2023 Novice Chasers

[Exar Essay]

Worth noting that Aione and Mr Adjudicator have a 3m entry at Navan Saturday.

[DenmanSacre]

Graeme North and Simon Rowlands articles highlighting Flame Bearers performance last time as very good time wise based on sectional adjustments. Slow finish showed he tired and may be the reason for the bad jump at the last.

[charlie]

Backers of GDM for the NHC have had terrible luck with so many of Willies potential 3 milers being ruled out. I was 90/10 that GDM would end up in the NHC 3 weeks ago, but it now looks more likely he'll take in the BANC. Hopefully this post will provide GDM NHC backers with some hope.

Willies numbers for the Arkle and BANC couldn't be more different. His list of potential runners in the former grows weekly, whilst his list of BANC hopefuls seems to go in the opposite direction. Before establishing what goes where, I think three baseline assumptions most of us can agree on are:

• SR and DD are Arkle bound or bust
• Willie will not run EF and JDB in the same race
• 2m and 2m5f are more interchangeable trips than 2m5f and 3m

Re the Arkle, SR is a G1 winner over 2m and only entered in the Arkle. DD looks all over a 2 miler. You then have EF who ran to a debut RPR of 159 over 2m (Blue Lord was 148 the previous year) and he was unlucky not to beat the current market favourite over hurdles. You then have AI who keeps being placed over 2m, keeps winning over 2m and has tons of festival experience. Flame Bearer entered the picture recently too.

The DRF is going to be fascinating and pieces are going to slot into place very quickly. The Arkle market is effectively a bottle neck with the 'spill over' ending up in the Turners. I think Willie has to run DD v AI v EF to learn which is best, and it could very well be a win win win scenario. I take that view thAT AI and EF can come out the 2m5f G1 at the DRF, and so can 7 others who wouldn't be good enough (Adamantly Chosen, Authorised Art, Flame Bearer, Glengouly, Ha D'or, I Am Maximus and Kilcruit).

That leaves JDB, SG and GDM in the 2m5f G1 at the DRF. These horses hold the key.

GDM
No entry = NHC
Beaten = NHC
Win or close = BANC

JDB
Win free and keen = Turners
Win settled and off pace = BANC
Beaten = BANC

I cannot wait for the DRF.

[FinalFurlong91]

The Irish arkle market is still suggesting to me appreciate it won't be running

Something il be monitoring regularly as he won't stay 5/1 if he's running

[Odin]

Jon Snow moved to George Baker and looks to be aimed at NH Chase if they can get a qualifying run in, or handicap hurdle if not. The "I'll improve him a stone" is definitely tongue in cheek!

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/ill-improve-him-a-stone-and-a-half-baker-eyes-festival-for-mullins-recruit/596522

[RoadToCheltenham]

Gowran Park entries for Thyestes day are out today. Believe the 2m Beginners Chase is one of the races mentioned by Ruby Walsh on RTC for Sir Gerhard.

[Dandrew99]

Gowran Park entries for Thyestes day are out today. Believe the 2m Beginners Chase is one of the races mentioned by Ruby Walsh on RTC for Sir Gerhard.

He's in

https://www.goracing.ie/race-meetings/race-card/?meeting=2023-018&race=1555

[Madmoose]

Backers of GDM for the NHC have had terrible luck with so many of Willies potential 3 milers being ruled out. I was 90/10 that GDM would end up in the NHC 3 weeks ago, but it now looks more likely he'll take in the BANC. Hopefully this post will provide GDM NHC backers with some hope.

Willies numbers for the Arkle and BANC couldn't be more different. His list of potential runners in the former grows weekly, whilst his list of BANC hopefuls seems to go in the opposite direction. Before establishing what goes where, I think three baseline assumptions most of us can agree on are:

• SR and DD are Arkle bound or bust
• Willie will not run EF and JDB in the same race
• 2m and 2m5f are more interchangeable trips than 2m5f and 3m

Re the Arkle, SR is a G1 winner over 2m and only entered in the Arkle. DD looks all over a 2 miler. You then have EF who ran to a debut RPR of 159 over 2m (Blue Lord was 148 the previous year) and he was unlucky not to beat the current market favourite over hurdles. You then have AI who keeps being placed over 2m, keeps winning over 2m and has tons of festival experience. Flame Bearer entered the picture recently too.

The DRF is going to be fascinating and pieces are going to slot into place very quickly. The Arkle market is effectively a bottle neck with the 'spill over' ending up in the Turners. I think Willie has to run DD v AI v EF to learn which is best, and it could very well be a win win win scenario. I take that view thAT AI and EF can come out the 2m5f G1 at the DRF, and so can 7 others who wouldn't be good enough (Adamantly Chosen, Authorised Art, Flame Bearer, Glengouly, Ha D'or, I Am Maximus and Kilcruit).

That leaves JDB, SG and GDM in the 2m5f G1 at the DRF. These horses hold the key.

GDM
No entry = NHC
Beaten = NHC
Win or close = BANC

JDB
Win free and keen = Turners
Win settled and off pace = BANC
Beaten = BANC

I cannot wait for the DRF.

I cashed him out for the NHC yesterday as was being offered nice cash out for the risk he might not even run. Also cashed out some Constitution Hill for close win if he won.

Put all the money in a Cheltenham wins pot so I don’t waste it.

[charlie]

Patrick Mullins on ATR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edltn_x3UvQ

'I love Appreciate It. He's another one like Allaho and Energumene, he just catches the eye. He's so big and strong'.

'He could be as good as anything in the yard'

You love to see it. Does nothing to clear up where he goes debate, but thats basically Patrick saying they think he'll beat whatever is put in front of him, wherever they go.

[FredFlintstone]

WMullins to win Arkle & Turners 7/2 - WHill

[Kevloaf]

Patrick Mullins on ATR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edltn_x3UvQ

'I love Appreciate It. He's another one like Allaho and Energumene, he just catches the eye. He's so big and strong'.

'He could be as good as anything in the yard'

You love to see it. Does nothing to clear up where he goes debate, but thats basically Patrick saying they think he'll beat whatever is put in front of him, wherever they go.

Have you backed him for both or you dying on your sword?

[charlie]

Have you backed him for both or you dying on your sword?

Put, Charlie mused......

Yeh I've backed him for both at double figure prices but mostly just smashed the TWAR price to take the headache out of it all.

He definitely makes me more money going to the Turners, but, I really really want to see him humble Jonbon!!!

If Appreciate It is as highly regarded as PM says then WPM is less likely to clash stars, so AI Turners could potentially see JDB go up the BANC, but IMO this only happens if JDB settles in the G1 over 2m5f and wins, or loses to AI but stays on.

The Novice Chase division this year is so outrageously good, and Sir Gerhard can be thrown in the mix too.

[AaronLad]

Have you backed him for both or you dying on your sword?

Arkle for me kev. 100 %. Straight there now.

[Lobos]

Dysart smashed for Arkle. El Fabiolo going the other way.

[Lobos]

GDM pushed out for NHC to 6/4 by PP. Ramillies into 8's.
GDM also pushed out in BANC ?