2023 Novice Chasers

[ComplyOrDie]

All good points but I don’t think Sir G was the stereotypical Ballymore winner… he didn’t run in that race because Willie saw him as a stayer, he ran in the race primarily to avoid CH. Willie will also know that he’ll need a good ‘un to beat Jonbon, whereas arguably the Turners is there more for the taking.

I agree about why he ran in the Ballymore, 100% avoiding Constitution Hill with his best novice hurdler, however, he is from a p2p background and stayed on up that hill really well in the Ballymore in fairly testing ground. I think he's as much about speed as he is stamina, and I do think the Turners is by far the most likely target, however I couldn't rule out the BANC either.

[Lobos]

Ramillies declared at Thurles over 3m Sunday. Qualification for NHC looms.

[charlie]

Ramillies declared at Thurles over 3m Sunday. Qualification for NHC looms.

Lovely. Topped up at 50/1 and gone EW.

[charlie]

Sir Gerhard is a difficult one to weigh up, IMO .

I enjoyed that COD (cut all text to make response shorter).

I wasn't overly impressed with him last season. I know he won when it counted, but his jumping was often sloppy and it wasn't the deepest Ballymore.

Connections seemingly undecided for so long about where he goes is another red flag IMO.

For me, Sir Gerhard doesn't take his obstacles at speed well enough to go down the Arkle route. He could of course improve for a fence, but I'd need to see it first.

[DenmanSacre]

Il Est Francais no longer coming over for a novice chase campaign

[SeanRock]

To add to what COD detailed about Sir Gerhard. He was a very well developed 6 year old when winning the Champion Bumper. Kilcruit was 6 too but looked a shell of a horse in comparison.

I’d be surprised if one or two younger slower developing types haven’t either bridged the gap or improved past him!

Rates of physical development is very important to asses with novices imo.

[Lobos]

Mullins has a mountain of quality Novice Chasers to shuffle around this year, more than any other year I can remember. He's not however been adverse to having multiple runners in both the Turner's and the BANC over the years so that is encouraging.

[ComplyOrDie]

He's not however been adverse to having multiple runners in both the Turner's and the BANC over the years so that is encouraging.

I think this has to be the most likely scenario, for sure.

Expect two or three in each race, I reckon.

[Liammet]

I think this has to be the most likely scenario, for sure.

Expect two or three in each race, I reckon.

Might make it easier for Patrick to convince them to run GDM in the NHC

[Lobos]

I think this has to be the most likely scenario, for sure.

Expect two or three in each race, I reckon.

Three or Four I'd say. He usually sticks to one in the NHC but I can see him having a couple in that too. The Arkle again is normally 1 but this year he had 3 in it so hope there too.

[SeanRock]

Delving into my age related development black hole a little deeper I notice Jonbon is more than a year older than El Fabiolo & for me Appreciate It is getting a bit long in the tooth to be relishing/improving for the minimum distance, Flame Bearer too…

To compare Mighty Potter is still a 5 year old & you can visually see him improving/maturing with every run.

[Quevega]

Delving into my age related development black hole a little deeper I notice Jonbon is more than a year older than El Fabiolo & for me Appreciate It is getting a bit long in the tooth to be relishing/improving for the minimum distance, Flame Bearer too…

To compare Mighty Potter is still a 5 year old & you can visually see him improving/maturing with every run.

Interesting thing with this theory which i tend to agree with.
The average age of the Champion Chase winner in the last 20 years is 8.1.
The Gold cup is 7.9.

This probably shows that some horses also cry enough as they get older when they are severely tested over the Gold cup trip. Or similar trips elsewhere.
Whereas the less wise ones will bust a gut in ignorance.

On the arkle itself.
Experience has been quite important in most years, aside from the superstar renewals.

[YoungHustler]

To compare Mighty Potter is still a 5 year old & you can visually see him improving/maturing with every run.

This was my thought in thinking Mighty Potter would be better than Sir Gerhard(if he goes Turners) this season(through a TSL form line). I'm really glad that MP showed how good I thought he could be in the Drinmore as he was underwhelming on debut and I can only see him improving throughout the season with a view to peaking ain the Turners.

[Zachx02]

Appreciate it declared for 2 mile novice at punchestown on monday

[Lobos]

Appreciate it declared for 2 mile novice at punchestown on monday

He's one of those that will split the Forum. I'm against........but am afraid I might be wrong.