2023 Novice Chasers

[Eggs]

Kilcruit into 16's from 20's with Hills today for Turners.

…Hills offer 22-1 to win on Boxing Day & a/r. 28-1 & Turners.

[charlie]

Kilcruit into 16's from 20's with Hills today for Turners.

He's by Stowaway and the vast majority of horses by Stowaway want a trip. I'm convinced his future lies over 3m or further and would be surprised if he eventually ended up in the Turners.

[Craigy14]

I think looking ahead to WPM’s 2m chasers, he has a possible 4. Possibly 1 or 2 won’t be good enough, possibly one end up out in trip and even one not make it for one reason or another.

Dysart Dynamo gets a chance to throw his hat into the ring, I’d be pretty certain he’ll stay at 2m, hopefully chasing helps to settle him. I think El Fabiolo will go to Naas on Lawlors day for the novice chase Blue Lord won last season, he looks the one needing more experience at this stage with so little racing on his side. I don’t really see Saint Roi turning the tables with Fil Dor at Xmas so he may be the one to discount after Xmas, we’ll soon find out of course. Should El Fab win the novice chase well (also depending what Saint Roi does at Xmas), we could have all 4 at the DRF for a proper dust up to decide the Arkle runners.

[Lobos]

He's by Stowaway and the vast majority of horses by Stowaway want a trip. I'm convinced his future lies over 3m or further and would be surprised if he eventually ended up in the Turners.

Possibly but never raced beyond 2m 4f and ran in Supreme last season. Doesn't scream a Stayer at all.

[Lobos]

…Hills offer 22-1 to win on Boxing Day & a/r. 28-1 & Turners.

Decent prices for those not already on. Fully expect him to have far too much toe for Gerri on Monday.

[OffTheBridle]

100% agree on this front. Mullins hates wasting a novice season, I've all but written off any bets for him for the Turners (or any other novice chase for that matter). I think the only chance of him turning up would be if he gets a novice chase in January, then onto Cheltenham and Punchestown. But if he's injured now, that seems like a stretch.

I'd personally be shocked if there's less than 2 Arkle runners (injuries aside), being at least one of El Fabiolo/Appreciate It with a second string which I'm fairly sure will be Saint Roi. One of the big guns may step up if he doesn't have a clear Turners candidate (I'm hoping Kilcruit fills that role) and then Dysart is the wildcard. I do struggle to see him running 4, but I think 3 is definitely on the cards.

Ya one of these arkle horses might go the the Gentleman de mee route, skip cheltenham and try beat tired horses at Aintree?

[Dandrew99]

Ya one of these arkle horses might go the the Gentleman de mee route, skip cheltenham and try beat tired horses at Aintree?

Can't really see any of those guys being in the Gentleman De Mee mould... I think Willie was thinking he was a handicapper, GDM showed him otherwise and then Aintree became an option. Maybe something like Flame Bearer would fit that sort of profile, but if the others show they are good enough then I think they'll be at Cheltenham.

[OffTheBridle]

Arkle[/B]

Appreciate It - Paul Townend
Saint Roi - Mark Walsh
Dysart Dynamo - Danny Mullins

Turners

El Fabiolo - Paul Townend
Kilcruit - Danny Mullins

Browning

Classic Getaway - Paul Townend
Minella Cocooner - Danny Mullins
Ramillies either here or left for Fairyhouse - Pat

NHC

Gaillard Du Mesnil - Pattrico

Ya you wont be far with these predictions I think.
He would have a better chance in each race if he upped Appreciate it to Turners
kilcruit would have to go up then to brown advisory
El fabiolo down to arkle
Then leaves room for James du berlais in the Turner's.

Problem with my theory is that it is heavy loaded in the brown advisory but i just think these are the distances that will suit the horses best and give Willie best chances at winning in each race. Feel like i am missing a horse as well.. must be Sir G


Arkle

El Fabiolo - Paul Townend
Saint Roi - Mark Walsh
Dysart Dynamo - Danny Mullins

Turners

Appreciate It - Paul Townend
James Du Berlais - Daryl Jacob

Brown

Classic Getaway
Minella Cocooner
Ramillies
Kilcruit

NHC

Gaillard Du Mesnil - Patrick

[Eggs]

Decent prices for those not already on. Fully expect him to have far too much toe for Gerri on Monday.

…..yet GC opened very short price favourite.

[Lobos]

…..yet GC opened very short price favourite.

False fav imo. Kilcruit the better hurdler and Gerri needs further.

[archie]

What a blessing that we don't have individual race threads yet. Saves everyone from cut and pasting 2 or 3 times!

I could be wrong but I think that it's a mistake to put Paul Townend's post race comments on the same level as Willie's. He would clearly like to split up Appreciate It and El Fabiolo. Both Willie and Ruby have already specifically called El Fabiolo an Arkle type and, given AI's moderate fitness record, there is no reason for them to change strategy at this early stage.

[charlie]

Possibly but never raced beyond 2m 4f and ran in Supreme last season. Doesn't scream a Stayer at all.

I wouldn't be too bothered by what he's done over hurdles, or that he ran in the Supreme. Sizing John finished 3rd in a Supreme and won the Gold Cup, and Kilcruit was bred to jump fences. IMO it was telling how much ground he made up on Jonbon and he looked to me like a horse who had been outpaced and stayed on well. It's probably fair to say his career has been a disappointment to date given his reputation, so he's either not as good as they think, or, as I suspect, he's going to be better chaser. I think that will lie over further based on what I've seen and his breeding. Time will tell.

[FinalFurlong91]

I couldn't back kilcruit for anything at this stage myself

He was extremely dissapointing last season

I'd need to see him prove it before parting with money

All he proved on chase debut was that he's alive and well, the second was a 95 rated hurdler

[Lobos]

I wouldn't be too bothered by what he's done over hurdles, or that he ran in the Supreme. Sizing John finished 3rd in a Supreme and won the Gold Cup, and Kilcruit was bred to jump fences. IMO it was telling how much ground he made up on Jonbon and he looked to me like a horse who had been outpaced and stayed on well. It's probably fair to say his career has been a disappointment to date given his reputation, so he's either not as good as they think, or, as I suspect, he's going to be better chaser. I think that will lie over further based on what I've seen and his breeding. Time will tell.

I'd have thought they'd have stepped him up on his second run this season if they thought he was more a Stayer but they haven't. He did hold an entry over 3m but they chose the shorter trip. That's what I mulled over and brought me to the conclusion of the Turners. As you say, time will tell but he'll only probably have one more run after Monday so time is probably on my side for this season anyway.

[Lobos]

I couldn't back kilcruit for anything at this stage myself

He was extremely dissapointing last season

I'd need to see him prove it before parting with money

All he proved on chase debut was that he's alive and well, the second was a 95 rated hurdler

Willie and his stable girl feel he's right back to his best and that chasing could be the making of him. You are right, he was disappointing last season but he still showed flashes of how good he could be and his opening chase run was full of promise. His jumping was quick and accurate and he won as he liked. Paul in his interview after was really taken by him.