2023 Novice Chasers

[FinalFurlong91]

It is worth noting that fame and glory doesn't produce chasers

He has a 12% Strike rate with both

But his progeny have run 2188 times over hurdles and only 292 times over fences

Suggests many over his progeny maybe dont have the size and scope for fences (the nice guy seemed a big lad to me so not sure this will be an issue)

lets hope hes a better jumper than ballyadam

[That Horse]

It is worth noting that fame and glory doesn't produce chasers

He has a 12% Strike rate with both

But his progeny have run 2188 times over hurdles and only 292 times over fences

Suggests many over his progeny maybe dont have the size and scope for fences (the nice guy seemed a big lad to me so not sure this will be an issue)

lets hope hes a better jumper than ballyadam

FWIW I'm pretty sure Willie said somewhere last season that TNG was bought to be a chaser for this season. Obviously, even Willie can't predict the future but he must have the physical attributes, just needs to be an Erling Haaland on the pitch instead of a Darwin Nunez....

[Benjy23]

It is worth noting that fame and glory doesn't produce chasers

He has a 12% Strike rate with both

But his progeny have run 2188 times over hurdles and only 292 times over fences

Suggests many over his progeny maybe dont have the size and scope for fences (the nice guy seemed a big lad to me so not sure this will be an issue)

lets hope hes a better jumper than ballyadam

Not basing this on much like but isn't the number of hurdles runs v chase runs skewed by his age? As he's not (and is never going to be now) a sire for very long I'd imagine most of his offspring haven't reached the usual sort of age they might go chasing. Assume his oldest are 8 , so obviously a few have but likely to see that state level out over the next few years I'd guess.

Not to say they'll make good chases like. Just purely thinking on the number of runs stat.

Could be massively wrong like and just be that their mostly more flat types and not suited to fences

[FinalFurlong91]

Not basing this on much like but isn't the number of hurdles runs v chase runs skewed by his age? As he's not (and is never going to be now) a sire for very long I'd imagine most of his offspring haven't reached the usual sort of age they might go chasing. Assume his oldest are 8 , so obviously a few have but likely to see that state level out over the next few years I'd guess.

Not to say they'll make good chases like. Just purely thinking on the number of runs stat.

Could be massively wrong like and just be that their mostly more flat types and not suited to fences

Maybe

But ballyadam was dreadful over fences
Foxy jacks can be a dodgy jumper
commander of fleets chasing career ended after loads of mistakes and 1 run
glory and fortune made loads of mistakes in his 2 chases and went back hurdling
home by the Lee won a few chases but was sent back hurdling

I'm hoping that none of this matters as the nice guy looked a big scopey sort and a bit of a freak ability wise

But I think il hold off adding him to anymore multis until iv seen him jump and have a little more on minella cocooner who wad comfortably second best staying novice hurdler

he's by flemensfirth so should relish a fence on pedigree

He was also a bit nuts so should be nice and brave and attack his fences

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Soaring Glory is set to go novice chasing this year according to Jonjo snr.

[ComplyOrDie]

It is worth noting that fame and glory doesn't produce chasers

He has a 12% Strike rate with both

But his progeny have run 2188 times over hurdles and only 292 times over fences

Suggests many over his progeny maybe dont have the size and scope for fences (the nice guy seemed a big lad to me so not sure this will be an issue)

lets hope hes a better jumper than ballyadam

This is a factor for me.

Some will have it down as irrelevant, but its of relevance to me.

I'd sooner side with Minella Cocooner than The Nice Guy, even more so at the prices.

[ComplyOrDie]

I do and we know Elliott has always liked him. He's a big chasing type so you'd think he'd improve for a fence. I think he'll fall short of top class though, just as he has over hurdles. It'll be interesting to see how he's campaigned. Given a hurdles mark in the low 140's it may be that he's handicapped before he show's his real hand.

Ginto would likely have been the BANC horse, though it's conceivable that Hollow Games steps in now I guess.

I think he'll be campaigned as a handicapper, but likely a graded performer in the making, given the step up to fences likely to bring about improvement.

I'm not convinced he's a 3miler though, so I'd be looking at something like the plate, personally.

[Spectre]

Mighty Potter be Gordons Arkle horse you think Spectre? Agree Three Stripe Life will be a Turners horse and he will want to keep them apart.

You'd think so, but I don't think Mighty Potter would have a problem getting further. His breeding suggests two an half would end up being his optimum. He's also in different ownership than Three Stripe Life so it's feasible they both end up at the mid-trip. TSL would probably get three miles too, so it's impossible to discount the possibility of him going to the Brown Advisory. On balance though you'd think Mighty Potter two miles and The Strip Life two and half miles. Also Elliott is far more straightforward and easier to predict than Mullins, so I'm happy to play them that way.

[Kautostar]

You'd think so, but I don't think Mighty Potter would have a problem getting further. His breeding suggests two an half would end up being his optimum. He's also in different ownership than Three Stripe Life so it's feasible they both end up at the mid-trip. TSL would probably get three miles too, so it's impossible to discount the possibility of him going to the Brown Advisory. On balance though you'd think Mighty Potter two miles and The Strip Life two and half miles. Also Elliott is far more straightforward and easier to predict than Mullins, so I'm happy to play them that way.

Elliott could have others too that could go novice chasing this season.
Fil dor, teahupoo and saint felicien could all be Arkle/turners candidates.

[Spectre]

Yes agreed. Quilixios too. He and Teahupoo the ones that interests me most of those not already discussed.

Saint Felicien may end up down the handicap route, and Fil Dor will probably need another season.

[Kautostar]

Yeah quilixios always looked like a chaser. I would imagine he and sir gerhard may be kept apart so although I think he could be better over further there’s a good chance he’ll be the hdb Arkle horse.

[FinalFurlong91]

Quilixios was so poor last year I won't be contemplating backing him for anything until iv seen him run and run well

Maxios also hasn't produced many good jumpers, quilixios is the only 150+ jumps horse hes sired

[Quevega]

Yes agreed. Quilixios too. He and Teahupoo the ones that interests me most of those not already discussed.

Saint Felicien may end up down the handicap route, and Fil Dor will probably need another season.

I asked B365 to price Teahupoo for the arkle as he looks like one that could mop up some races on softer ground before Spring and be a shortener.
Probably fall short when it matters (not keen on his breeding) but that would depend on who lasts the season and gets to the festivals.
Anyway, they refused.

Anything 20-1 + would be a fair price.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Yes agreed. Quilixios too. He and Teahupoo the ones that interests me most of those not already discussed.

Saint Felicien may end up down the handicap route, and Fil Dor will probably need another season.

Quilixios is no longer with Elliott. He’s with HDB, following Cheveley pulling their horses from Elliott.

[Nwfb89]

Yeah quilixios always looked like a chaser. I would imagine he and sir gerhard may be kept apart so although I think he could be better over further there’s a good chance he’ll be the hdb Arkle horse.

Quilixios 50/1 for the arkle on paddy power, pretty decent price if you think the arkle is where he could end up if he gets back to form