2023 Novice Chasers

[opatcho]

A little confused with GDM being a tad shorter than JDB

JDB is one of my better best this weekend, and he’s 3rd in the better

[DenmanSacre]

A little confused with GDM being a tad shorter than JDB

JDB is one of my better best this weekend, and he’s 3rd in the better

Purely because Townend is on board. As you say, JDB is now third favourite and a decent price.

[DenmanSacre]

City Chief.......so he is !! Proper spanner in the works Ista. He's running tomorrow as well. Trained by Henderson though who's record in the NHC is worse than mine.........he has come out before and said he bloody hates the race. That would put me off him a bit. Good spot though.

Kim Muir possibly like Mister Coffey last year? His rating can't be too high.

[DenmanSacre]

Yeah I'm not sure what to make of Ramilies, didn't he have 5 bumpers ?
Good chasers should be sent over fences sooner and there's nothing in his hurdle career that screams G2 chase winner to me, it just strikes me as a slightly odd career path.
The Donnellys have City Chief for the NH Chase too, I wouldn't be shocked if that one turned out to be better than Ramilies, whether they'd run all three I have no idea...

His hurdle and bumper career was poor but Willie seems to like him.

I think he's a good jumper and that's half the battle over 3m6. He will also stay all day and as long as it doesn't turn into a sprint, he should be thereabouts in what's looking an average year for the race if GDM doesn't go.

[Istabraq]

His hurdle and bumper career was poor but Willie seems to like him.

I think he's a good jumper and that's half the battle over 3m6. He will also stay all day and as long as it doesn't turn into a sprint, he should be thereabouts in what's looking an average year for the race if GDM doesn't go.

Yep, can't disagree with that.

Interesting you mention Mister Coffee for the Kim Muir, I was thinking earlier that could be where Ramilies ends up...

[DenmanSacre]

Yep, can't disagree with that.

Interesting you mention Mister Coffee for the Kim Muir, I was thinking earlier that could be where Ramilies ends up...

Ramilles and City Chief could be interchangeable, although Ramilles needs a third run.

[Can't Catch Me]

The Mullins confidence behind Appreciate It starting to look ominous.

Paddy have cut him to 9/4 for the Arkle already! 7/4 for tomorrows race might look very good come tomorrow afternoon.... topped up on the 15/2 about him winning both with Hills.

Edit - mind you they have shortened DD and EF as well for the Arkle so NRNB presumably coming imminently.

[darlojim]

The Mullins confidence behind Appreciate It starting to look ominous.

Paddy have cut him to 9/4 for the Arkle already! 7/4 for tomorrows race might look very good come tomorrow afternoon.... topped up on the 15/2 about him winning both with Hills.

Edit - mind you they have shortened DD and EF as well for the Arkle so not taking any chances!

Confidence behind him yeah, but that arkle price cut will be due to NRNB coming in also mate.

[charlie]

His hurdle and bumper career was poor but Willie seems to like him.

I think he's a good jumper and that's half the battle over 3m6. He will also stay all day and as long as it doesn't turn into a sprint, he should be thereabouts in what's looking an average year for the race if GDM doesn't go.

They didn't spend 215k on a Shantou and expect him to thrive in bumpers or over hurdles, he was bought as a future chaser. The disrespect he had for hurdles vs how well he jumps fences is quite stark. I think you're assessment re the NHC is fair.

[Istabraq]

They didn't spend 215k on a Shantou and expect him to thrive in bumpers or over hurdles, he was bought as a future chaser.

Agreed, but why send him to five bumpers over two seasons ?

[Lobos]

A little confused with GDM being a tad shorter than JDB

JDB is one of my better best this weekend, and he’s 3rd in the better

He should be though surely on what he's achieved? No way should JDB be a shorter price .

[Hardy Eustace]

The confidence in AI really is daunting - I don't think I can recall Willie and all the team being so bullish about a horse like this before.

Still, I prefer to look with my eyes than listen with my ears!

Come on anyone but AI

[Lobos]

The confidence in AI really is daunting - I don't think I can recall Willie and all the team being so bullish about a horse like this before.

Still, I prefer to look with my eyes than listen with my ears!

Come on anyone but AI

Just as Bullish re Facile Vega this season. Only just done the double. Bit late to the party !

[opatcho]

He should be though surely on what he's achieved? No way should JDB be a shorter price .

More money….more problems

[DenmanSacre]

He should be though surely on what he's achieved? No way should JDB be a shorter price .

Hard race for the bookies to price up probably.

Mighty Potter beat GDM last time and is the favourite at Cheltenham so needs to be fairly short.

GDM has Townend on board (could have several winners on Saturday and will be popular with punters on the day) and won a grade 1 last time. They probably don't want to put him up as 3rd favourite just yet. If they get sustained money for Mighty Potter and James du Berlais, they have the option of pushing GDM out and getting the money before the race from punters just looking for Townend and Mullins on the racecard and balance their book.

Adamantly Chosen finished second in a grade 1 last time and is 33/1. He should be shorter than Kilcruit really.

My view on this race is that GDM likely won't beat Mighty Potter from how their first meeting went (although GDM could come on from it being his first race of the season and the race is over an extra 1.5f). I've never taken to Mighty Potter. He won a shit grade 1 at Christmas as a novice hurdler, was put in his place at Cheltenham and beat Flame Bearer at Punchestown for another grade 1.

He won at Christmas but the race fell apart. We know from last year GDM isn't a top animal at this mid distance and he got close enough last time to Mighty Potter. He's also not a great jumper.

JDB ran to a high rating on debut and his performance compared favourably to the mares over the same course and distance on that day. He was also the highest rated hurdler out of the 3 of them.

3/1 is a fair price for me compared with the other two based on JDB having a higher upside to me.