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Very happy with Ramillies there. Natural over fences isn't he. Post race comments will be interesting.
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I still wouldnt write off Tenzing there as well. Jumped v poorly early and was still there at the business end. The issue I have with Ramillies is I can't see Donnelly wanting to run 2 in the 4 miler if GDM is going. Still a bit to come from Tenzing imo and he'd personally make more appeal at the 33s on offer than the 16s of ramillies who I could easily see in the Brown AdvisoryComment
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I haven't seen any Mullins quotes post race but with his comments about GDM being a grade 1 horse is it not more likely he switches to the BANC and Ramilles runs here.Originally posted by AnFiieLD. View PostComment
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I could be wrong but didn't the Mullins quote say a Grade 1 horse generally rather than Grade 1 at Cheltenham. I think the Neville Chase at Christmas is a Grade 1 so it feels consistent with that quote that this is the Grade 1 chance and he could still end up in the NHC if outperformed there.Originally posted by taylorch1990 View PostComment
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It was nice and professional from Ramillies jumped great for a novice, however I can't help but feel when upped in grade he'll come up short again. I'd be more interested in backing him for the Irish National if he runs respectably in a few graded races along the way.Long bitcoin, long gold, long silver, long g/s opening day Cheltenham FestivalComment
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Ramillies 12/1 for banc!!! PP
looks like a NHC - Irish national type to meComment
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It's an interesting one for sure. The exchange market suggests the 4miler is earmarked for GDM with ?600+ waiting to back him @3.7. Post-race interview with townend suggests Ramilllies works v well at home and that they can aim higher over fences, so I can see them aiming him down the graded route from here. As we all know it's a bit of a guessing game with this stable!Originally posted by taylorch1990 View PostComment
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Willie Mullins on Ramillies:
Mullins said: "He was always a good work horse at home and in his bumper days but disappointed me over hurdles. I think he needs nicer ground and a fence, and Paul was very pleased.
"I put Paul on Tenzing this morning but he said he wanted to ride Ramillies, so I said fair enough. He was right and Ramillies had always been running in better types of competition than Tenzing but just had to put things together.
"He finally put things together today on nice ground and he isn't a real heavy winter horse. There is plenty of nice ground in the spring, he stays and jumps and Paul was very taken with his jumping. Paul gets on well with him.
"I think he will improve and the trip is no problem to him."
Ramillies holds an entry in a Grade 1 novice chase over three miles at Leopardstown over Christmas.
^ 'Paul gets on well with him'...Comment
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Exactly how I see himOriginally posted by Brooksie View Post
If they can get him in the Irish national off something below 145 he'd be the ideal type
I really don't see him as a grade 1 horse as it stands and could see him being outclassed in the NHC tooComment
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hopefully paul gets along with him so well he thinks he wants to ride him in the BANC and makes willie send GDM to the NHC!Originally posted by RoadToCheltenham View PostComment
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It'll depend on how good the likes of minella cocooner, James du berlais and classic getaway are as to whether GDM goes for the BANC or NHC you'd thinkOriginally posted by The Giant Bolster View Post
They will all be highly tried, the best one will go the BANC
If he's not the best GDM surely goes NHC
That's how I see it anyway, won't even attempt to guess what's going through the mind of Willie mullinsComment
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Wouldn't be the most reliable and fluent in his jumping though is he? 2 runs now and hes been slow at best... Worth watching in his next but if there isn't significant improvement, then he'll always been found out at a decent level. Ramillies likely to improve plenty for the debut against a fit Tenzing also.Originally posted by AnFiieLD. View PostComment
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Well done everyone (sadly not me) who piled into Ramillies at 50s - not every day you get on a live one of Willie's at that price.
It's certainly muddied the water even more in the NHC in my opinion.
The owner surely won't want both Gaillard Du Mesnil and Ramillies to run in the race.
But while Gaillard Du Mesnil potentially has bigger fish to fry - the NHC is realistically the only option for Ramillies if they want to run him at Cheltenham.
So I'd say GDM's participation looks much more precarious after today's race.
If GDM goes elsewhere there's still no guarantee Ramillies winds up as Willie's number one - the cards will no doubt be shuffled plenty more before March.
But Ramillies would certainly be in with a very decent shout.
Chief beneficiary in that scenario could be Chemical Energy but on hurdles and bumper form he didn't match Ramillies.
Imagine Ramillies will get an rpr around 145-146 for his chase debut today which Run Wild Fred was unable to better in his first six chase starts before the Irish National.
That's below the 154 handed Chemical Energy for his saunter round Cheltenham in a three-runner race - but you wouldn't put your mortgage on that figure being overly accurate.
So the plot thickens.Last edited by nortonscoin200; 18 December 2022, 02:27 PM.Comment
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nortonscoin200 it's an interesting one, thats for sure.
IMO there is no question that GDM is the Grade 1 horse of the two. I'm desperate for him to go down the BANC route, but the NHC is the easier option and Willie almost always takes the easiest option. We can look at the hundreds of if's, but's and maybe's until we're blue in the face, but I really think it could just be that simple.
I genuinely don't think Willie gives a shit about winning a Grade 1 over a Grade 2 at Cheltenham. A smaller trainer might want 'grade 1 winning festival trainer' at the top of their CV but for Willie it's about leaving Cheltenham with as many winners as possible. There is no escaping that the NHC is less competitive and more winnable than the BANC, and GDM has rock solid credentials. Second season novices do superbly well in the NHC as do horses with 2+ runs at Cheltenham under their belt. I could be wrong, but he's the only horse quoted left in the market that ticks those two important boxes and, he'll secure Patrick. The market is telling us the Donnelly's want GDM to run in the NHC, so I think the NHC is by far the most likely, even after today.
That being said, Willie has said twice now that he thinks GDM is a Grade 1 horse and I've read in the RP that Willie has described the Donnelly's as 'hands off' owners, so, I think GDM's next run could hold the key. He is favourite for the Neville Hotels Novice Chase over 3m and if he were to win that well the the BANC could very well come into play. I suspect NHC backers would prefer to see him not declared, or obviously run well but not win. So many moving pieces. Willie has the top 3 in that Grade 1 so what goes where is anyones guess.
I wouldn't completely rule out both GDM and Ramillies going NHC. The latter would be single figures right now if it weren't for GDM and he's everything you want in a NHC horse. He has multiple festival experience, he stays all day, we know he's a lovely jumper and he'll secure a decent amateur. There aren't really many other races he can go and he wouldn't have the speed or class IMO to win over 3m, whereas I think a proper galloping text over the extra 6f would be right up his street.
An interesting curveball would be Willie sending GDM to Limerick over 2m4f vs Gerri. Far less likely and the market strongly suggests he'll go 3m, but that would throw doubt on the NHC, but at the moment its the most likely for sure.Comment
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