2023 Novice Chasers

[nortonscoin200]

charlie yes there's no question GDM is the class act of the two and the NHC would undoubtedly be his easiest option. He's absolutely made for the race imo.

Willie may also be reluctant to have Ramillies as his number one dart in the NHC because he's far from being a bullet-proof option.

But the choice may not be as black or white as that.

If GDM comes out as Willie's top dog in the Neville Hotels I imagine he'd lean towards the BANC - specially if he finds a better NHC substitute for GDM than Ramillies, another that would go in with a favourite's chance.

And with seven other entries in the Neville Hall alone he has plenty of potential candidates.

As you say, maybe things will become much clearer after GDM's next run.

I think I'd feel happier sitting on Ramillies at 50-1 for the NHC rather than GDM at 5s or less right now .

But we're talking Willie here - and as with another enigmatic genius 15 years his senior - the answer my friend is probably blowing in the wind.

[Mighty]

Fascinating posts both Charlie and Nortons. Been mulling this one over for a while, and trying to avoid pocket talk too…

There’s a lot of discussion about this race or that race for both horses. Yet just like with Willie and the Arkle, where he almost always has one horse, I wonder whether the sheer volume of good horses means his M.O. has to change this year. He’s simply got too many good darts, and with all the entries in the Neville’s as an example, this may well be the year where he breaks moulds. We could easily see both GDM *and* Ramillies line up in the NHC.

[Eggs]

….actually wonder if Tenzing might be an Irish National horse. I recall Mullins running a very inexperienced Kemboy in the IN.

[charlie]

Fascinating posts both Charlie and Nortons. Been mulling this one over for a while, and trying to avoid pocket talk too…

There’s a lot of discussion about this race or that race for both horses. Yet just like with Willie and the Arkle, where he almost always has one horse, I wonder whether the sheer volume of good horses means his M.O. has to change this year. He’s simply got too many good darts, and with all the entries in the Neville’s as an example, this may well be the year where he breaks moulds. We could easily see both GDM *and* Ramillies line up in the NHC.

Yeh his strength and depth could easily force him into multiple runners. He sent 2 to the NHC in 2017 and 2018, even 3 in 2016, but none for the same owners. I do think the likelihood of both running in the NHC is increased because Ramillies looks very suited to the NHC and not much else (as the fez, could be an IN horse). GDM would probably beat him, but there are far worse positions to be in that firing two bullets for the same owner and providing them with a festival winner on day one.

[archie]

I recall Mullins running a very inexperienced Kemboy in the IN.

Thanks (not) for the reminder. It was his 4th chase. Cooper started right out the back and forgot to let him know that the first fence was coming up.

[Eggs]

Thanks (not) for the reminder. It was his 4th chase. Cooper started right out the back and forgot to let him know that the first fence was coming up.

….ha, ha sorry for the reminder, Archie, fortunately lots of happy memories too.

[charlie]

Excited about finally seeing Appreciate It today. As I type this he's 6/1 with PP/BF for the Arkle and 14/1 for the Turners. I can envisage him being cut by more that half in both races if he wins, regardless of the manner or substance of the form. Thinking back through conversations we've all had on here re AI, most the concerns appear to be more about his wellbeing than his actual ability. Providing he wins easily I don't think the form of today will matter too much, its just a stepping stone between now and facing decent Grade 1 company. He's a really interesting horse. The favs for both the Arkle and Turners were inferior hurdlers, so hopefully he can translate his old ability over fences and smash Jonbon into next week. Long way to go mind but at least today is a start.

[Lobos]

I've completely dismissed Appreciate it which is probably good news for the rest of you who have backed him !!!

Just can't see him turning up at the Fez.

[ComplyOrDie]

I've completely dismissed Appreciate it which is probably good news for the rest of you who have backed him !!!

Just can't see him turning up at the Fez.

Why not?

He's not Ferny Hollow. He's turned up to the last 3.

If you said not in the Arkle, I could understand, but don't understand why he won't turn up at the festival.

[Lobos]

Why not?

He's not Ferny Hollow. He's turned up to the last 3.

If you said not in the Arkle, I could understand, but don't understand why he won't turn up at the festival.

Just don't think he'll prove good enough.

[ComplyOrDie]

Just don't think he'll prove good enough.

That's an interesting theory for a Champion Bumper 2nd, Supreme Novice Hurdle 1st and a horse who put a target on his back in the Champion Hurdle last season and only got beat 9 1/4 lengths by Honeysuckle. Doesn't say much for her form if he's not going to be good enough.

[Lobos]

That's an interesting theory for a Champion Bumper 2nd, Supreme Novice Hurdle 1st and a horse who put a target on his back in the Champion Hurdle last season and only got beat 9 1/4 lengths by Honeysuckle. Doesn't say much for her form if he's not going to be good enough.

Just my gut opinion of course. 1 meaningful race in nearly a year and he failed in that when heavily backed and plenty saying it was a poor Churdle. Clearly difficult to train. Not getting any younger. Chasing very late. Still don't know his distance. Not for me.

[ComplyOrDie]

Just my gut opinion of course. 1 meaningful race in nearly a year and he failed in that when heavily backed and plenty saying it was a poor Churdle. Clearly difficult to train. Not getting any younger. Chasing very late. Still don't know his distance. Not for me.

Fair enough.

I don't have an issue with him making the festival but it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up going up in trip at some point.

[isitmarchyet]

Appreciate It snipped into 5s for this already by PP/BF.

I planned to leave Appreciate It unbacked until his target became clearer but I've broken and taken the 12-1 win today + Arkle with Hills!

[Brooksie]

Just my gut opinion of course. 1 meaningful race in nearly a year and he failed in that when heavily backed and plenty saying it was a poor Churdle. Clearly difficult to train. Not getting any younger. Chasing very late. Still don't know his distance. Not for me.

I have the same sort of opinion when it comes to the horses overall profile, he's not a horse I'd want to back at his current odds. I do however think he has the ability based on his novice hurdling days. My issue is that was 2 seasons ago and one run since then coupled with potential injuries would concern me. I'd be more inclined to let him prove things first and back him at shorter odds closer to the time with NRNB terms. Jonbon at the head of the market should prevent his price dipping too much below 3/1. AI might stomp all over the other Mullins horses in a race, but that realistically wouldn't happen until the Dublin Racing Festival and they'll already be the odd firm going NRNB by then.