2023 Novice Chasers

[Lobos]

Monmiral....

Nicholls said: “We’ll still head off to Sandown, I’d say, for the Henry VIII (also the target for Jonbon) – that was always our plan. Stiffer track, softer ground – that would be in our favour a little bit.

“I asked Harry if we wanted to step up to two and a half, but he said ‘no, he just had a bit of a blow jumping the third-last’, the winner got away and he stayed on up the straight.


“He said, ‘don’t be afraid to go for the better races and stick to our plan’, so we will.

“He came in about a month later than all our other horses, so he’ll probably take a step forward. He’ll need to, to beat Jonbon, mind.

“I must admit, I was a bit worried about whether he’d jump as well as he did, just because he’s been a bit ‘French’ jumping his hurdles, but he was good, and we can build on that enormously.”

[charlie]

To play devils advocate

el fabiolo had every chance to go past jonbon but he got outbattled, interference or not he got upsides and maybe even headed jonbon before he found enough to win

And Jonbon must've had an incredibly hard race in the Supreme a few weeks before, he and dysart dynamo set a suicidal gallop. El Fabiolo however was fresh and primed.

Was he near his best at Aintree? Perfectly possible he wasn't

But then El Fabiolo is a year younger and less experienced

I'm on both so don't need to chose between them but the point about how hard a race jonbon had in the Supreme before he took on el fabiolo doesn't seem to get mentioned

And he'd have surely run a bigger figure in the Supreme had they not gone so fast, he walked across the line knackered

Hmm, I think we can agree to disagree on this one. EF was hampered by the faller 3 out which cost him at least a length (probably more), then he made a mistake at the last and lost maybe a length. With such a fine winning margin I believe those incidents matter, but they're closely rated I think. I don't buy the tough Cheltenham chat at all in this instance - on ratings Jonbon actually ran much better at Aintree and at Cheltenham he sat off DD, travelled well in behind then AC didn't throw the kitchen sink at him when he was beat. No harm no foul. I think Appreciate It would beat them both tbh. Over to WPM now. Exciting times ahead.

[Istabraq]

Sounds like you're inclined to doubt the quality of those in behind CH in the supreme, rather than rate him exceptional.
.

I probably have it down as a bit of both if I’m honest Q.
When a horse demolishes a Supreme field the way he did then he has to be exceptional, but an almost effortless 20+ length win has to raise questions about those behind and whilst I accept it’s way too early to write horses off those in behind don’t look a great bunch, a crude line through Bring on the Night would put El Fabiolo ahead of Jonbon.
Dysart Dynamo could still prove to be a good horse and if he were to go chasing and line up in an Arkle he’d be a runner…

[Istabraq]

I should also clarify that my issue isn’t that Jonbon is no good, it’s that his price is horrific….

[Benjy23]

Hard not to be impressed by that isn't it. You can criticise the price all you like but 5/2 after that, when he was 7/2 before, is actually very generous to be honest.

The fact he wasn't foot perfect at every fence on chase debut and still won comfortably, against a G1 hurdler, to me is a good thing. He showed he can jump one or two very well, and will surely improve on that number through experience, and also showed he can adapt when getting in too close etc.

He's very much bred to be a 2m chaser as well isn't he?

Don't really see what's not to like to be honest.

There's two horses that could realistically challenge him in my opinion. El Fab and DD. Neither of which are as obviously bred to be 2 mile chasers? And both of which he's actually got a beating of over hurdles in the book. Tend to agree with the theory that the Aintree Jonbon wasn't the best version of him as well, and he's probably even further clear of El Fab.

He's solid to be honest.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think Appreciate It would beat them both tbh. Over to WPM now. Exciting times ahead.

I don't know if you watch Road To Cheltenham but Ruby mentioned he could see Appreciate It going out in trip. Thinks he jumped his hurdles big and if he's the same over fences then he'd lose ground at them.

Obviously Ruby isn't Willie, but he's one of his assistants and I'm sure he listens to what they have to say still.

[DenmanSacre]

Jonbon and Constitution Hill ran too fast early on. They and DD were essentially in a race of their own and you can ignore how close Kilcruit etc finished behind Jonbon. His 149 RPR for the Supreme is lower than he was capable of on that day if running at a more sensible pace.

If DD stood up, it would have been interesting to see who would have got the better out of him and Jonbon.

[FinalFurlong91]

I should also clarify that my issue isn’t that Jonbon is no good, it’s that his price is horrific….

I can't imagine anyone would disagree

He was a horrific price at 7/2 pre race too

Can't see why he'd gone from 7/1 all the way to 7/2 in the last month or so having not done anything

He will surely go off no shorter than 6/4 on the day, though i can see him being odds on ante post if he is unbeaten then drifting in the build up to the race

[FinalFurlong91]

I don't know if you watch Road To Cheltenham but Ruby mentioned he could see Appreciate It going out in trip. Thinks he jumped his hurdles big and if he's the same over fences then he'd lose ground at them.

Obviously Ruby isn't Willie, but he's one of his assistants and I'm sure he listens to what they have to say still.

In my mind I had him pencilled in as more of a turner's horse

But then I thought he was a ballymore horse too

[Istabraq]

I can't imagine anyone would disagree

He was a horrific price at 7/2 pre race too

Can't see why he'd gone from 7/1 all the way to 7/2 in the last month or so having not done anything

He will surely go off no shorter than 6/4 on the day, though i can see him being odds on ante post if he is unbeaten then drifting in the build up to the race

Have to say it’s not a market I’ve followed closely in recent weeks and wasn’t aware he was as short as 7/2 before today.
Like so many impressive UK horses, they’re priced as if the Irish aren’t coming over and they have a handful of genuine contenders.
I seem to remember we were in pretty much the same boat last year with Third Time Lucki…

[ComplyOrDie]

But then I thought he was a ballymore horse too

I don't think you were alone in your thinking about the Ballymore and had Ferny not got injured it's likely that's the route he would have gone too, I imagine.

[Exar Essay]

I just can't see how he isn't longer on the day. Monmiral is, feasibly, the best horse he'll have to face all year. The only other pretender would be Tommy's Oscar.

The anointed one for Willie will need to have the beating of Flame Bearer, Dysart Dynamo, El Fabiolo, and maybe Appreciate It, and probably one of Sir Gerhard/State Man (minus the anointed one themselves of course). It's also likely that Willie's best will have raced against or at least have a line through Banbridge, Hollow Games, Mighty Potter. Surely that form will be rated higher than Jonbon no matter what Jonbon does from here on out.

Even with what Con Hill did last year, he still went off 9/4JF with Dysart Dynamo for the Supreme. And DD didn't even have the collateral form with Willie's others (Sir Gerhard, El Fab, Bring on the Night, Kilcruit, State Man) as they'd been kept apart. So we didn't even know he was the best of them.

[Quevega]

I just can't see how he isn't longer on the day. Monmiral is, feasibly, the best horse he'll have to face all year. The only other pretender would be Tommy's Oscar.

The anointed one for Willie will need to have the beating of Flame Bearer, Dysart Dynamo, El Fabiolo, and maybe Appreciate It, and probably one of Sir Gerhard/State Man (minus the anointed one themselves of course). It's also likely that Willie's best will have raced against or at least have a line through Banbridge, Hollow Games, Mighty Potter. Surely that form will be rated higher than Jonbon no matter what Jonbon does from here on out.

Even with what Con Hill did last year, he still went off 9/4JF with Dysart Dynamo for the Supreme. And DD didn't even have the collateral form with Willie's others (Sir Gerhard, El Fab, Bring on the Night, Kilcruit, State Man) as they'd been kept apart. So we didn't even know he was the best of them.

Yeah. I agree.
That's why the price now is so bad.
But if the form in Ireland is muddy for some reason then he could also go off odds on.
This has happened before but usually when the best in Ireland is ruled out through injury.

[Brooksie]

I just can't see how he isn't longer on the day. Monmiral is, feasibly, the best horse he'll have to face all year. The only other pretender would be Tommy's Oscar.

The anointed one for Willie will need to have the beating of Flame Bearer, Dysart Dynamo, El Fabiolo, and maybe Appreciate It, and probably one of Sir Gerhard/State Man (minus the anointed one themselves of course). It's also likely that Willie's best will have raced against or at least have a line through Banbridge, Hollow Games, Mighty Potter. Surely that form will be rated higher than Jonbon no matter what Jonbon does from here on out.

Even with what Con Hill did last year, he still went off 9/4JF with Dysart Dynamo for the Supreme. And DD didn't even have the collateral form with Willie's others (Sir Gerhard, El Fab, Bring on the Night, Kilcruit, State Man) as they'd been kept apart. So we didn't even know he was the best of them.

It's a good point, realistically speaking what else is there to race against, you look at the top novice hurdlers here in the UK from last season and there's nothing that could give him a race. Tommy's Oscar pinged every fence jumped beautifully and couldn't get near Banbridge. How's he going to get near Jonbon? The worrying thing for Jonbon backers would be him having no race at all in his next few outings and then heading to Cheltenham against the Irish that will have had experience jumping in competitive fields.

Could Willie perhaps bring one of his over to see where they stand? Maybe..although with the lack of competition here in the UK that could benefit Jonbon actually having a race.

[charlie]

I don't know if you watch Road To Cheltenham but Ruby mentioned he could see Appreciate It going out in trip. Thinks he jumped his hurdles big and if he's the same over fences then he'd lose ground at them.

Obviously Ruby isn't Willie, but he's one of his assistants and I'm sure he listens to what they have to say still.

Yeh I saw that but he says that about loads and he has to say something