2023 Novice Chasers

[Silverbirch]

Strange how people perceive comments - I personally thought it sounded like he was almost ready to run and that it would be in a beginners.

Ruby pretty much said its pointless taking on Con Hill so going chasing is the obvious call.

Let him go and do a Cilaos Emery (but actually make the fez)

I don't think it helps that the show itself and production of the show, is shoddy at best. Every other minute there is a screen of ruby and Lydia crossing there arms.
Then they'll go back to the same conversation but from a different section all together.
The part last night which really got me was the amount of air time asterion furlonge got, clearly no one cares but he came up in 3 parts of the show.

All in all I still maintain the yard want him in the Churdle but there's no point. At that point the convo about chasing is moot for me. From a betting perspective.

[ComplyOrDie]

I don't want to batter Mighty Potter, I have him more than covered, but I guess I'm a little surprised by some very bullish podcasts about him in recent weeks.

He's beat Gaillard Du Mesnil over 2m4f, that is it, really. I would expect the likes of Appreciate It, James Du Berlais and Saint Roi to all do the same tbh.

It's not Mighty Potters fault that's all he has beat, of course, but his stablemate and main market rival on the day, Three Stripe Life, absolutely ploughed through a fence and was subsequently pulled up, and Banbridge looks to prefer better ground.

I think which ever two (or three) of Mullins horses end up here are likely to replace Mighty Potter as the head of the market, which means, if I'm right of course, that Mighty Potter is a bad favourite at the moment. The fact we don't know which Mullins horse(s) are going to turn up here is the only reason Mighty Potter remains favourite, IMO.

Now, having a horse hold up the market is great news for everyone else, because the prices remain competitive elsewhere.

And so.....

I think Saint Roi is being seriously overlooked, mostly because there has been a lot of the whole Appreciate It argument about where he or won't he run in recent weeks. Saint Roi is 12/1 NRNB, Appreciate It is 9/2. Saint Roi finished ahead of Appreciate It in the Champion Hurdle and looked in need of a step up in trip. Saint Roi is also only 7 years old, so has the 'younger legs' under him. Saint Roi has faced far better opposition so far than Appreciate It, and also, even if somewhat fortuitously, won a Grade 1. He didn't have to beat much in the end on that day as his main rival, Fil Dor made a race ending mistake, but he did win the race in the shape of a horse that again, could do with a step up in trip.

You would also have to think that it is almost a certainty that Saint Roi doesn't end up in the Arkle because Jonbon is there heading the market for JP.

[riccirich]

I don't want to batter Mighty Potter, I have him more than covered, but I guess I'm a little surprised by some very bullish podcasts about him in recent weeks.

He's beat Gaillard Du Mesnil over 2m4f, that is it, really. I would expect the likes of Appreciate It, James Du Berlais and Saint Roi to all do the same tbh.

It's not Mighty Potters fault that's all he has beat, of course, but his stablemate and main market rival on the day, Three Stripe Life, absolutely ploughed through a fence and was subsequently pulled up, and Banbridge looks to prefer better ground.

I think which ever two (or three) of Mullins horses end up here are likely to replace Mighty Potter as the head of the market, which means, if I'm right of course, that Mighty Potter is a bad favourite at the moment. The fact we don't know which Mullins horse(s) are going to turn up here is the only reason Mighty Potter remains favourite, IMO.

Now, having a horse hold up the market is great news for everyone else, because the prices remain competitive elsewhere.

And so.....

I think Saint Roi is being seriously overlooked, mostly because there has been a lot of the whole Appreciate It argument about where he or won't he run in recent weeks. Saint Roi is 12/1 NRNB, Appreciate It is 9/2. Saint Roi finished ahead of Appreciate It in the Champion Hurdle and looked in need of a step up in trip. Saint Roi is also only 7 years old, so has the 'younger legs' under him. Saint Roi has faced far better opposition so far than Appreciate It, and also, even if somewhat fortuitously, won a Grade 1. He didn't have to beat much in the end on that day as his main rival, Fil Dor made a race ending mistake, but he did win the race in the shape of a horse that again, could do with a step up in trip.

You would also have to think that it is almost a certainty that Saint Roi doesn't end up in the Arkle because Jonbon is there heading the market for JP.

Just on your last paragraph, I wouldn’t think it’s a certainty at all that he avoids Jonbon, quotes from Mullins seem to suggest that he thinks saint roi is all speed, and Mullins usually decides where his horses go. I don’t think jp McManus is too bothered about two of his facing off, and since he is on the other side of the water he would still have his other retained rider in mark Walsh to ride. If your going nrnb though as you say it isn’t a big deal.

[Lobos]

Sir G hopefully back on the scene and going chasing it seems, really will mess with everyone's minds and deepens the Mullins Bingo further. For me, if fit, he was always going Turners, so that now scuppers my theory that Appreciate It will go for the same race. Everything up in the air again!! What a season this is. Like no other.

[AnFiieLD.]

I don't want to batter Mighty Potter, I have him more than covered, but I guess I'm a little surprised by some very bullish podcasts about him in recent weeks.

He's beat Gaillard Du Mesnil over 2m4f, that is it, really. I would expect the likes of Appreciate It, James Du Berlais and Saint Roi to all do the same tbh.

It's not Mighty Potters fault that's all he has beat, of course, but his stablemate and main market rival on the day, Three Stripe Life, absolutely ploughed through a fence and was subsequently pulled up, and Banbridge looks to prefer better ground.

I think which ever two (or three) of Mullins horses end up here are likely to replace Mighty Potter as the head of the market, which means, if I'm right of course, that Mighty Potter is a bad favourite at the moment. The fact we don't know which Mullins horse(s) are going to turn up here is the only reason Mighty Potter remains favourite, IMO.

Now, having a horse hold up the market is great news for everyone else, because the prices remain competitive elsewhere.

And so.....

I think Saint Roi is being seriously overlooked, mostly because there has been a lot of the whole Appreciate It argument about where he or won't he run in recent weeks. Saint Roi is 12/1 NRNB, Appreciate It is 9/2. Saint Roi finished ahead of Appreciate It in the Champion Hurdle and looked in need of a step up in trip. Saint Roi is also only 7 years old, so has the 'younger legs' under him. Saint Roi has faced far better opposition so far than Appreciate It, and also, even if somewhat fortuitously, won a Grade 1. He didn't have to beat much in the end on that day as his main rival, Fil Dor made a race ending mistake, but he did win the race in the shape of a horse that again, could do with a step up in trip.

You would also have to think that it is almost a certainty that Saint Roi doesn't end up in the Arkle because Jonbon is there heading the market for JP.

I'm definitely in agreement with your sentiment on Mighty Potter. Last season he also beat what looked to be an amiss Sir Gerhard at Punchestown and his form this season is potentially 'murky' as you've pointed out with him beating GDM over a trip short of his optimum (it was also GDM first time up and MP had the benefit of a run so you'd fully expect him to be coming out on top in the circumstances).

I'd be very surprised if Mighty Potter ended up winning this race (assuming all potential rivals stay fit) and have backed accordingly with AI and Saint Roi in the NRNB markets. I don't think Jonbon really comes into the equation with Saint Roi, I just think it's more a case of him looking like he'll be suited by 2m5.

Curious to see how Willie plays his cards.

[FinalFurlong91]

Couldn't have sir G for any race after this prep myself

[BookieBasher]

Couldn't have sir G for any race after this prep myself

I can just see a scenario of being entered in races and then not taking up the entry. I’ve got quite a few bets on Sir G but like you I can’t have him off the back of this season’s setback

[Lobos]

Couldn't have sir G for any race after this prep myself

Agree not the best of preps but he's with the best man to get horses at their best from any layoff. He was Willie's best Novice Hurdler by some way last season so if he can translate that to fences then we could have some beast on our hands. He's been my number 1 festival horse from last season with Vega a very close 2nd so I'm not about to desert him now. Fingers crossed he returns in good shape and in good time.

[HesTheOne]

The part last night which really got me was the amount of air time asterion furlonge got, clearly no one cares but he came up in 3 parts of the show.

This! There was so many others worth talking about Jesus but they kept going back to AF

I do love the race analysis piece ruby does, I really like hearing him talk from a jockeys point of view

[Benjy23]

Couldn't have sir G for any race after this prep myself

Depends what happens in any prep run(s) surely. No point in writing him off at this point.

Equally I wouldn't be looking to back him at the moment. Would much rather a horse I'd seen run since a setback, than one who was having his first appearance since one.

[darlojim]

Depends what happens in any prep run(s) surely. No point in writing him off at this point.

Equally I wouldn't be looking to back him at the moment. Would much rather a horse I'd seen run since a setback, than one who was having his first appearance since one.

Yeah I doubt anyone is racing to take prices on Sir G now after the positive comments in the last 24hrs, but it definitely gives hope for any people who already had bets that looked in the bin!

What I do know is someone managed to grab some tasty exchange prices!

[jrjr]

By set back are people meaning injury? If so, I don’t remember that.

Can recall a Willie interview where he said SG wasn’t working as he wanted him to in order to run him. I assumed his debut was on hold until Willie saw what he wanted.

He will have a prep run and then presumably his second race at Cheltenham. He isn’t really that far behind the others. Lots of horses run very well in their second runs of the season, and SG isn’t (or wasn’t last year) an average horse.

Happy to corrected!

[Benjy23]

By set back are people meaning injury? If so, I don’t remember that.

Can recall a Willie interview where he said SG wasn’t working as he wanted him to in order to run him. I assumed his debut was on hold until Willie saw what he wanted.

He will have a prep run and then presumably his second race at Cheltenham. He isn’t really that far behind the others. Lots of horses run very well in their second runs of the season, and SG isn’t (or wasn’t last year) an average horse.

Happy to corrected!

CPS definitely said he was injured. Even that he was likely to miss the festival from what I remember.

[robith]

CPS definitely said he was injured. Even that he was likely to miss the festival from what I remember.

I went back and checked it today cos it sounded like they've been retconning what they've said about him, and was surprised to find CPS' statement was much vauger than I recall

[OffTheBridle]

I went back and checked it today cos it sounded like they've been retconning what they've said about him, and was surprised to find CPS' statement was much vauger than I recall

There might have been another quote but below quote from Richard Thompson published 22nd of Dec.

“Sir Gerhard’s got an injury, unfortunately. He’s going to be out for a few weeks.

“That (chasing) is still the idea, but he won’t run over the Christmas period.

“Whether he’s back for Cheltenham, who knows? It’s disappointing.”