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Even Lionel couldn't dance on your ceiling at the first attempt in open company, in the pinnacle race, after a year off, against an unbeaten mare.
Plastercine head's and all.
How high is your ceiling for Constitution Hill ??
FWIW - I think he might be the best we've ever seen.
Do you think if he had a setback he'd win this seasons Champion hurdle first time up ?
My gut feeling with Constitution Hill is that it looked too good to be true in the Supreme.... part of that will 100% be because I wasn't on him at massive prices early, he came from nowhere (not mentioned early season), was always too short after similar style wins to others, and even though I know that's a bias on my part, I'm naturally leaning towards him not being the best we've ever seen.... not saying he won't be, just playing probability.
So no, I don't think he would win this seasons Champion Hurdle first time up, but I also don't think at the moment he wins it with a normal prep...
By no means nailing my colours to the mast, he only needs to back up his Supreme run once and I'll know (or be able to make a better guess, obviously)... but that's where I'm at with Appreciate It, and have now lowered my expectations... and if CH does get a set back and makes his seasonal debut in the Champion Hurdle, I definitely won't fancy him and think he's the winner....
HELLO?
Last edited by Kevloaf; 11 October 2022, 04:25 PM.
It's worth remembering with Appreciate It that it's not just the setback last year.
He was due to run off the back of his Supreme win but had a small setback that ruled him out of Punchestown.
Plus (and less of an issue as he had 2 full seasons once he made the track for Mullins but..) He also had some minor issues early on in his career, hence why he waited 20 odd months following his point to points to run in a bumper and therefore ran in the Bumper as a 6 year old.
I'd love to see him back. He was easily the most exciting novice chaser last season for me, so I agree with what plenty have said.
Just too many question marks with him for me at this stage.
Both his well being and then where he could end up.
I wouldn't be shocked to see him in any one of the 3 grade one novice chases at this years festival.
It's worth remembering with Appreciate It that it's not just the setback last year.
He was due to run off the back of his Supreme win but had a small setback that ruled him out of Punchestown.
Plus (and less of an issue as he had 2 full seasons once he made the track for Mullins but..) He also had some minor issues early on in his career, hence why he waited 20 odd months following his point to points to run in a bumper and therefore ran in the Bumper as a 6 year old.
I'd love to see him back. He was easily the most exciting novice chaser last season for me, so I agree with what plenty have said.
Just too many question marks with him for me at this stage.
Both his well being and then where he could end up.
I wouldn't be shocked to see him in any one of the 3 grade one novice chases at this years festival.
Do we know what the issue was between the 622 days between his PTP and debut on the flat? I know its ages ago but wondering if the setback last year was the same thing?
Missing last season will always leave doubt, but I feel he was more a victim of circumstance and poor timing than a horse prone to injury - he's actually not that at all. Prior to last season he raced 4 times a year which is fairly standard for Willie's best. He made the Cheltenham Festival back to back which is what tough horses do and won 4 Grade 1's along the way including blitzing the Supreme. Just lots of ticks.
Does last season really put you off given the timeline of events that unfolded?
He wouldn't have started his 2021/22 chase campaign over fences until November and by mid November he was 11/4F for the Arkle (partly by default as the market looked shite then). The news about his setback was made public just before Christmas and was advertised as a 'couple of weeks' off, so IMO the setback has cost him 6-8 weeks at worst, 2-3 weeks at best. For all we know it could have been something as trivial as a stone bruise.
Either way, he must have been working in January and doing some impressive work at home to even go to the Champion Hurdle and he was smashed off the boards to boot, so whatever the setback was, it wasn't serious. He didn't look race fit which made sense given his prep and it also made sense to draw stumps after giving him such a tough assignment and wait for the larger obstacles ahead in the new season.
It's worth remembering with Appreciate It that it's not just the setback last year.
He was due to run off the back of his Supreme win but had a small setback that ruled him out of Punchestown.
Plus (and less of an issue as he had 2 full seasons once he made the track for Mullins but..) He also had some minor issues early on in his career, hence why he waited 20 odd months following his point to points to run in a bumper and therefore ran in the Bumper as a 6 year old.
I'd love to see him back. He was easily the most exciting novice chaser last season for me, so I agree with what plenty have said.
Just too many question marks with him for me at this stage.
Both his well being and then where he could end up.
I wouldn't be shocked to see him in any one of the 3 grade one novice chases at this years festival.
Him and Ferny Hollow would worry me. I'm happy to leave the pair alone.
Appreciate It reminds me of Allaho to an extent, he's a relentless galloper but he has a turn of foot.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Willie say he thought he was a stayer prior to when first gojng over hurdles and eventually ended up in the Supreme (Almost by default as he was the best 2miler about at the time).
The arguments for and against in the above comments are fantastic btw, paints a lovely balanced picture.
But I'm convincing myself he'll go for the Turners.
Does anybody know if Stateman is staying over hurdles or going over fences?
I'm also convinced that Jonbon will improve significantly again for a fence, and as racing loves a story line, Sir Gerhard will no doubt also end up in the arkle so ITV can have a story about them being bred by the same family (crazier things have happened).
Appreciate It reminds me of Allaho to an extent, he's a relentless galloper but he has a turn of foot.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Willie say he thought he was a stayer prior to when first gojng over hurdles and eventually ended up in the Supreme (Almost by default as he was the best 2miler about at the time).
The arguments for and against in the above comments are fantastic btw, paints a lovely balanced picture.
But I'm convincing myself he'll go for the Turners.
Does anybody know if Stateman is staying over hurdles or going over fences?
I'm also convinced that Jonbon will improve significantly again for a fence, and as racing loves a story line, Sir Gerhard will no doubt also end up in the arkle so ITV can have a story about them being bred by the same family (crazier things have happened).
pretty sure mullins has said state man will stay hurdling and he'll mix in some flat with him as well
Appreciate It reminds me of Allaho to an extent, he's a relentless galloper but he has a turn of foot.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Willie say he thought he was a stayer prior to when first gojng over hurdles and eventually ended up in the Supreme (Almost by default as he was the best 2miler about at the time).
The arguments for and against in the above comments are fantastic btw, paints a lovely balanced picture.
But I'm convincing myself he'll go for the Turners.
Does anybody know if Stateman is staying over hurdles or going over fences?
I'm also convinced that Jonbon will improve significantly again for a fence, and as racing loves a story line, Sir Gerhard will no doubt also end up in the arkle so ITV can have a story about them being bred by the same family (crazier things have happened).
Willie said after his win at Punchestown that he could be a champion hurdle horse and they would probably aim him that way.
Good to see Tommy’s Oscar off the mark over fences, albeit in a match race at Carlisle.
Hard to see him winning an Arkle (although he is in my book), but interesting to see how he does this season having held his own over hurdles in open company last season.
Good to see Tommy’s Oscar off the mark over fences, albeit in a match race at Carlisle.
Hard to see him winning an Arkle (although he is in my book), but interesting to see how he does this season having held his own over hurdles in open company last season.
yep I think the positives are he is likely to be aimed at the arkle, he jumped well for first time over fences and has a good hurdles rating. the negatives are he probably jumped well enough there's not a lot of obvious improvement in that area and against the real grade 1 hurdle performers he looked out of his depth imo.
I dont see him winning the arkle but at least he might turn up there unlike the majority of those above him so at 40s might be a frisky ew
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