2023 Novice Chasers

[RufusFlynn]

yep I think the positives are he is likely to be aimed at the arkle, he jumped well for first time over fences and has a good hurdles rating. the negatives are he probably jumped well enough there's not a lot of obvious improvement in that area and against the real grade 1 hurdle performers he looked out of his depth imo.

I dont see him winning the arkle but at least he might turn up there unlike the majority of those above him so at 40s might be a frisky ew

I think from what connections have said - he probably won't be seen at Cheltenham. In their view they've never had much luck with their few runners there - they rolled the dice last season and he got too lit up.

More likely to mop up races in the north and aim for something at Aintree - so i would hold off on antepost. Likely still get a decent price on the day if he did actually make the it to the race.

[ComplyOrDie]

I noticed Idas Boy has been declared for the 2m4f Beginners Chase at Cork on Sunday, could be one that turns out for the NH Chase down the line?

Obviously lacks the class of a Gaillard Du Mesnil, based on all known hurdles form, but his form isn't poor by any stretch. Looks bred for a trip too, however, I am a little disappointed, but not surprised, to see his top price for the race is only 20/1. I was expecting 33's.

Anyone have any thoughts about this one?

[Kautostar]

Disappointing news re Hillcrest ofts. These giant horses really are difficult to keep fit monkfish/topofthegame springs to mind

[JackieMoon33]

Disappointing news re Hillcrest ofts. These giant horses really are difficult to keep fit monkfish/topofthegame springs to mind

My thoughts exactly and the reason I could never get on board with him as a festival prospect.

[charlie]

I noticed Idas Boy has been declared for the 2m4f Beginners Chase at Cork on Sunday, could be one that turns out for the NH Chase down the line?

Obviously lacks the class of a Gaillard Du Mesnil, based on all known hurdles form, but his form isn't poor by any stretch. Looks bred for a trip too, however, I am a little disappointed, but not surprised, to see his top price for the race is only 20/1. I was expecting 33's.

Anyone have any thoughts about this one?

I accidentally stumbled across him last week when watching Gerri. I think he's quite interesting. His pedigree is a huge tick for the NHC. By Dubai Destination who produced the second in last years NHC (Next Destination) and other proper trip loving horses like Elegant Escape. Clearly impressed in his PTP and was bought for 155k later that month. Two things put me off. The first (which you've picked up on) is the price. 20/1 is just way too skinny. You can actually back Banbridge at the same price and we know he jumps beautifully and that he handles cheltenham. The second is connections favouring the Irish Grand National (especially when he cost that much money). In years gone by I'd have been lured into backing him and thats why my NHC team last year ballooned to 10+ horses and it just ended up being a bloodbath. If he were 40/1+ then I'd have a go but I can leave him alone at 20/1

[charlie]

Odin responding here so as not to hijack the stayers thread. I'd be surprised if Mighty Potter didn't go up in trip. I know he's a G1 winner over 2m but I think thats more a testament to his natural ability than raw speed. He looks a big raw chaser in the making but I think horses like Appreciate It and Jonbon would devour him over 2m tbh. Could easily be very very wrong, but thats my take on it.

[Kautostar]

Odin responding here so as not to hijack the stayers thread. I'd be surprised if Mighty Potter didn't go up in trip. I know he's a G1 winner over 2m but I think thats more a testament to his natural ability than raw speed. He looks a big raw chaser in the making but I think horses like Appreciate It and Jonbon would devour him over 2m tbh. Could easily be very very wrong, but thats my take on it.

That would be my take on it too. Plus Caldwell own fil d’or who I assume they’ll want to split so it would make sense if mighty potter went up in trip and fil d’or is their Arkle horse

[ComplyOrDie]

I accidentally stumbled across him last week when watching Gerri. I think he's quite interesting. His pedigree is a huge tick for the NHC. By Dubai Destination who produced the second in last years NHC (Next Destination) and other proper trip loving horses like Elegant Escape. Clearly impressed in his PTP and was bought for 155k later that month. Two things put me off. The first (which you've picked up on) is the price. 20/1 is just way too skinny. You can actually back Banbridge at the same price and we know he jumps beautifully and that he handles cheltenham. The second is connections favouring the Irish Grand National (especially when he cost that much money). In years gone by I'd have been lured into backing him and thats why my NHC team last year ballooned to 10+ horses and it just ended up being a bloodbath. If he were 40/1+ then I'd have a go but I can leave him alone at 20/1

The price is definitely a factor for me. I've requested a price from a few other companies now in the hope they'll go bigger.

Many a forum member have recently got Banbridge onside (possibly since your write up) but he's still not doing it for me I think being by Doyen is putting me off a fair bit, plus his actual form over 3m to date. So his price in comparison is negligible for me.

Your second point about being aimed elsewhere is absolutely valid, but then we could argue that a lot of horses looking toward the NH Chase could target a big prize like a national or something along the way.

Hopefully one of these other companies can offer some 33's or bigger then I'll be a backer.

[charlie]

The price is definitely a factor for me. I've requested a price from a few other companies now in the hope they'll go bigger.

Many a forum member have recently got Banbridge onside (possibly since your write up) but he's still not doing it for me I think being by Doyen is putting me off a fair bit, plus his actual form over 3m to date. So his price in comparison is negligible for me.

Your second point about being aimed elsewhere is absolutely valid, but then we could argue that a lot of horses looking toward the NH Chase could target a big prize like a national or something along the way.

Hopefully one of these other companies can offer some 33's or bigger then I'll be a backer.

Me too, it's just a price thing. Be interested to hear what you are offered - if you could @ me that would be appreciated.

I wouldn't let breeding put you off too much. It's of course a consideration but looking through past winners for every well known NHC winning sire there is a far less successful sire. In the case of Banbridge, it is of course a question mark as to whether or not 3m6f will be up his street but I think he's worth the risk at the prices because he ticks so many other boxes that horses like Ida's boy just dont tick.

Aimed elsewhere almost always carries more risk when its MOL IMO. As you say, any horse could go elsewhere but MOL has lots of horses and will typically aim 1 at the NHC and 6+ at the Irish National, so it makes hiM more risky IMO, even more so with more fancied horses with more obvious credentials more towards the top of the market (frontal assault).

[Quevega]

Hurricane georgie is not a bad price for the mares.
for a five year old mare they’ve certainly put her in some tough assignments.
needs to stand up a bit more for sure but in a race where a novice is favourite I think she’s probably overpriced.
elimay struggled to beat 140 rated mares last year so it’s a reasonably open race I reckon.

Allegorie could well be very good, but all races will be open for her and whilst the mares is definitely the fav race. She’ll likely to not face too much until Cheltenham or run against the boys.

[Odin]

Odin responding here so as not to hijack the stayers thread. I'd be surprised if Mighty Potter didn't go up in trip. I know he's a G1 winner over 2m but I think thats more a testament to his natural ability than raw speed. He looks a big raw chaser in the making but I think horses like Appreciate It and Jonbon would devour him over 2m tbh. Could easily be very very wrong, but thats my take on it.

I wouldn't disagree with you to be fair. I didn't really take too much note of Mighty Potter last year and in all honesty have followed others on here to get TSL on board for Turners so there's a bit of pocket talk in wanting MP to go Arkle so that TSL and/or SF can go Turners. It'll be interesting to see if MP does get the Down Royal entry that was mooted as that would be a pretty good indicator that the drinmore is his early season target and then onto Turners after that

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Hurricane georgie is not a bad price for the mares.
for a five year old mare they’ve certainly put her in some tough assignments.
needs to stand up a bit more for sure but in a race where a novice is favourite I think she’s probably overpriced.
elimay struggled to beat 140 rated mares last year so it’s a reasonably open race I reckon.

Allegorie could well be very good, but all races will be open for her and whilst the mares is definitely the fav race. She’ll likely to not face too much until Cheltenham or run against the boys.

Hurricane Georgie is entered up in two races over 3m Q. Would that not worry you that she wouldn't turn up here?

Talking of mares, did anyone spot that Colreevey and Benie Des Dieux had both given birth to foals to Walk In The Park?

[Lobos]

No show again for Thyme Hill tomorrow.

[Quevega]

Hurricane Georgie is entered up in two races over 3m Q. Would that not worry you that she wouldn't turn up here?

Talking of mares, did anyone spot that Colreevey and Benie Des Dieux had both given birth to foals to Walk In The Park?

I worry about them all not turning up.

She'll definitely be better by the looks of it over longer trips, but unless she runs in a handicap at the festival I'd have thought the mares chase would be the most likely option. And I'd rather have a stayer in that race than a 2 miler. It's nearer 3 miles than 2 - I just like the races they've ran her in recently, I think it means they think she's tough.
But who knows really

[RoadToCheltenham]

BHA shows Ash Tree Meadow with an entry in the 2m Novives Chase on Friday. Assume he'll get an entry for the Saturday 3m Novice Chase tomorrow as well