2023 Novice Chasers

[darlojim]

BHA shows Ash Tree Meadow with an entry in the 2m Novives Chase on Friday. Assume he'll get an entry for the Saturday 3m Novice Chase tomorrow as well

When will tomorrows entries be released?

[RoadToCheltenham]

When will tomorrows entries be released?

Saturday's entries should be made by 12pm tomorrow. Although could be 12pm Monday with tomorrow being a Sunday...

Either way, entries for the Friday are in now & will be live on BHA & Racing Post later today.

[Lobos]

BHA shows Ash Tree Meadow with an entry in the 2m Novives Chase on Friday. Assume he'll get an entry for the Saturday 3m Novice Chase tomorrow as well

Switch hope with assume and that'll be where I am. Whatever Gordon enters for that 3m race is a must for NHC portfolios.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

The Goffer entered against Idas Boy tomorrow at Cork. I wonder if he will be Gordon's Ultima horse?

[Kevloaf]

The Goffer entered against Idas Boy tomorrow at Cork. I wonder if he will be Gordon's Ultima horse?

Not sure th'ats worth knowing given his record in that race.... unexplicably

[ComplyOrDie]

I noticed Idas Boy has been declared for the 2m4f Beginners Chase at Cork on Sunday, could be one that turns out for the NH Chase down the line?

Obviously lacks the class of a Gaillard Du Mesnil, based on all known hurdles form, but his form isn't poor by any stretch. Looks bred for a trip too, however, I am a little disappointed, but not surprised, to see his top price for the race is only 20/1. I was expecting 33's.

Anyone have any thoughts about this one?

Really good debut from him today. Still 20's with Hills, which I've had a small stab at now.

Really like his breeding for the race. Not sure, as others have said, whether he'll be aimed more at a National of some sort, but only time will tell now.

[darlojim]

Paddy Mullins in the Big Jump Off RP

Vauban, State Man and Sir Gerhard walk in a line just behind him. Who will stand in his way? Vauban perhaps, Melbourne Cup plans on hold until he shows he isn’t a Champion Hurdle horse. Priorities please. Quick and rapid, he could be the one juvenile a decade who steps up to open company.

The other two, chasing or hurdling? School them and see I suppose. Sir Gerhard, with his big white face, has won a point-to-point. But so had Faugheen. And Honeysuckle. It’s not simple.


It is paddy after all though, basically says they all can go anywhere

[Lobos]

I think we've all assumed Sir Gerhard will go chasing but on what basis? Nothing concrete has been said has it ? Could he still be Willies best Champion Hurdle horse ? We don't know do we. Take him away and Willie must rely on a 5yo and a County Hurdle winner.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I think we've all assumed Sir Gerhard will go chasing but on what basis? Nothing concrete has been said has it ? Could he still be Willies best Champion Hurdle horse ? We don't know do we. Take him away and Willie must rely on a 5yo and a County Hurdle winner.

Two reasons, other than a Triumph and County winner being at his disposal, spring to mind:

1) He comes from a point to point background, so he can clearly jump
2) He is already 7, so it’s now or never really. ie no extra year to have a crack at the Champion Hurdle and then go chasing.

[Lobos]

Two reasons, other than a Triumph and County winner being at his disposal, spring to mind:

1) He comes from a point to point background, so he can clearly jump
2) He is already 7, so it’s now or never really. ie no extra year to have a crack at the Champion Hurdle and then go chasing.

1) Doesn't mean anything.

2) Maybe he'll never go Chasing

Not easy is it. Bingo.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

1) Doesn't mean anything.

2) Maybe he'll never go Chasing

Not easy is it. Bingo.

1) Coming from a point to point background clearly means something. It’s obviously preferable at this stage for a horse to have some experience jumping fences than not. For example, preferable over a horse with a Flat background.

2) He may not ever go chasing but it is certainly relevant as a factor in the decision, albeit not the only one.

[Lobos]

I'm thinking of reasons that he'll not stay hurdling and go down the Champion Hurdle route as opposed to reasons to go chasing. He's rated 155, same as Vauban with Stateman on 159. There's not much between them so anything can happen.

[Hurricane fly]

I think we've all assumed Sir Gerhard will go chasing but on what basis? Nothing concrete has been said has it ? Could he still be Willies best Champion Hurdle horse ? We don't know do we. Take him away and Willie must rely on a 5yo and a County Hurdle winner.

He doesn't jump a hurdle quick enough for the CH would be the main reason he won't be going for the CH.

You would also say that assume he can jump a fence then you would say that the Turners will be the easier race to win aswell, and Willie is about winning.

[HesTheOne]

Paddy Mullins in the Big Jump Off RP
Sir Gerhard, with his big white face, has won a point-to-point. But so had Faugheen. And Honeysuckle. It’s not simple.

It is paddy after all though, basically says they all can go anywhere

Paddy Mullins also said after SG loss at punchestown “He's won a point-to-point, so do you go chasing? That might be a slightly easier division than the Champion Hurdle”

Willie Mullins quotes after his loss “Vauban and State Man look Champion Hurdle material - Sir Gerhard could still be but he was disappointing”

Mullins has seen he has the ability for it “Sir Gerhard could be Champion Hurdle material, he has a Flat pedigree and I think he's fast enough”

But we also know Mullins apprehension of Sir G facing C.H "We're probably lucky we avoided Constitution Hill on the day”

Take the fear of CH out of the equation and Cheveley Park/Mullins may just want a stab at the champion hurdle with SG.

It’s well covered how strong Mullins is in novice chase division this year, could he cover each of these races without SG? It’s for debate but possible

In the past 10 Champion Hurdles he has had 3 or more runners in 5 of the races and only had 1 runner on 2 occasions. As it stands he has State Man (Donnellys) and Vauban(Ricci) as his two darts for the champ hurdle. It may just not be off the cards for Willie to prep SG.That way each of 3 of his big owners to have a ticket to the champion race. The main deterrent is C.H of course.

Few scenarios leave the door open either (1) Mullins is confident enough his novice team is covered (2) any setback to C.Hill leaves the door open (3) equally same for State Man/Vauban (4) equally any set back to Sir G and he could easily be held back for champ hurdle run like Appreciate It, before then advancing over fences next season.

I don’t see it as it stands but things can change which can force Mullins hand.

[AaronLad]

I think from what connections have said - he probably won't be seen at Cheltenham. In their view they've never had much luck with their few runners there - they rolled the dice last season and he got too lit up.

More likely to mop up races in the north and aim for something at Aintree - so i would hold off on antepost. Likely still get a decent price on the day if he did actually make the it to the race.

Tommy's oscar was given an RPR of 156 for his chase debut. Only 2 arkle winners in the previous 10 years have bettered that on their debut, Altior and shishkin both achieved 160.
For Tommy's oscar to line up in the arkle he would have to be in with a shout, as you mentioned the hamiltons never had much luck with their few runners there.
So I'm not so sure if he did actually make it to the race you'd likely get a decent price on the day, Nowhere near what's available now.