2023 Novice Chasers

[Odin]

Tommy's oscar was given an RPR of 156 for his chase debut. Only 2 arkle winners in the previous 10 years have bettered that on their debut, Altior and shishkin both achieved 160.
For Tommy's oscar to line up in the arkle he would have to be in with a shout, as you mentioned the hamiltons never had much luck with their few runners there.
So I'm not so sure if he did actually make it to the race you'd likely get a decent price on the day, Nowhere near what's available now.

"They went fast and didn't hang about. TOMMY'S OSCAR was badly in need of a run and will come on a ton. He jumped like a buck and straight as a dye, so he's a super jumper. We only schooled him once but he's run in point-to-points in the past. We'll look at the valuable graduation race here next month and if he goes and wins that we'll probably stop over fences. A lot of people say you shouldn't go back to hurdles [once you go chasing] but I'm pleased we've got him and he's a fair horse - Ian Hamilton, owner."

I have reservations about the RPR he was given for his chase debut given it was a match race, which can be incredibly difficult to rate, but putting those aside just wanted to make sure you (and anyone else who may be interested in him) had seen these owner quotes after that race. Looks like they don't see his long term future over fences. Saying it this early after what was obviously a good performance slightly confuses me though

[charlie]

"They went fast and didn't hang about. TOMMY'S OSCAR was badly in need of a run and will come on a ton. He jumped like a buck and straight as a dye, so he's a super jumper. We only schooled him once but he's run in point-to-points in the past. We'll look at the valuable graduation race here next month and if he goes and wins that we'll probably stop over fences. A lot of people say you shouldn't go back to hurdles [once you go chasing] but I'm pleased we've got him and he's a fair horse - Ian Hamilton, owner."

I have reservations about the RPR he was given for his chase debut given it was a match race, which can be incredibly difficult to rate, but putting those aside just wanted to make sure you (and anyone else who may be interested in him) had seen these owner quotes after that race. Looks like they don't see his long term future over fences. Saying it this early after what was obviously a good performance slightly confuses me though

Very useful info. All a bit weird IMO. You have a horse who has run to an RPR of 156 on debut (fair to question) that badly needed the run and will come on a ton and the owner says they'll probably stop over fence when his when his limitations over hurdles are well advertised. That didn''t make sense, then I looked at the prize money he won pre Champion Hurdle. Will easily scoop 100k+ pre March if campaigned similarly which is more money than finishing second or worse in the champion, which we know he just wont do. I understand owners who want to cover their costs and win decent prize money but they could be a bit more ambitious. This fella is by Oscar who has produced winners of the QMCC, Ballymore, Champion Hurdle, Stayers Hurdle, Gold Cup and RSA. He is a superb sire and you'd think they'd set their sights a little higher. Having said that, what would I do. Go down a chasing campaign that involves trecking up and down the country running into every decent novice chaser at every major yard or win 50 grand in Scotland and cherry picking easier races at Haydock and Doncaster. Their call I suppose.

[DenmanSacre]

Very useful info. All a bit weird IMO. You have a horse who has run to an RPR of 156 on debut (fair to question) that badly needed the run and will come on a ton and the owner says they'll probably stop over fence when his when his limitations over hurdles are well advertised. That didn''t make sense, then I looked at the prize money he won pre Champion Hurdle. Will easily scoop 100k+ pre March if campaigned similarly which is more money than finishing second or worse in the champion, which we know he just wont do. I understand owners who want to cover their costs and win decent prize money but they could be a bit more ambitious. This fella is by Oscar who has produced winners of the QMCC, Ballymore, Champion Hurdle, Stayers Hurdle, Gold Cup and RSA. He is a superb sire and you'd think they'd set their sights a little higher. Having said that, what would I do. Go down a chasing campaign that involves trecking up and down the country running into every decent novice chaser at every major yard or win 50 grand in Scotland and cherry picking easier races at Haydock and Doncaster. Their call I suppose.

I think they've already ruled out Cheltenham anyway - they think he prefers flat tracks and didn't like the crowd this year.

As you say, he could cherry pick some of the Northern graded novice chases, but if the hurdles are worth more, I think they'll go for them as the competition in those races isn't the best.

[charlie]

I think they've already ruled out Cheltenham anyway - they think he prefers flat tracks and didn't like the crowd this year.

As you say, he could cherry pick some of the Northern graded novice chases, but if the hurdles are worth more, I think they'll go for them as the competition in those races isn't the best.

Tbf the more I think about it the more it makes sense. Easy to say 'they have to go Arkle' but the money to be made over hurdles up north is really good.

[AaronLad]

Thanks Odin for that information, that had passed me by.
I can certainly understand their thinking, must be difficult getting by with a limited string.
its a shame really because he was fat as a pig at Carlisle and still put in a solid performance, I think there could be so much more to come from him as a chaser.

[Lobos]

Reading Patrick's piece in the RP Jump Off I do get the feeling they are toying with the idea of keeping The Nice Guy over Hurdles. Plus they certainly haven't made their minds up whether to send Sir Gerhard or even State Man Chasing. There's even a suggestion that Brandy Love may go chasing in view of her being a PTP winner. Proper Bingo again this season.

[That Horse]

Reading Patrick's piece in the RP Jump Off I do get the feeling they are toying with the idea of keeping The Nice Guy over Hurdles. Plus they certainly haven't made their minds up whether to send Sir Gerhard or even State Man Chasing. There's even a suggestion that Brandy Love may go chasing in view of her being a PTP winner. Proper Bingo again this season.

Reading any Patrick Mullins' piece, I do get the feeling I'm eating a massive pinch of salt. I've certainly made my mind up to disregard anything that comes out of his mouth at this time of year.
Has he ever publicly tipped a winner?

EDIT - to give him credit, his article on Wicklow Brave losing his life at the American Grand National was heartbreaking and his column is always interesting to read but him writing about the current crop of Willie's horses is usually a masterclass of much ado about nothing.

[RoadToCheltenham]

Reading Patrick's piece in the RP Jump Off I do get the feeling they are toying with the idea of keeping The Nice Guy over Hurdles. Plus they certainly haven't made their minds up whether to send Sir Gerhard or even State Man Chasing. There's even a suggestion that Brandy Love may go chasing in view of her being a PTP winner. Proper Bingo again this season.

I'd be very surprised if Sir Gerhard stays over hurdles. This is just Patrick being Patrick - his articles make for great reading but certainly wouldn't be backing anything or being put off anything based on his comments in the Racing Post.

[Exar Essay]

Reading Patrick's piece in the RP Jump Off I do get the feeling they are toying with the idea of keeping The Nice Guy over Hurdles. Plus they certainly haven't made their minds up whether to send Sir Gerhard or even State Man Chasing. There's even a suggestion that Brandy Love may go chasing in view of her being a PTP winner. Proper Bingo again this season.

Don't suppose you'd mind sharing the wording for The Nice Guy?

[Odin]

Don't suppose you'd mind sharing the wording for The Nice Guy?

I think it's reference to this - if so, much ado about nothing for me; if not, I'd also like to know what exactly was said please

"The Nice Guy surprised and surprised last year, never once finishing last. Stayers’ or Brown Advisory? National Hunt Chase? He walks off the gallop after the first lap, his work done.

Minella Cocooner jumps off for a second lap. He came from John Nallen’s famed nursery and who’s to say a fence won’t bring about even more improvement from him."

[Exar Essay]

I think it's reference to this - if so, much ado about nothing for me; if not, I'd also like to know what exactly was said please

"The Nice Guy surprised and surprised last year, never once finishing last. Stayers’ or Brown Advisory? National Hunt Chase? He walks off the gallop after the first lap, his work done.

Minella Cocooner jumps off for a second lap. He came from John Nallen’s famed nursery and who’s to say a fence won’t bring about even more improvement from him."

Thanks. I genuinely don't even know what that quote means

[Odin]

Thanks. I genuinely don't even know what that quote means

To be fair, it's noticeable that only chasing is mentioned for Cocooner so if they were the two potential darts for RSA you could try and read between the lines there. The stuff others have said about TNG's breeding being questionable for fences has also dimmed my confidence slightly but I still expect him to go chasing and to go for the RSA

[Lobos]

Thanks. I genuinely don't even know what that quote means

Just take it they don't see him as an Arkle, Turner's or Champion Hurdler !

[Exar Essay]

To be fair, it's noticeable that only chasing is mentioned for Cocooner so if they were the two potential darts for RSA you could try and read between the lines there. The stuff others have said about TNG's breeding being questionable for fences has also dimmed my confidence slightly but I still expect him to go chasing and to go for the RSA

Yeah. Just very funnily written. Almost like prose.

Anyway, I watched the two races back; AB and Punchestown. I recall being more impressed with Minella Cocooner than The Nice Guy at Punchestown and recalled MC seeming to stay on better than TNG. But on reflection, the way TNG kept MC at a lengths disadvantage after he came back at him slightly was very impressive. Went in to the rewatch expecting to be convinced MC was the bet. But actually, I'm siding with TNG more than ever. The one thing in MC's favour is that TNG was making up ground at his hurdles - he looked to have an excellent technique. Maybe that advantage will be reduced, or reversed over fences.

[charlie]

Thanks. I genuinely don't even know what that quote means

It's a super weird piece that I wouldn't read much in to. Fair play to GE tho, he came out with quite a few and said 'X' in the plan. Patrick Mullins the polar opposite, but to be expected.