2023 Novice Chasers

[AaronLad]

Winging The Last ‘he'd have no issue going down the Arkle route, though he could be one for the Turners. It doesn't really matter to me whether he starts off at two miles or two and a half miles, we'll just wait for him and the right race to come along.’ - RP Stable Tour

This has been summarised from the open day at closuttton I believe, the irishracing,com video on you tube IMO gives a better summary as you can actually see and hear exactly what he says and how he says it. You've probably seen it and we just have a different view but if you haven't i'd encourage you to watch it.

[Winging The Last]

Winging The Last ‘he'd have no issue going down the Arkle route, though he could be one for the Turners. It doesn't really matter to me whether he starts off at two miles or two and a half miles, we'll just wait for him and the right race to come along.’ - RP Stable Tour

This has been summarised from the open day at closuttton I believe, the irishracing,com video on you tube IMO gives a better summary as you can actually see and hear exactly what he says and how he says it. You've probably seen it and we just have a different view but if you haven't i'd encourage you to watch it.

Literally what I just put!!

So supports my comment that he could go any of the three races as he’s been name checked for 2 of them and then Willie has also said he can go 3 miles

[AaronLad]

Literally what I just put!!

So supports my comment that he could go any of the three races as he’s been name checked for 2 of them and then Willie has also said he can go 3 miles

Nah what i'm saying is the racing post summary is imo not as conclusive as the video on you tube. He clearly thinks Appreciate it is an arkle horse and there is absolutely nothing to suggest he will race over 3m, only that willie mullins doesn't think it'd be a problem for him. He also says he's very sharp at the 2m trip

[riccirich]

Nah what i'm saying is the racing post summary is imo not as conclusive as the video on you tube. He clearly thinks Appreciate it is an arkle horse and there is absolutely nothing to suggest he will race over 3m, only that willie mullins doesn't think it'd be a problem for him. He also says he's very sharp at the 2m trip

If you were to go by what Mullins said in those tours though he is going to be splitting about 9/10 horses between the Arkle and turners and have no main dart in the BANC, which is likely not going to be the case. Appreciate it, minella cocooner and James du berlais would look like three who’d have no bother at 3m, so I’d expect at least one of these or maybe more to step up to 3m at some point.

[Craigy14]

We can all carry on and discuss/debate but we still don't have a clue

Have I missed something? What's happened in the last two weeks re SG?

I agree but surely if had schooled so well over fences there wouldn’t be hurdle entries? It wouldn’t fill you with confidence for march as Archie says for a novice chase until he’s actually entered in one.

At the minute he’s had 2 entries, the Morgiana and now the hattons grace.

[FredFlintstone]

I agree but surely if had schooled so well over fences there wouldn’t be hurdle entries? It wouldn’t fill you with confidence for march as Archie says for a novice chase until he’s actually entered in one.

At the minute he’s had 2 entries, the Morgiana and now the hattons grace.

The entries for 2m novice chase at Leopardstown on Stephen's day can be expected later this week

[Lobos]

I agree but surely if had schooled so well over fences there wouldn’t be hurdle entries? It wouldn’t fill you with confidence for march as Archie says for a novice chase until he’s actually entered in one.

At the minute he’s had 2 entries, the Morgiana and now the hattons grace.

Both early entry races. It's a Willie thing.

[Lobos]

The entries for 2m novice chase at Leopardstown on Stephen's day can be expected later this week

Yes. He and several others will be entered up for sure.

[charlie]

Nice to see a bit of blue with PP and Betfair for Appreciate It in the Arkle (into 7's). Normally a good sign when that happens on a random Monday (I can't see any entries or maybe someone put him up??). Easy to go round in circles trying to interpret Mullins stable comments with a view to future decisions, but there is a danger of over thinking what he says and ignoring what he's actually done. Appreciate It has raced 9 times for Willie. 8 of those were over 2m and 3 of those came at the festival. He was awesome in the Supreme and showed a great cruising speed over the minimum trip. Willie said Arkle horse after the Supreme. He the went Champion Hurdle with no prep last year - proper deep end shit. He's then said Arkle in every stable tour with every outlet (in fairness also mentioned Turners). He almost certainly falls in the 2m to 2m5f bracket, and I think the market has it right at 7, 12 and 25. Its interesting with Kilkruit in the mix for the same owner as his future looks set over 2m5f or 3m, so it could be a case of leave Appreciate It to what he knows and is good at and stick to 2m, then explore further with Kilkruit. Thats how I hope it pans out anyway.

[Appreciate It]

As you might be able to guess from my name on here, I love Appreciate It. However, despite his exploits earlier in his career, I can't help but think he's an awful price for the Arkle at 7s. He's had one run in two years because of injury. That one run, whilst understandable, was more than a stone shy of his best. And, he's yet to have an entry over fences.

It is also worth bearing in mind that his Novice Hurdle season was so threadbare when it came to 2m Novices. From an RPR perspective, Jonbon (155), El Fabiolo (155) and Dysart Dynamo (153) are all ahead of or on a par with the best horse that Appreciate It beat (Blue Lord (153)) as a novice hurdler. All three of those I've mentioned above are at least 2 years younger than Appreciate It and certainly have more recent evidence of an ability to post an RPR in excess of 153.

To be clear, I would love Appreciate It to come out and dominate the 2m chasing division. But id much sooner wait and be blown away by his debut to take 5/2, than i would take 7s now with so much uncertainty

[SeanRock]

Nice to see a bit of blue with PP and Betfair for Appreciate It in the Arkle (into 7's). Normally a good sign when that happens on a random Monday (I can't see any entries or maybe someone put him up??). Easy to go round in circles trying to interpret Mullins stable comments with a view to future decisions, but there is a danger of over thinking what he says and ignoring what he's actually done. Appreciate It has raced 9 times for Willie. 8 of those were over 2m and 3 of those came at the festival. He was awesome in the Supreme and showed a great cruising speed over the minimum trip. Willie said Arkle horse after the Supreme. He the went Champion Hurdle with no prep last year - proper deep end shit. He's then said Arkle in every stable tour with every outlet (in fairness also mentioned Turners). He almost certainly falls in the 2m to 2m5f bracket, and I think the market has it right at 7, 12 and 25. Its interesting with Kilkruit in the mix for the same owner as his future looks set over 2m5f or 3m, so it could be a case of leave Appreciate It to what he knows and is good at and stick to 2m, then explore further with Kilkruit. Thats how I hope it pans out anyway.

Those Sportinglife tour quotes re: his novice chasers have to be taken with a pinch of salt. Sportinglife are sponsoring the race & I feel as though Willie just wanted to namecheck them as much as possible. Flame Bearer has only had 2m4f entries since then for example.

Edit: the Arkle I should have specified!

[darlojim]

RP interview with Patrick Mullins & Paul Townend -

"Ruby isn't here. It's a cold Friday morning in November and we're schooling the novice chaser. Ruby isn't here but Paul Townend is.

Thirty-two years old, five-time champion jockey, more than 1,100 winners, 23 at the Cheltenham Festival. Two Gold Cups. One of only six jockeys to have ridden a century of winners in an Irish Jumps season: Ruby, Davy Russell, Paul Carberry, Barry Geraghty, Charlie Swan (with a record of 150) and Townend. Rare air.

Townend hops down after blitzing up over four fences on Sir Gerhard and jumps up on Whatdeawant and does the same again. Danny Mullins, Jack Foley and Brian Hayes follow him down the strip. He canters back, nods to Willie and returns to the ground. Willie heads off walking the gallop, followed enthusiastically" by Hattie, a large Rottweiler, and Munch, a small Pikachu-type dog. The jockeys return to the yard and wait for the next lot."


I mean at least SG and fences got a mention together

Who knows when in November this was, and whether he's had any issues since, god only knows.

[charlie]

As you might be able to guess from my name on here, I love Appreciate It. However, despite his exploits earlier in his career, I can't help but think he's an awful price for the Arkle at 7s. He's had one run in two years because of injury. That one run, whilst understandable, was more than a stone shy of his best. And, he's yet to have an entry over fences.

It is also worth bearing in mind that his Novice Hurdle season was so threadbare when it came to 2m Novices. From an RPR perspective, Jonbon (155), El Fabiolo (155) and Dysart Dynamo (153) are all ahead of or on a par with the best horse that Appreciate It beat (Blue Lord (153)) as a novice hurdler. All three of those I've mentioned above are at least 2 years younger than Appreciate It and certainly have more recent evidence of an ability to post an RPR in excess of 153.

To be clear, I would love Appreciate It to come out and dominate the 2m chasing division. But id much sooner wait and be blown away by his debut to take 5/2, than i would take 7s now with so much uncertainty

Such a great name yet such a disappointing post

Genuinely a head scratcher how a horse thats been to 3 consecutive festivals obtains an 'injury prone' tag. It's just nonsense.

He obtained a minor injury in early December which set him back a few weeks. He wouldn't have started until Nov/Dec anyway. They decided to preserve his novice chase status and go Champion Hurdle. Running in the race and going off 100/30 with no prep is all the proof you need that it was a minor injury and nothing more.

Your RPR analysis is all over the place. You ignore his Supreme run of 163. None of the horses you mention would have laid a glove on him then. He's run to an RPR in the Champion Hurdle of 156 but you think thats a stone shy of his best? 9L behind Honeysuckle with no prep and post injury is no mean feat IMO.

The waiting bit makes sense though, we all have our own strategies and a point at 7/1 vs 2 points at 5/2 when you've got more info seems a less risky strategy. I would caveat that by saying the bookies are risk averse scumbags who may go even shorter than that if he blows away his opposition on debut.

[Liammet]

Nice to see a bit of blue with PP and Betfair for Appreciate It in the Arkle (into 7's). Normally a good sign when that happens on a random Monday (I can't see any entries or maybe someone put him up??). Easy to go round in circles trying to interpret Mullins stable comments with a view to future decisions, but there is a danger of over thinking what he says and ignoring what he's actually done. Appreciate It has raced 9 times for Willie. 8 of those were over 2m and 3 of those came at the festival. He was awesome in the Supreme and showed a great cruising speed over the minimum trip. Willie said Arkle horse after the Supreme. He the went Champion Hurdle with no prep last year - proper deep end shit. He's then said Arkle in every stable tour with every outlet (in fairness also mentioned Turners). He almost certainly falls in the 2m to 2m5f bracket, and I think the market has it right at 7, 12 and 25. Its interesting with Kilkruit in the mix for the same owner as his future looks set over 2m5f or 3m, so it could be a case of leave Appreciate It to what he knows and is good at and stick to 2m, then explore further with Kilkruit. Thats how I hope it pans out anyway.

I am a little suspicious when I see so called money coming for a Mullins horse on pp/betfair
Understandable if there’s an entry otherwise I think it can be a trap
Galopin for the king George is an example,so called gamble that punters will latch onto
I wonder how many punters would back Appreciate it on the news that he was getting backed
probably sitting here with my tin hat on but until I see an entry over 2 miles I won’t be getting involved

[charlie]

I am a little suspicious when I see so called money coming for a Mullins horse on pp/betfair
Understandable if there’s an entry otherwise I think it can be a trap
Galopin for the king George is an example,so called gamble that punters will latch onto
I wonder how many punters would back Appreciate it on the news that he was getting backed
probably sitting here with my tin hat on but until I see an entry over 2 miles I won’t be getting involved

Some fair points but I think re GDC its apples and oranges. GDC was 8/1 into 9/4 very quickly off the back of an entry. Nibbles with no word or no entries is more often than not in the know money (or some mug like Tom Segal tipping it), esp when its pp/betfair. It's 7 from 8 with one firm effectively so its nothing to write home about. Worth also noting that at this time of year one big bet could move the price so it may very well not mean much at all.