2023 Novice Chasers

[charlie]

Difficult imo to assess AI in relation to the Arkle and beating Jonbon in particular.
Whist AI won a Supreme very easily, it was imo a poor renewal. Hes also had health issues.
Jonbon finished a well beaten horse in his Supreme but did come up against a horse that could be the best weve seen for some time, possibly ever.

They are chasing now though, different ball game.
Both have proved they can jump a fence well, and AI needs to be seen in better company to judge more fairly imo.
Jonbon i have already judged, i think hes destined for the very top.
AI might be as well, but hes not got time on his side.
Gut feeling right now is Jonbon will be the better chaser given his age and scope for improvement, and is the one most likely to win the Arkle, but i would not rule out AI, especially if he puts in an impressive display next time in a better race.
Of course its possible he steps up, but personally i hope he stays at 2m, stays sound, and we get a clash to look forward to.

I don't think their hurdle careers aren't difficult to compare at all. Appreciate It was in the process of beating 153 rated Blue Lord by 10L+ before he fell and won by 24L posting an RPR of 163. Constitution Hill was in a different parish to Jonbon that day and it's interesting how those leaning towards Jonbon use Constitution Hill as the marker and not Kilcruit. I look at that race and think 'Jonbon has beat Kilcruit by 2L and posted an RPR of 149'. For me there is zero doubt which horse migrated the novice hurdle ranks as the better horse, both on ratings and visually - Appreciate It.

Completely agree that AI needs to be seen in better company to fully access. So far Jonbon looks more like an Arkle type, I think that's fair to say. I disagree about age catching up with him at 8 going on 9 though. As I posted elsewhere earlier, 27 horses aged 9 or older (inc a 12 year old) have won the QMCC and AI doesn't know he's a novice! It would be a great clash. I think AI was a bit lazy today. Theres no doubt Jonbon races in a flashier way and they look built like two different types, but if I had to take 6/5 about Jonbon for the Arkle or 5/1 about AI, I'd take the latter every day of the week. Exciting times,

[YoungHustler]

Difficult imo to assess AI in relation to the Arkle and beating Jonbon in particular.
Whist AI won a Supreme very easily, it was imo a poor renewal. Hes also had health issues.
Jonbon finished a well beaten horse in his Supreme but did come up against a horse that could be the best weve seen for some time, possibly ever.

They are chasing now though, different ball game.
Both have proved they can jump a fence well, and AI needs to be seen in better company to judge more fairly imo.
Jonbon i have already judged, i think hes destined for the very top.
AI might be as well, but hes not got time on his side.
Gut feeling right now is Jonbon will be the better chaser given his age and scope for improvement, and is the one most likely to win the Arkle, but i would not rule out AI, especially if he puts in an impressive display next time in a better race.
Of course its possible he steps up, but personally i hope he stays at 2m, stays sound, and we get a clash to look forward to.

I agree and would still much prefer Jonbon over AI in the Arkle. Jonbon looks to be the much better jumper and would make lengths over AI at each fence imo. There was nothing wrong with AI's jumping but Jonbon is quick through the air and is then quick to get going after landing. AI would be much more suited to the Turner's imo or even the BANC but I'm happy to leave him unbacked for all races.

[Quevega]

Would be very surprised if Willie ran a horse in a grade 1 novice on there first start over fences

Wouldn't be his MO at all

I agree.
It will be interesting if he leaves any of them in the race at the next stage.

As it's also not his MO to leave a grade 1 race at xmas without a runner from his team.
Saint Roi looks the obvious one, but he's kind of a hopeful runner as he looks to be bested by Fil Dor.

I do think it will probably be left to Saint Roi.

I just wonder if he'll be tempted to run a debutant though as surely he'll have an inkling as to wether they are capable of beating Fil Dor & Hollow Games/Banbridge.
No ride for Townend either.

I'd say he's nothing to lose running Sir Gerhard in it, as if he gets beat he's still a novice, so he can go to Dublin over further and try again, and if beaten then they can go back hurdling if they wanted. All depends on how he goes though. And I very much doubt they'll do this, even if Saint Roi is unfit to race.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I don't think their hurdle careers aren't difficult to compare at all. Appreciate It was in the process of beating 153 rated Blue Lord by 10L+ before he fell and won by 24L posting an RPR of 163. Constitution Hill was in a different parish to Jonbon that day and it's interesting how those leaning towards Jonbon use Constitution Hill as the marker and not Kilcruit. I look at that race and think 'Jonbon has beat Kilcruit by 2L and posted an RPR of 149'. For me there is zero doubt which horse migrated the novice hurdle ranks as the better horse, both on ratings and visually - Appreciate It.

Completely agree that AI needs to be seen in better company to fully access. So far Jonbon looks more like an Arkle type, I think that's fair to say. I disagree about age catching up with him at 8 going on 9 though. As I posted elsewhere earlier, 27 horses aged 9 or older (inc a 12 year old) have won the QMCC and AI doesn't know he's a novice! It would be a great clash. I think AI was a bit lazy today. Theres no doubt Jonbon races in a flashier way and they look built like two different types, but if I had to take 6/5 about Jonbon for the Arkle or 5/1 about AI, I'd take the latter every day of the week. Exciting times,

I never said AI was not a better hurdler, on ratings he clearly was. Just talking about their respective races really.
To be honest the supreme form of a horse 2 festivals before his Arkle, and the supreme form of a horse born to be a chaser, neither really matter to me when looking at this Arkle.
Like i said they are chasing now, and thats what i am interested in, how they jump in a 2m race.
Jonbon looks the perfect Arkle horse to me, and as i said can see him reaching the very top.
The age thing does matter to me, because Jonbon has more scope for improvement.
I would much rather have a 7yr old than a 9yr old for an Arkle. Especially when the 7yr old has had no issues and the 9yr old has.
Having said all that though, i do recognise that AI needs to be seen again, and i do recognise that its not impossible that AI could be a better horse than Jonbon over fences.
My gut says he is not, but If he is he will be a serious horse.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I agree and would still much prefer Jonbon over AI in the Arkle. Jonbon looks to be the much better jumper and would make lengths over AI at each fence imo. There was nothing wrong with AI's jumping but Jonbon is quick through the air and is then quick to get going after landing. AI would be much more suited to the Turner's imo or even the BANC but I'm happy to leave him unbacked for all races.

Absolutely bang on re Jonbons jumping.
Proper 2m chaser.

[FinalFurlong91]

Be interesting to see how flame bearer does tomorrow

I'm a bit windy on him at this stage myself as a potential grade 1 novice chase winner

His hurdles form is good but nothing special, ties in with ha dor who is far from mullins best and got absolutely battered by state man

He's also by fame and glory and they aren't always the most natural chasers

I'm a little surprised he is so short to beat journey with me

Definitely need to see him jump before contemplating any investment even as a small saver

[opatcho]

Wearing a hood first time out as well
staying away from him for now

[Hurricane fly]

Not sure what Flame Bearer has done to really propel himself into Arkle contention.

A 7 length defeat to Stateman and a head victory over Ha D'or don't scream superstar in the making.

Personally he's not even in my thinking unless he beats someone of note over the Christmas period

[Mighty]

Been mulling over what to do about Flame Bearer - in case anyone wants the option, Flame Bearer is 8/1 generally to win the Turners, but I’ve spotted that he’s also 8/1 in Sky’s TWAR market.

Hills have put him up at 9/1 to win tomorrow and any race, 10/1 tomorrow and Turners, and 14/1 tomorrow and Arkle.

[FinalFurlong91]

Not sure what Flame Bearer has done to really propel himself into Arkle contention.

A 7 length defeat to Stateman and a head victory over Ha D'or don't scream superstar in the making.

Personally he's not even in my thinking unless he beats someone of note over the Christmas period

If he hadn't switched to Willie I doubt he'd even be near the discussion for the arkle or turners

[ComplyOrDie]

If he hadn't switched to Willie I doubt he'd even be near the discussion for the arkle or turners

Exactly this.

[Lobos]

If he hadn't switched to Willie I doubt he'd even be near the discussion for the arkle or turners

Bang on. We'd be talking about him only potentially as a handicapper but probably not at all. The prices quoted for him are ridiculous.

[charlie]

I never said AI was not a better hurdler, on ratings he clearly was. Just talking about their respective races really.
To be honest the supreme form of a horse 2 festivals before his Arkle, and the supreme form of a horse born to be a chaser, neither really matter to me when looking at this Arkle.
Like i said they are chasing now, and thats what i am interested in, how they jump in a 2m race.
Jonbon looks the perfect Arkle horse to me, and as i said can see him reaching the very top.
The age thing does matter to me, because Jonbon has more scope for improvement.
I would much rather have a 7yr old than a 9yr old for an Arkle. Especially when the 7yr old has had no issues and the 9yr old has.
Having said all that though, i do recognise that AI needs to be seen again, and i do recognise that its not impossible that AI could be a better horse than Jonbon over fences.
My gut says he is not, but If he is he will be a serious horse.

If neither matter why start by comparing Supreme's? I think you were right to - it's a relevant piece of the puzzle.

Jonbon does look the perfect Arkle horse, no question. The way he jumps and travels scream Arkle horse - agree with that.

The Arkle is also 100% his end destination which cannot be said for Appreciate It, so thats an important point that gets over looked.

We can agree to disagree re age, thats fine.

Jonbon also has El Fab to worry about. If he improves over fences then he'd be bang there on hurdles form.

If AI pisses up over 2m next time out in proper company it will be interesting to see how this conversation changes.

I think its important to note that for all he was impressive, Jonbon just beat Boothill 8L. I'm sure Willie has 4 or 5 at home who could do that.

Its a race I'm really looking forward to. One of us will be eating humble pie

[charlie]

If he hadn't switched to Willie I doubt he'd even be near the discussion for the arkle or turners

Thats a really good point - there are so many horses like this.

I took a punt and backed him for the BANC. I'm in the minority with that view, but stayed on really well to finish 2nd LTO. He may have just picked off horses who had had tougher seasons, but there is stamina in his pedigree and if Willie can get him more settled in his races then up in trip could be the plan. Starting over 2m4f and not 2m was a very small step in the right direction!

[Eggs]

If he hadn't switched to Willie I doubt he'd even be near the discussion for the arkle or turners

….I recall Fran Berry selecting him as his horse to follow this season when still with Pat Doyle;

’His G2 win at Fairyhouse at Easter is worth a watch to illustrate a strong, robust type who should be better going chasing. He looks underestimated at 20-1 for the Turners.’

https://www.racingtv.com/news/racing...ing-tv-tracker

I think the finish of that race is on this link.