2023 Novice Chasers

[Carnage at Taunton]

If neither matter why start by comparing Supreme's? I think you were right to - it's a relevant piece of the puzzle.

Jonbon does look the perfect Arkle horse, no question. The way he jumps and travels scream Arkle horse - agree with that.

The Arkle is also 100% his end destination which cannot be said for Appreciate It, so thats an important point that gets over looked.

We can agree to disagree re age, thats fine.

Jonbon also has El Fab to worry about. If he improves over fences then he'd be bang there on hurdles form.

If AI pisses up over 2m next time out in proper company it will be interesting to see how this conversation changes.

I think its important to note that for all he was impressive, Jonbon just beat Boothill 8L. I'm sure Willie has 4 or 5 at home who could do that.

Its a race I'm really looking forward to. One of us will be eating humble pie

I started off comparing the supremes to emphasise that to me they don’t really help me in assessing these two’s Arkle chances. I read that some think it is very relevant, and I would probably agree if AI had been in Jonbons race. The fact the he ran in it 2 years ago come March and Jonbon ran into a monster, tells me personally not to use the supremes for this Arkle.

I agree EF could be another and look forward to seeing how he performs.
No humble pie Charlie, it seems we both recognise that both horses could win.
Ive not even had a bet on the race, although Jonbon is in a few multiples.

[JackieMoon33]

Bang on. We'd be talking about him only potentially as a handicapper but probably not at all. The prices quoted for him are ridiculous.

I’d have still liked him for open novice races but I agree that the prices and disgusting. Some of the worst we’ve seen for a horse yet to make his debut under a new discipline this season.

[The Giant Bolster]

I’d have still liked him for open novice races but I agree that the prices and disgusting. Some of the worst we’ve seen for a horse yet to make his debut under a new discipline this season.

I agree; he was rated 149 over hurdles which gives him every right to be involved (El Fabiolo was rated 150 and TSL 148). I'd say his price might be influenced by the switch in trainer but he would be in contention regardless. At present, I see him as a threat in those races but not in the top tier due to age and arguably because the form of his Punchestown second may have been influenced by TSL and potentially Kilcruit having one run too many.

[charlie]

I started off comparing the supremes to emphasise that to me they don’t really help me in assessing these two’s Arkle chances. I read that some think it is very relevant, and I would probably agree if AI had been in Jonbons race. The fact the he ran in it 2 years ago come March and Jonbon ran into a monster, tells me personally not to use the supremes for this Arkle.

I agree EF could be another and look forward to seeing how he performs.
No humble pie Charlie, it seems we both recognise that both horses could win.
Ive not even had a bet on the race, although Jonbon is in a few multiples.

Yeh people can can take or leave hurdles form - some horses just make much better chasers.

You haven't had a bet yet?!? What have you been doing

I recommend backing EF. You've missed the price on Jonbon and little splits them from last year - Willie sounds bullish he's a good chaser. Onto tomorrow......

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yeh people can can take or leave hurdles form - some horses just make much better chasers.

You haven't had a bet yet?!? What have you been doing

I recommend backing EF. You've missed the price on Jonbon and little splits them from last year - Willie sounds bullish he's a good chaser. Onto tomorrow......

Haha, yeah I have not done very well have I.
Missed the boat on Jonbon
It’s getting a bit silly with the Arkle now for me as I don’t like backing shorties ante post and to get what I think is a decent price it’s looking more and more like you have to back them the previous season, before they have even jumped a fence and guessing that they wi actually go chasing.
Thats not really my thing either.
Anyway I’m leaving the race alone now I think until much nearer the time and then see how the land lies.
Plenty of other races to look at ante post.
But having said that I Will take a look at El Fab again mate.
Cheers for that.

[ComplyOrDie]

Nick Luck spoke to Willie Mullins, expecting Appreciate It to go down the Arkle route, which is par for the course really, until he is beat (if he is). Might end up seeing a El Fabiolo/Appreciate It clash at some point. Dysart has continued to be fairly weak for the Arkle in recent weeks, including being matched at 40's, albeit for pennies.

[robith]

Be interesting to see how flame bearer does tomorrow

I'm a bit windy on him at this stage myself as a potential grade 1 novice chase winner

His hurdles form is good but nothing special, ties in with ha dor who is far from mullins best and got absolutely battered by state man

He's also by fame and glory and they aren't always the most natural chasers

I'm a little surprised he is so short to beat journey with me

Definitely need to see him jump before contemplating any investment even as a small saver

Willie has been talking him up non stop, but same, I just don't see it myself

[Winging The Last]

You’d have to think unless there’s significant improvement from moving to Willie’s then he won’t come close to Sir Gerhard or Mighty Potter in this, based on hurdles form and current chase form

[Zachx02]

Have absolutely no interest in covering him for the Turners considering he was talked up a lot as an arkle type and now he's been diverted to the Turners due to AI and most likely el Fabiolo too

[Zachx02]

Well thats one to take out of the mullins bingo to make our life easier

[Brooksie]

good that from JWM, impressive. CG and MC mark that form up

[ComplyOrDie]

Well, that's the Flame Bearer bubble well and truly burst.

Journey With Me is definitely not a quick horse, still needs to go up in trip, IMO. Hopefully next time out we'll see him over 3m.

[RoadToCheltenham]

Flame Bearer out like a light. Lovely from JWM there though!

[FinalFurlong91]

Another fame and glory that can't jump a fence

Really can't back his progeny until you've seen them jump

That was dreadful from flame bearer

Journey with me was slow at a few too

[ComplyOrDie]

One thing I will say, it will be interesting to see the sectionals, JWM & Flame Bearer really struggled on the run in, and some other runners got outpaced really early, I wonder if they went quite quick early on. Visually it didn't look quick, but that doesn't mean it wasn't.