2023 Novice Chasers

[darlojim]

Gaillard Du Mesnil with an entry this weekend over 2m3... I'd say its probably unlikely that he will take up that but at least you know his well being is fine with then entry. Am I right in saying he is already qualified for the race, or is there a rule where you've got to qualify in that season?

[charlie]

I don't think we'll know how good they truly are until we get into December and we start hitting the grade 1's. Personally, I don't get too invested with what I see first time out. Most are undercooked and really only out to get some experience fencing in public. I imagine the ones that fenced poorly will go through more intense schooling. We'll then get a better idea if they're natural chasing sorts when running at championship pace over Christmas. What we do know though is how good they were novice hurdling and the fact MP won 2 grade 1's over a trip too short has me thinking he'll have some sort of say if he takes to fences.

Waiting for Grade 1 form obviously makes sense, but it's extremely difficult to do that and find value nowadays. 10 years ago it would have been relatively easy/normal to 2X your original stake at 8's post Grade 1 than take 16's pre Grade 1. You'd have had time back then post race, or in running, to form an opinion and weigh up the form. Not all bookmakers would react as quickly as others and we could use Grade 1 form as a foundation to define what we think constitutes as value. The betting landscape has now changed completely. Markets are suspended in play, mass cuts follow debut wins (seemingly regardless of form), even off cuff comments from Ruby like saying 'Appreciate It will take some beating in the Turners' would see the market crash and he'd go favourite. I'm not saying people should abandon waiting for Grade 1 form, but I do think there is profitable balance where punters can identify red herrings from a debut run to rule out some, whilst seeing enough to back others. 7/1 for GC today is so so bad. For that price you'd want him to have won a Grade 1 over 3m on his second start vs a properly competitive field and for the trainer to come out and literally say 'all roads lead to the BANC'. Whats actually happened is he's won on debut well vs a good but normal looking field, over and intermediate trip the day after Robcour said he could be an Irish National horse'. It's so so bad

[Brooksie]

Waiting for Grade 1 form obviously makes sense, but it's extremely difficult to do that and find value nowadays. 10 years ago it would have been relatively easy/normal to 2X your original stake at 8's post Grade 1 than take 16's pre Grade 1. You'd have had time back then post race, or in running, to form an opinion and weigh up the form. Not all bookmakers would react as quickly as others and we could use Grade 1 form as a foundation to define what we think constitutes as value. The betting landscape has now changed completely. Markets are suspended in play, mass cuts follow debut wins (seemingly regardless of form), even off cuff comments from Ruby like saying 'Appreciate It will take some beating in the Turners' would see the market crash and he'd go favourite. I'm not saying people should abandon waiting for Grade 1 form, but I do think there is profitable balance where punters can identify red herrings from a debut run to rule out some, whilst seeing enough to back others. 7/1 for GC today is so so bad. For that price you'd want him to have won a Grade 1 over 3m on his second start vs a properly competitive field and for the trainer to come out and literally say 'all roads lead to the BANC'. Whats actually happened is he's won on debut well vs a good but normal looking field, over and intermediate trip the day after Robcour said he could be an Irish National horse'. It's so so bad

Completely agree, I've not even had an ante post bet for Cheltenham yet and it's likely I won't until NRNB arrives. With the concentration of good horses in only a handful of yards its a struggle figuring out what races they'll run in, and that's if they even show up at all what with injury and other targets in spring. Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown I can see why some owners are happy to let some of their horses stay behind, the prize money is just as good if not better in some cases. When I see a horses price collapse after jogging round in a beginners chase I think of the above and then ask myself is the risk to reward right and more often than not the answer is no.

[Ray]

At this moment in time I think Mighty Potter will be the Arkle horse, TSL for the Turners and Gerri Colombe in the Brown Advisory, if only it was all that simple but a decent performance from Hollow Games makes his next entry of interest.

where would you put saint felicien, hes got a big future

[Ray]

Ive been thinking about backing james du berlais for the rsa..it doesnt seem like mullins has many staying novice chasers and i could see him being his number 1..hes also at 20/1 which is of interest..if he had this season over hurdles hed be fresh in the memory and be between 10 and 5/1..im backing him for this off the back of the 158rpr he put up when running behind klassical dream at punchestown champion stayers hurdle on his second start for mullins, hes got stamina and they have taken there time with him, hes well thought of and that stable tour mullins seems to think hell take high rank, i wasnt keen on geri visually today either

[charlie]

Completely agree, I've not even had an ante post bet for Cheltenham yet and it's likely I won't until NRNB arrives. With the concentration of good horses in only a handful of yards its a struggle figuring out what races they'll run in, and that's if they even show up at all what with injury and other targets in spring. Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown I can see why some owners are happy to let some of their horses stay behind, the prize money is just as good if not better in some cases. When I see a horses price collapse after jogging round in a beginners chase I think of the above and then ask myself is the risk to reward right and more often than not the answer is no.

I recommend reading last years diaries for some ante post inspiration - plenty of people turn a handsome profit, so its very doable and there are lots of different strategies.

Price collapses following facile debut wins are my new bookie bug bear. Jonbon could beat a 110 rated 9 year old tomorrow in a match bet and the bookies would still clip him for winning 4L.

[YoungHustler]

From a team planning perspective, maybe, but I wouldn't have Mighty Potter anywhere near an Arkle. Everything he did over hurdles screamed go up in trip IMO and the way he jumped on debut was ordinary. I'm sure he'll improve and will need to, but I think Gordon citing intermediate trips at the start of the season is bang on, and I'd actually rather see him try 3m than 2m.

Couldn't agree with you more and it's quite scary(for my pocket) that Gordon may now be aiming him down the Arkle route as I can't see him running Saturday and then 2 weeks later in the Drinmore, with the Gr1 over 2 miles over Christmas a more likely option.

[Lobos]

Gaillard Du Mesnil with an entry this weekend over 2m3... I'd say its probably unlikely that he will take up that but at least you know his well being is fine with then entry. Am I right in saying he is already qualified for the race, or is there a rule where you've got to qualify in that season?

Yes, he's already qualified for the NHC.

[Hurricane fly]

I had MP down for the Arkle to start with but have cashed some of the money I had down on him.

I wouldn't consider Fil Dor a risk to where he may go, a) Triumph horses often need to step up and b) I just don't think FD is any good. I thought he straight up bullied SG at Punchestown over 2.

The supreme was run on lightning ground compared to a normal Tuesday and he also played up pre race - think he ran into some rails etc - so slight pinch of salt for me.

That plus Gordon's options mean it wouldn't be a surprise to see him there, although comments here have swayed me to move 2pts from Arkle to Turners just incase

[FinalFurlong91]

Personally I don't think mighty potter has much chance in either of the races

Not a horse iv ever taken too personally

And his punchestown win isn't good form, sir gerhard ran no race at all

He beat gatsby grey by 4 lengths, that isn't grade 1 form

There will be 2 or 3 better than him I'm each division in my opinion

If he raced banbridge id be very surprised if mighty potter didnt come off second best. I'm not sure he'd even beat hollow games or three stripe life over 2m4f let alone the mullins battalion.

[Quevega]

Personally I don't think mighty potter has much chance in either of the races

Not a horse iv ever taken too personally

And his punchestown win isn't good form, sir gerhard ran no race at all

He beat gatsby grey by 4 lengths, that isn't grade 1 form

There will be 2 or 3 better than him I'm each division in my opinion

If he raced banbridge id be very surprised if mighty potter didnt come off second best. I'm not sure he'd even beat hollow games or three stripe life over 2m4f let alone the mullins battalion.

Don't forget he won 2 grade 1's as a novice hurdler and had an excuse at Cheltenham. So this probablt suggests it was no fluke.
Think he's better judged when jumping at a more competitive pace.
You may be right, but you're only saying this (the banbridge bit) now.

[charlie]

Don't forget he won 2 grade 1's as a novice hurdler and had an excuse at Cheltenham. So this probablt suggests it was no fluke.
Think he's better judged when jumping at a more competitive pace.
You may be right, but you're only saying this (the banbridge bit) now.

Those Grade 1's are easy to forget though aren't they? He'd have lost had TSL not made a mistake + posted a rubbish time and RPR, then went on to beat a 140 rated 100/1 shot 4L after the market principles under performed. I really want Mighty Potter to be a brilliant chaser and completely agree he'll be best judged in a more competitive race.

[Eggs]

….Jonbon win today & Arkle 13/2 with PP, only 7/2 Hills.

[isitmarchyet]

I hope Jonbon looks like a star today. I know it's early in the season but we've had a few decent horses out already and I've been a bit underwhelmed by most of them. Hoping we see one to get a bit excited about this afternoon.

[ComplyOrDie]

I hope Jonbon looks like a star today. I know it's early in the season but we've had a few decent horses out already and I've been a bit underwhelmed by most of them. Hoping we see one to get a bit excited about this afternoon.

For my bets I'd most definitely want Jonbon to look like an absolute star, however, I'd also take Monmiral to go well. West Cork would probably be a nightmare for most members on here, I'd imagine.

Exciting times though.