2023 Novice Chasers

[darlojim]

We tried to go chasing with him last season but he got a little niggle at the start of it and missed too much time, so we decided to stay over hurdles. This horse jumps very well at home, is very sharp, this trip will suit him and if he puts it together he’s an exciting prospect over the minimum trip over fences.

Saint Roi

Looking forward to his debut tomorrow, and I think he will put it right up to Fil Dor even with him having a run under his belt and having the age allowance.

[CJW]

When's the next likely race for Galopin Des Champs, the John durkan?

[DenmanSacre]

We tried to go chasing with him last season but he got a little niggle at the start of it and missed too much time, so we decided to stay over hurdles. This horse jumps very well at home, is very sharp, this trip will suit him and if he puts it together he’s an exciting prospect over the minimum trip over fences.

Saint Roi

Looking forward to his debut tomorrow, and I think he will put it right up to Fil Dor even with him having a run under his belt and having the age allowance.

If he can jump well, you'd be hoping he can beat Fil Dor comfortably.

[FinalFurlong91]

If he can jump well, you'd be hoping he can beat Fil Dor comfortably.

I'd be very dubious about saint roi over fences given his breeding and he never looked overly big to my admittedly untrained eye

[Lobos]

All his form is over further on better ground

that he was beaten first time up last season by a much worse horse than classic getsway and jumped left going right handed surely means it is far too early to rule him out

Especially for the BANC

I've completely ruled him out for the BANC on today's performance without a doubt. I'll give him another chance for the Turner's but not sure he's good enough. My opinion of course.

[SeanRock]

MInella Cocooner & Classic Getaway would have finished upsides with maybe a head in the difference had MC not pecked & lost complete momentum on landing after the last.

I’ve no money on either but wouldn’t rule out either on todays showing, they are novice beginners and jumped very well in the main considering that.

[Lobos]

Will Frontal Assault be a big player in the NHC should he win well tomorrow? His Rating may well go up too high to fancy him for the big HCP races so the NHC could be a very tempting alternative.

[Captain Chris]

Fascinating to read all of the opinions on MC. I'm trying to take time to digest performances and not react too quickly (but that risks missing the price/cashout these days). I need to watch it back, but my thoughts now are the same as they were before - based on last year's form and breeding, he's a BANC candidate for me. He thoroughly stayed 3 miles at Cheltenham and Punchestown so that wouldn't be a worry.

I thought he ran a nice enough race today and wasn't losing ground at the line. Back on better ground, with this experience behind him, I'm hoping for an improved performance. As much as I want every antepost horse to go the season unbeaten and blemish free, it's very unlikely to happen and shouldn't mean that a horse is readily dismissed. Fwiw, I cashed out my Turners bet a couple of hours after the race and went in again for the BANC. The field for that race seems to really be lacking in quality (the Turners doesn't look much better).

[FinalFurlong91]

I've completely ruled him out for the BANC on today's performance without a doubt. I'll give him another chance for the Turner's but not sure he's good enough. My opinion of course.

Plenty of horses get beat on the way to the BANC before winning so I'm definitely not giving up on him

Especially when that defeat was first time up on heavy ground

[On The Fringe]

Fascinating to read all of the opinions on MC. I'm trying to take time to digest performances and not react too quickly (but that risks missing the price/cashout these days). I need to watch it back, but my thoughts now are the same as they were before - based on last year's form and breeding, he's a BANC candidate for me. He thoroughly stayed 3 miles at Cheltenham and Punchestown so that wouldn't be a worry.

I thought he ran a nice enough race today and wasn't losing ground at the line. Back on better ground, with this experience behind him, I'm hoping for an improved performance. As much as I want every antepost horse to go the season unbeaten and blemish free, it's very unlikely to happen and shouldn't mean that a horse is readily dismissed. Fwiw, I cashed out my Turners bet a couple of hours after the race and went in again for the BANC. The field for that race seems to really be lacking in quality (the Turners doesn't look much better).

100% agree with this perspective.

In terms of where they go next, I'm thinking Minella Cocooner will go for the 2m4f beginners chase that Galopin Des Champs won at Leopardstown over Xmas. He'll win handsomely and we'll still be in the Turners/RSA limbo.

I can see Classic Getaway going for the 3m (Grade 1 I think) novices chase, won by Monkfish a couple of years ago at Leopardstown over Xmas.

[charlie]

Fascinating to read all of the opinions on MC. I'm trying to take time to digest performances and not react too quickly (but that risks missing the price/cashout these days). I need to watch it back, but my thoughts now are the same as they were before - based on last year's form and breeding, he's a BANC candidate for me. He thoroughly stayed 3 miles at Cheltenham and Punchestown so that wouldn't be a worry.

I thought he ran a nice enough race today and wasn't losing ground at the line. Back on better ground, with this experience behind him, I'm hoping for an improved performance. As much as I want every antepost horse to go the season unbeaten and blemish free, it's very unlikely to happen and shouldn't mean that a horse is readily dismissed. Fwiw, I cashed out my Turners bet a couple of hours after the race and went in again for the BANC. The field for that race seems to really be lacking in quality (the Turners doesn't look much better).

I think you make some interesting points. People are generally far too quick to judge losses and not performances, then get lured into thinking a blemish free CV is whats required to win at the spring festivals. Almost every horse in training is a work in progress, so we'll see better over time. I couldn't believe what I was reading yesterday on social media (the complete pits I know). People putting a line through Minella Cocooner because he finished second on debut. Thinking about BANC winners, for every Monkfish there are normally 4 or 5 who lose on the way and/or are horses we haven't seen yet. Nobody would have even talked about LHP as a 132 rated hurdler this time last year. TOTG didn't win until March. Presenting Percy would have just got beaten 13L by Jury Duty. Might Bite lost on debut, so did Blaklion and the list goes on and on.

As a founding member of the MC BANC fan club I was happy with yesterday. I'd be lying if I didn't say I'd have liked to see him win, but he went from the front and most importantly, settled. Carried his head much better and raced within himself, which was a huge tick for me and more important than the result. He jumped tidely but quite big, and showed tons of scope over his obstacles. I thought he kept on well after his poor jump as the last and hope he comes on for the run. Thinking back to last year, he lost on debut, was then better second time up over further and then won a Grade 1 when stepped up further again. Yesterday gives me no reason to think why WPM wouldn't do the same and I personally wouldn't take 33's for the Turners, much less the 20's currently on offer. He's an exciting chaser though, as is the winner.

Changing topic slightly, do we think Constitution Hill's demolition job in open company will force Willies hand in sending SG over fences? He doesnt strike me as the sort to be deterred by one horse or change plans around others, but with State Man over hurdles how many superstars is he going to be willing to sacrifice at the hands of a horse he probably now calls Constitution Hell.

[Stormez]

On the basis of it being his first run of the season & the heavy going, I’m happy to move onto his next run & judge him more decisively on that.

As first runs go it was satisfactory, he jumped well & most importantly looked much more settled than last season.

As for future targets don’t think it leant me one way or the other, both are still feasible. His next entry will reveal more of Willies thinking I believe.

[Exar Essay]

It’s a really interesting one. But for that obvious mistake at the last, I think there’d have been a head in it. Paul didn’t touch MC after that mistake. I’ve always been impressed with how well he stays on in his races when beaten. He doesn’t switch off, the light doesn’t go out. In my view he definitely stays. The only question in my mind is there another one better?

Yesterday there was in Classic Getaway. And if reports are to be beloved Classic Getaway was carrying an awful lot of condition yesterday, so you’d have thought he’d come on for the run too.

My view is that both looked like BANC horses. 2m4f on that ground and both hit the line well enough.

Over 2m3f on good ground. I’m not sure MC has the pace. I’d certainly prefer a Sir Gerhard or Appreciate it.

[Lobos]

Yes Charlie, I do think that performance yesterday from CH will have made up Willies mind on both SG and Vauban. Neither will take him on. Can see it being the smallest Churdle field ever if he gets there safely. I do also think Epatante will still run in it and pick up place prize money as opposed to going the Mares route.

[Quevega]

100% agree with this perspective.

In terms of where they go next, I'm thinking Minella Cocooner will go for the 2m4f beginners chase that Galopin Des Champs won at Leopardstown over Xmas. He'll win handsomely and we'll still be in the Turners/RSA limbo.

I can see Classic Getaway going for the 3m (Grade 1 I think) novices chase, won by Monkfish a couple of years ago at Leopardstown over Xmas.

I’d say this is likely also.
One of willies habits is usually to go up the ladder and so this may ultimately influence Cheltenham targets
As minella winning a beginners at Xmas would likely mean a step into graded company at Dublin festival.
just like GDC. So no 3 Miles before Cheltenham
They’ve all got to do it on the course though first