2023 Novice Chasers

[Quevega]

Don't wait!!! I think you can be a lot more confident in AI than this Kev!

The age thing is going to be overplayed for months. 9 year olds have won the Arkle before and only 6 have tried in the last 10 years, lots of which had no chance anyway (so I don't think its too statistically relevant).

We all know the Arkle is a natural novice stepping stone to the QMCC, but a horse doesn't know which race they are running in do they!

In the last 20 years six 9 year olds, two 10 year olds and an 11 year old have won the QMCC. Whilst its not conventional for a 9 year old to take in an Arkle, we're dripping in evidence that horses AI's age can blitz round Cheltenham over 2m at a championship pace so for me, bring it on.

I also think the Champion Hurdle run is a significant indicator as to his overall wellbeing. He was obviously well enough to go and they thought he'd win as the yard backed him into 100/30 against a superstar. That would demonstrate to me he was largely fine last year and it was just a minor issue. He didn't pull up either, he clearly just got tired, so thinking forward you'd have to be more optimistic than pessimistic wouldn't you?

I'll be gutted if he doesn't go chasing and to the Arkle because I like you think he could be special.

Here is a question - if Willie said today (after having taken some crack) 'Appreciate It will go to the Arkle' what price would be be?

Let's also not forget he managed to get a 12yr old novice to go off 3-1 Favourite for the Turners and finish a length back in third.
Age isn't a factor for me at 9yrs old.
Although the 12yr old had no chance - just.

[charlie]

Let's also not forget he managed to get a 12yr old novice to go off 3-1 Favourite for the Turners and finish a length back in third.
Age isn't a factor for me at 9yrs old.
Although the 12yr old had no chance - just.

Very good point! Too many horses win in an incredible fashion at 9 years old for that to be a factor IMO

[FinalFurlong91]

8 and 9 are a horses peak ages aren't they

Completely agree that isnt a reason to not back appreciate it

I see him as a very live chance for the turners which if Sir G goes to the arkle is a very open race.

The injury is the worry not the age for me

Being by Jeremy would worry me a little for both of them though, there's a few dodgy jumpers of a fence on his best chasers list

[Kevloaf]

8 and 9 are a horses peak ages aren't they

Completely agree that isnt a reason to not back appreciate it

I see him as a very live chance for the turners which if Sir G goes to the arkle is a very open race.

The injury is the worry not the age for me

Not all horses peak at 8 or 9 though, and there would be more examples of horses not hitting the potential after injury than getting back to match their best? (Also a generalisation on my part)


charlie - they're fair points, for me though the Appreciate It before injury, and the run, despite the confidence, means he isn't the star I think he was in the Supreme... you can see it as a positive run, but for me, I would have thought he'd win it, if back to his Supreme level....

Ultimately, that might be good enough to win an Arkle, but at 6/1 any race, when all the other trips are feasilble, I wouldn't back now, and couldn't risk 10/1 for the specific target.

If I'm wrong, I'll be able to recover and suck up the shorter price.

[FinalFurlong91]

Not all horses peak at 8 or 9 though, and there would be more examples of horses not hitting the potential after injury than getting back to match their best? (Also a generalisation on my part)


charlie - they're fair points, for me though the Appreciate It before injury, and the run, despite the confidence, means he isn't the star I think he was in the Supreme... you can see it as a positive run, but for me, I would have thought he'd win it, if back to his Supreme level....

Ultimately, that might be good enough to win an Arkle, but at 6/1 any race, when all the other trips are feasilble, I wouldn't back now, and couldn't risk 10/1 for the specific target.

If I'm wrong, I'll be able to recover and suck up the shorter price.

I think waiting is definitely the best option

Horses who get injured once and miss pretty much an entire season are generally not good for the ante post profit and loss

I have him backed but with free bets so no financial loss if it happens again. Wouldnt risk actual cash on him at this stage.

Will go in again if he impresses on his belated chase debut.

[Eggs]

…Flame Bearer is one that interests me if novice chasing is confirmed. Perhaps a little under the radar because he’s with P Doyle, but his win at Fairyhouse at Easter showed real attitude and he finished the season beaten only by State Man but ahead of TSL in the G1 novice hurdle at Punchestown.

TSL is a best price 12-1 for Turners whilst Flame Bearer is 25-1.

[Madmoose]

TSL surely felt effects from a long season and taking in three festivals?

[charlie]

Not all horses peak at 8 or 9 though, and there would be more examples of horses not hitting the potential after injury than getting back to match their best? (Also a generalisation on my part)

charlie - they're fair points, for me though the Appreciate It before injury, and the run, despite the confidence, means he isn't the star I think he was in the Supreme... you can see it as a positive run, but for me, I would have thought he'd win it, if back to his Supreme level....

Ultimately, that might be good enough to win an Arkle, but at 6/1 any race, when all the other trips are feasilble, I wouldn't back now, and couldn't risk 10/1 for the specific target.

If I'm wrong, I'll be able to recover and suck up the shorter price.

Yeh I cracked and took 6/1 any race for that specific reason.

I think the injury is being overplayed. IMO injuries and minor setback's are two different things. When a horse is out for the season having done a ligament like Ferny they are unbackable IMO until you know they are healthy and well. Appreciate It had a minor setback and lost a couple of weeks over Xmas, so it just cant have been serious, further endorsed by the CH run.

[Quevega]

Yeh I cracked and took 6/1 any race for that specific reason.

I think the injury is being overplayed. IMO injuries and minor setback's are two different things. When a horse is out for the season having done a ligament like Ferny they are unbackable IMO until you know they are healthy and well. Appreciate It had a minor setback and lost a couple of weeks over Xmas, so it just cant have been serious, further endorsed by the CH run.

Does anyone know why he didn't run again after the Champion though ?
expecting him to win the champion based on supreme hurdle form is a bit of a stretch Kevloaf

you could argue he ran well given he made the running and might have done too much.
= tennis ???

[RoadToCheltenham]

…Flame Bearer is one that interests me if novice chasing is confirmed. Perhaps a little under the radar because he’s with P Doyle, but his win at Fairyhouse at Easter showed real attitude and he finished the season beaten only by State Man but ahead of TSL in the G1 novice hurdle at Punchestown.

TSL is a best price 12-1 for Turners whilst Flame Bearer is 25-1.

Flame Bearer is with Willie Mullins now I guess bookies are taking into account that he has so many, 1 or 2 are bound to miss out...

Link - https://www.goracing.ie/racing-stati...ta/?hid=195499

[charlie]

Does anyone know why he didn't run again after the Champion though ?
expecting him to win the champion based on supreme hurdle form is a bit of a stretch Kevloaf

you could argue he ran well given he made the running and might have done too much.
= tennis ???

No idea. My guess is he wasn't fully fit and drawing stumps for the season over a discipline they'd no longer pursue, I hope it's that.

He absolutely ran well. Making the running and going down 9L to Honeysuckle off a poor prep and no race fitness was pretty good I thought.

[Kevloaf]

Does anyone know why he didn't run again after the Champion though ?
expecting him to win the champion based on supreme hurdle form is a bit of a stretch Kevloaf

you could argue he ran well given he made the running and might have done too much.
= tennis ???

It wasn't based on the Supreme Hurdle form, it was based on the ceiling I had him at, which is now lower...

It's like me saying The Beatles are over rated.... they're still great, but over rated.

Appreciate It, I over rated, he's still great, but not as good as I thought.


My fishing rod is out.

[That Horse]

It's like me saying The Beatles are over rated.... they're still great, but over rated.

What's your favourite album? It's a tough one but I'd have to say the Best of the Beatles.

[robith]

What's your favourite album? It's a tough one but I'd have to say the Best of the Beatles.

Back in my days of being a superstar indie DJ, some girl was trying to flirt with me and went "What's your favourite Smiths album?"

I was like "Err, Best of the Smiths?"

She was unamused

[Quevega]

It wasn't based on the Supreme Hurdle form, it was based on the ceiling I had him at, which is now lower...

It's like me saying The Beatles are over rated.... they're still great, but over rated.

Appreciate It, I over rated, he's still great, but not as good as I thought.


My fishing rod is out.

Even Lionel couldn't dance on your ceiling at the first attempt in open company, in the pinnacle race, after a year off, against an unbeaten mare.
Plastercine head's and all.

How high is your ceiling for Constitution Hill ??

FWIW - I think he might be the best we've ever seen.

Do you think if he had a setback he'd win this seasons Champion hurdle first time up ?