Carnage at Taunton]

Willie hinted today that he may split his potential arkle horses. Instead of all facing off against each other in Dublin
The 3 at the head of the betting and Saint Roi look in contention for Dublin
He also hinted Dysart would be likely in Dublin as he’s just been round the course.

I wonder if it would be worth sending one to the kingmaker- to freak Henderson out and get a sighter.
You’d probably say El Fabiolo would be most likely

Well that would certainly liven things up!!
Be good to have a competitive race rather than a virtual walkover.