2023 Novice Chasers

[Odin]

Minella Cocooner was my first thought for that race and is eligible to run for the reason you mentioned. In the last couple of days I've wondered whether MC and Classic Getaway might be split over the two Grade 1s (Leopardstown 29th 3m novice chase and Limerick 26th 2m4f novice chase) to make space for SG in that aforementioned Beginners Chase on 28th Dec.

I'd expect to MC to run at Leopardstown regardless due to his preference for better ground which is more likely there than Limerick.

The other one we (or just I) possibly missed here was James Du Berlais, who I'd argue may be more likely than both MC/SG to go for the beginners chase if all is well?

[On The Fringe]

The other one we (or just I) possibly missed here was James Du Berlais, who I'd argue may be more likely than both MC/SG to go for the beginners chase if all is well?

I had sort of forgotten JDB. I've always put him in the 2.5m-3m bracket, whereas the others are all 2m or 2m-2.5m horses (in my head at least), but you are correct - he's very much a contender to take in that 2m5f beginners chase on 28th Dec at Leopardstown

[Irish Rugby]

Chances the meeting actually goes ahead? Very much looking forward to seeing him.

I'd say very doubtful for Saturday, in fact I'd be very surprised. Even our thaw on Sunday could be too late to save Navan. That hopefully will work in Punchestown's favour for it's re-scheduled Monday card.

[FinalFurlong91]

I'd say very doubtful for Saturday, in fact I'd be very surprised. Even our thaw on Sunday could be too late to save Navan. That hopefully will work in Punchestown's favour for it's re-scheduled Monday card.

Shame

This jumps season has been a complete flop so far

[charlie]

Appreciate It cut into 6's by PP/BF for the Arkle. I really hope thats a good sign.

[ComplyOrDie]

Appreciate It cut into 6's by PP/BF for the Arkle. I really hope thats a good sign.

Strange they pushed out El Fab at the same time despite both having 2m chase entries, in fact El Fab is the only one declared so far, in a race Willie has used before.

[charlie]

Strange they pushed out El Fab at the same time despite both having 2m chase entries, in fact El Fab is the only one declared so far, in a race Willie has used before.

Maybe El Fab can't catch a whiff of AI's ass on the gallops and word has spread

Could be a simple price correction. It also doesn't take much to move markets nowadays. Someone could stick a grand on at 7/1 and that would probably do it, so probably nothing but I live in hope.

[FinalFurlong91]

El fab plenty shorter on the exchange than appreciate it

el fab 7.6, AI 9.4

[On The Fringe]

Interesting comments from Ruby on Road to Cheltenham last night. When questioned by Lydia which of the Mullins novice chasers would be the biggest threat to Jonbon, without hesitation he said Sir Gerhard, referring to him as the most talented. Said he was schooling well too.

https://youtu.be/5Ypmo8JJ2qw around the 40:30 mark

Read into that what you may regarding Festival target (I still think he'll go Turners), but given the talent in the novice chasing ranks at Mullins yard, the decisiveness of that answer surprised me.

[Birds Nest]

Interesting comments from Ruby on Road to Cheltenham last night. When questioned by Lydia which of the Mullins novice chasers would be the biggest threat to Jonbon, without hesitation he said Sir Gerhard, referring to him as the most talented. Said he was schooling well too.

https://youtu.be/5Ypmo8JJ2qw around the 40:30 mark

Read into that what you may regarding Festival target (I still think he'll go Turners), but given the talent in the novice chasing ranks at Mullins yard, the decisiveness of that answer surprised me.

I can feel another Lydia/ruby campaign coming on to get a willies novice chasers target switched again, GDC all over again. Tongue in cheek of course.

[Quevega]

It's strange really - when you think about it.
Sir Gerhard was being considered for a Champion hurdle campaign or novice chasing !

So why would he be a certainty to run in the Marsh ?

Because of the doubt about him chasing, no real indication of trip has been mentioned from connections, but surely the Champion hurdle thing has some sway.
I'd say he's as much a player for the arkle as any of Willie's other runners.
It'll depend on how they perform and jump etc.

I've only backed him for the arkle but only because the price on the exchange has been in the mid 20's once or twice.
Not that I'm sure where he'll end up.

[Morley Street]

It's strange really - when you think about it.
Sir Gerhard was being considered for a Champion hurdle campaign or novice chasing !

So why would he be a certainty to run in the Marsh ?

Because of the doubt about him chasing, no real indication of trip has been mentioned from connections, but surely the Champion hurdle thing has some sway.
I'd say he's as much a player for the arkle as any of Willie's other runners.
It'll depend on how they perform and jump etc.

I've only backed him for the arkle but only because the price on the exchange has been in the mid 20's once or twice.
Not that I'm sure where he'll end up.

Exactly this… the majority on here seem to have him booked for the Turners but nothing has been said by connections about his potential trip over fences. He was considered Willie’s best novice hurdler last year and if he turns out to be his best novice chaser, personally I have no doubt he’ll be Arkle bound.

[ComplyOrDie]

Sir Gerhard is a difficult one to weigh up, IMO.

I think he could end up in any one of the three novice chases however, from past winners of the Ballymore, more so in recent seasons, I'd say the Arkle is the least likely of the three.

Willie himself has won the Ballymore 4 times prior to Sir Gerhard winning and they ended up in the following races the next time they ended up at the festival:

Yorkhill - JLT
Faugheen - Champion Hurdle
Mikael D'haguenet - RSA
Fiveforthree - No run the following season, ended up in the Stayers two season after though

The last horse to go back to the Arkle and win it from the Ballymore, was a rare winner in the race for Nicky Henderson, in Simonsig. We know Nicky loves an Arkle runner.

In even more recent seasons the Ballymore has leant itself to horses going for the JLT/Marsh/Turners:

Bob Olinger, somewhat fortuitously got his head in front last season in the race, Envoi Allen went off a red hot favourite but for falling in the race, Samcro missed a festival then returned to win the race, City Island was only geared up for the Ballymore but was bang average really, Willoughby Court was vying for favouritism in the race before he died, and Yorkhill, as above, won the race.

I can easily see why the Turners would be the most obvious race punters are looking at for him. I don't think it's really that hard to grasp why this is the case. Of course, a whole heap of recency bias to this, but fair reasoning, in my opinion.


Of Sir Gerhards Ballymore performance, the way he stayed in that ground up that Cheltenham hill I don't think it would be a bother on him if he stepped up to 3m either though.


All of the above coupled with the fact Willie has touted Dysart Dynamo to stay at the minimum trip, El Fabiolo as a potential Arkle type, and mentioning Appreciate Its speed, suggesting the minimum trip with a view to going out in trip if needed.

[Quevega]

His other options looking more like 2 milers is the biggest sway I reckon.
All the other horses were individuals and would also have been favourites in the arkle.

and yeah - classy enough for all three assuming jumping is adequate

[Morley Street]

Sir Gerhard is a difficult one to weigh up, IMO.

I think he could end up in any one of the three novice chases however, from past winners of the Ballymore, more so in recent seasons, I'd say the Arkle is the least likely of the three.

Willie himself has won the Ballymore 4 times prior to Sir Gerhard winning and they ended up in the following races the next time they ended up at the festival:

Yorkhill - JLT
Faugheen - Champion Hurdle
Mikael D'haguenet - RSA
Fiveforthree - No run the following season, ended up in the Stayers two season after though

The last horse to go back to the Arkle and win it from the Ballymore, was a rare winner in the race for Nicky Henderson, in Simonsig. We know Nicky loves an Arkle runner.

In even more recent seasons the Ballymore has leant itself to horses going for the JLT/Marsh/Turners:

Bob Olinger, somewhat fortuitously got his head in front last season in the race, Envoi Allen went off a red hot favourite but for falling in the race, Samcro missed a festival then returned to win the race, City Island was only geared up for the Ballymore but was bang average really, Willoughby Court was vying for favouritism in the race before he died, and Yorkhill, as above, won the race.

I can easily see why the Turners would be the most obvious race punters are looking at for him. I don't think it's really that hard to grasp why this is the case. Of course, a whole heap of recency bias to this, but fair reasoning, in my opinion.


Of Sir Gerhards Ballymore performance, the way he stayed in that ground up that Cheltenham hill I don't think it would be a bother on him if he stepped up to 3m either though.


All of the above coupled with the fact Willie has touted Dysart Dynamo to stay at the minimum trip, El Fabiolo as a potential Arkle type, and mentioning Appreciate Its speed, suggesting the minimum trip with a view to going out in trip if needed.

All good points but I don’t think Sir G was the stereotypical Ballymore winner… he didn’t run in that race because Willie saw him as a stayer, he ran in the race primarily to avoid CH. Willie will also know that he’ll need a good ‘un to beat Jonbon, whereas arguably the Turners is there more for the taking.