2023 Novice Chasers

[Carnage at Taunton]

What do you think happens when Appreciate It wins the Irish Arkle? Still going Turners or to the Arkle?

Do you mean if?

I hope he does run in the Arkle, more the merrier, but we all know how his trainer operates by now, as many winners as possible
Just a case of waiting to see after DRF, how he splits them

[Kevloaf]

As previously pointed out Appreciate It is likely Turners bound. I understand that Charlie does not want to hear it, but that is what logic would suggest. WM wants to WIN as many races as possible at Cheltenham. He will not send all his big guns at the Arkle, he has a proper favourite to beat. He knew this last year and had a decision to make on how he split them. As it was, he put DD up against CH & Jonbon and stepped up SirG to Bally. He knew that gave him the best chance.

As I suspect he new CH is a freak and therefore no point in burning 2 good horses chasing the win. SirG did him proud and won the Bally with something to spare.

Ask yourself if WM is splitting DD and AI who do you think would be best suited to 2 1/2 miles? I will give you a clue its not DD.

Of course there could be injuries or a poor performance that changes his mind, but I feel the 10's available on AI for the Turners is going to look very big in March.

If Appreciate It would be such a good chance in the Turners, compared to the Arkle, is the 9/2 NRNB price not big enough to get stuck in to?

I personally don't see how you can claim it's a sure thing he'll go to the Turners based on 'logic' of wanting winners ... there are plenty of logical arguements on both sides as to where he's most likely to turn up... plenty of logical reasons he'd go to the Arkle that you're dismissing....

The main point being he's going to run again, and if he wins at 2m, it does make the Arkle more logical regardless of others, and if he loses, it makes his 'win' chance less likely over further just based on ability?

Too dogmatic about where he'll go perhaps?

Depends on your betting approach of course, for someone like me the 10s (was 12s) was worth the risk but I'd played any race as he's a horse that very clearly doesn't have a clear target. Clear as mud.

[Lobos]

All bets will need to be placed prior to the DRF because if all 4 Mullins mob take each other on then the victor will go very short for the Arkle and one or two of them will likely skip the race

[jrjr]

As many have pointed out, this race appears the most intriguing of puzzles. The 16's offered on Gentlemansgame keeps drawing me in. Those above him in the betting:

Thyme Hill - will run down my road naked if he wins
The Real Whacker - as above but may keep my pants on
GDM - probably NHC but wouldn't strike fear into your heart if he does turn up. Probably does his trademark and stays on to pick up a place
Gerri Colombe - huge threat if he runs
James Du Berlais - Turners
Classic Getaway - AWOL, probably cuddling Minella Cocooner
Ballygriffincottage - not sure, needs to prove himself
ADV - mares chase for all the cookies
Ramillies - see Thyme Hill
Gentlemansgame - talented, unexposed, good debut, time to top up is now if he is declared at Punchestown on Sunday

[Silverbirch]

As many have pointed out, this race appears the most intriguing of puzzles. The 16's offered on Gentlemansgame keeps drawing me in. Those above him in the betting:

Thyme Hill - will run down my road naked if he wins
The Real Whacker - as above but may keep my pants on
GDM - probably NHC but wouldn't strike fear into your heart if he does turn up. Probably does his trademark and stays on to pick up a place
Gerri Colombe - huge threat if he runs
James Du Berlais - Turners
Classic Getaway - AWOL, probably cuddling Minella Cocooner
Ballygriffincottage - not sure, needs to prove himself
ADV - mares chase for all the cookies
Ramillies - see Thyme Hill
Gentlemansgame - talented, unexposed, good debut, time to top up is now if he is declared at Punchestown on Sunday

All well and good but surely unlikely robcour won't send both Gerri and GMG both to the banc and therefore GMG at risk of going to the NHC aswell, just to muddy the waters even more for you

[Kevloaf]

As many have pointed out, this race appears the most intriguing of puzzles. The 16's offered on Gentlemansgame keeps drawing me in. Those above him in the betting:

Thyme Hill - will run down my road naked if he wins
The Real Whacker - as above but may keep my pants on
GDM - probably NHC but wouldn't strike fear into your heart if he does turn up. Probably does his trademark and stays on to pick up a place
Gerri Colombe - huge threat if he runs
James Du Berlais - Turners
Classic Getaway - AWOL, probably cuddling Minella Cocooner
Ballygriffincottage - not sure, needs to prove himself
ADV - mares chase for all the cookies
Ramillies - see Thyme Hill
Gentlemansgame - talented, unexposed, good debut, time to top up is now if he is declared at Punchestown on Sunday

JDB Turners? Is that a done deal?
if so, you missed Bronn off for the BANC - runs on for 3rd ...



Gerri Colombe is the reason Gentlemansgame isn't a bet without NRNB isn't he?

I better look at those related doubles actually, good thinking batmanjrjr

[DenmanSacre]

Didn't one of the Acheson lot say they wouldn't be afraid of putting more than 1 of their horses in the same race if that was the best race for them? They also weren't overly keen on the NHC.

I would expect both GMG and GC to go to the BANC, all being well with them both.

[Cashew King]

Didn't one of the Acheson lot say they wouldn't be afraid of putting more than 1 of their horses in the same race if that was the best race for them? They also weren't overly keen on the NHC.

I would expect both GMG and GC to go to the BANC, all being well with them both.

Rob Acheson did the interview with the lads from We’re Going Chasing podcast link below

https://www.youtube.com/embed/9gwy-lAF0qY

[Odin]

I think it's worth noting the GMG/GC post race comments following their last wins:

** GC taken from racing post quotes
GERRI COLOMBE just keeps winning. He doesn't do anything fancy at home and when he got to the front he pulled himself up again. We're lucky to have him. We'll have a look to see where he might run next - I don't know yet. The National Hunt Chase, or something like that, might suit if the ground was soft. He's a lovely horse who wouldn't like the ground very quick. He was a big baby last season and is coming to himself now - Gordon Elliott, trainer

** GMG taken from Irish racing (https://www.irishracing.com/news/Mor...ansgame/237602)
Mouse Morris said: “He fiddled a few which was good when he got in a bit close, and the faster he was going the better he was jumping. He’ll come on plenty from that.

“Three miles is his trip and he’ll have to go into Graded races now. He might come back here for the (Dublin Racing) Festival.

“You only have to look at him and you can’t help loving him. He’s the kind of horse I really like.”


To me, the potential routes are set more strongly than perhaps we give them credit for, particularly in the case of GMG. The comments about GMG also fit with Mouse's ability to ready a staying chaser for the RSA - acceptable record for the quality of horse whereas Gordy's record in the RSA is dog. Similarly the Acheson quotes about loving GMG for the RSA ew seem to suggest a strong push in that direction for him. Doesn't mean GC wouldn't go there as well, but not sure GMG would be switched for GC to go RSA is my point. Of course, this is dependent on the horses continuing to win/perform well before the festival...

[Eggs]

….I might have this wrong, but I also thought Acheson said he’d be against GC going NHC because the prize money in the Irish National is much better.

[charlie]

….I might have this wrong, but I also thought Acheson said he’d be against GC going NHC because the prize money in the Irish National is much better.

I need to watch it back, but I think it revolved around whether or not they think he's a G1 animal. Ie, if he is then obviously its the BANC, if he's not then why go for 60k in the NHC when you can win 290k a few weeks later. That argument makes sense, however, lots of 1's next to his name, now a Grade 1 winner, that sell is an easy one to connections isn't it? I said the other say I think the NHC could very well be his race but now I type this I'm not so sure. The novice chasers this year are a puzzle wrapped up inside an enigma. I love it and hate it, in equal measure.

[Eggs]

I need to watch it back, but I think it revolved around whether or not they think he's a G1 animal. Ie, if he is then obviously its the BANC, if he's not then why go for 60k in the NHC when you can win 290k a few weeks later. That argument makes sense, however, lots of 1's next to his name, now a Grade 1 winner, that sell is an easy one to connections isn't it? I said the other say I think the NHC could very well be his race but now I type this I'm not so sure. The novice chasers this year are a puzzle wrapped up inside an enigma. I love it and hate it, in equal measure.

…there’s a link to that Robcour interview in post 1 of the Stable Tour thread.

[Silverbirch]

Worth reminding that Gerri isn't even qualified yet for the NHC yet.

[Saxon Warrior]

….I might have this wrong, but I also thought Acheson said he’d be against GC going NHC because the prize money in the Irish National is much better.

The young lad said this didnt he?

It made good sense, the Irish National dwarfs all Handicap Chase and Grade 1 and 2 Novice Chase pots now, and has become a bigger destination race for those Irish horses, in particular the Staying novices that aren't quite Grade 1 level in their Novice Season.

Having said that, Gaillard DM was 3rd in the BANC then placed in the Irish National last season.

In general I'd always be a little wary now, of Kim Muir and NHC Irish horses being aimed at the Irish National instead (before I saw early entries in the Irish National, NHC and Festival handicaps)

My preference is to have trainers state an aim for the Kim Muir or NHC, to have more certainty on that score.

The Irish National is on Monday 10th April this year.

Almost 4 weeks after the NHC.
So it's possible to go in both races.

However weights aren't released for the Irish National until after Cheltenham.

You'd really have to hope and expect that Grade 1 Novice Chasers wouldnt get involved in a BANC vs Irish National debate though.

They'd mostly try Grade 1s first, and if not successful could slot into the Irish National ?
(Like Gaillard DM last season)

NHC, BANC early entries - Tues 17th January (in 5 days)

NHC, BANC 2nd stage entries - Tues 14th Feb

Kim Muir early entries - Tues 21st Feb

Irish National will still only be at Early Entries stage when the Cheltenham Festival is on.

[Lobos]

Worth reminding that Gerri isn't even qualified yet for the NHC yet.

Yep and neither is GMG. Very good point. IMO Gordon will want his best staying chaser in the BANC and that's Gerri. Mouse has already said GMG optimum trip is 3 miles so just have two darts at the race. Personally don't think GMG will prove good enough though.