2023 Novice Chasers

[Craigy14]

I agree with lobos here 7/8-1 isn’t bad when considering horses could run in any number of races. You do have to be selective with them but are particularly useful for novice hurdlers that could run in 3 or 4 different races. You can blow a fortune backing horses for the wrong races and even more so if you don’t have access to cash out.
Even now 10 weeks out nobody can predict with any degree of certainty where the following will go…
- Gaelic warrior
- Grangeclare west
- Impaire et passe
- the Arkle trio
- James du berlais
- Minella cocooner
- Gailard du mesnil
TWAR solves that problem and most would now be value prices wherever they run against their current market odds.

It was something I used a couple years ago, when the prices were a lot better, but not now.

Rather back a horse for most likely 2 races than TWAR at more than half the price. They run shit you’ve probably lost your dough straight away, you’re on early enough can get out with little loss or half stakes normally unless they fall out the back of the TV.

Anyway sidetracking the thread so will leave it there.

[Kautostar]

It was something I used a couple years ago, when the prices were a lot better, but not now.

Rather back a horse for most likely 2 races than TWAR at more than half the price. They run shit you’ve probably lost your dough straight away, you’re on early enough can get out with little loss or half stakes normally unless they fall out the back of the TV.

Anyway sidetracking the thread so will leave it there.

But if they run shit your cashout option will be snatched away assuming it’s with a bookie that does that whereas with TWAR you’ve always got the back door escape route of a hcap to fall back on even they get beat

[Craigy14]

But if they run shit your cashout option will be snatched away assuming it’s with a bookie that does that whereas with TWAR you’ve always got the back door escape route of a hcap to fall back on even they get beat

Handicaps will become less and less so due to the new rules though.

Very little novices will be in them with compared to previous years.

[Kautostar]

Handicaps will become less and less so due to the new rules though.

Very little novices will be in them with compared to previous years.

I still think you’ll get a fair share of novices qualified to run but agree it will be a smaller pool that previous years. More helpful to the early season TWAR bets for those with early entries

[Quevega]

The any race market is like any other.
There will be value somewhere.

I personally like it for Juveniles when the price is not dissimilar to the price for the triumph. Especially a horse with a reputation/price tag with a big yard.

For example.

Jazzy Matty 33-1 v 25-1.
Looks a player in the Boodles now.

There are other examples of potential graded novice chasers that may revert back or end in a handicap over hurdles or fences. Again with reputations from big yards and cheltenham experience/ambitions.

I personally have never seen much value in the classier more obvious ones, but I'm sure some work out and every now and then the price when compared with the specific race prices looks worth taking.

It is 100% not a strategy to base a portfolio on IMO, unless your motivation is not having to do anything/much for the rest of the year.

[charlie]

I have a feeling he's using this race as he's still unsure about 2miles. The Arkle is always a rapidly run race in which no prisoners are taken. Think they'll fly him out from the start and see if he can keep up a strong pace all the way and also whether he can jump accurately at pace. He'll then make a decision on which way to go.

A conversation about the merit of AI going up in trip is one thing, but surely there can be close to zero doubt that WPM is unsure of AI over 2m. He's been to Cheltenham 3 times, all over 2 miles. He's won 3 grade 1's, all over 2 miles. Sunday will be his 11th start for Willie, his 10th over 2m. All of that screams happy over 2m IMO, not unsure.

I'm also fairly sure that barring a loss, the calibre of this race wouldn't influence a long term outcome. I wont be getting carried away though. If, and its still an if, AI blitzes them from the front and is much better than on debut, he'll still have the same question marks that the others have, which is competing in easier races, front running, and not doing winning in deep company.

[Kautostar]

The any race market is like any other.
There will be value somewhere.

I personally like it for Juveniles when the price is not dissimilar to the price for the triumph. Especially a horse with a reputation/price tag with a big yard.

For example.

Jazzy Matty 33-1 v 25-1.
Looks a player in the Boodles now.

There are other examples of potential graded novice chasers that may revert back or end in a handicap over hurdles or fences. Again with reputations from big yards and cheltenham experience/ambitions.

I personally have never seen much value in the classier more obvious ones, but I'm sure some work out and every now and then the price when compared with the specific race prices looks worth taking.

It is 100% not a strategy to base a portfolio on IMO, unless your motivation is not having to do anything/much for the rest of the year.

I wouldn’t base a portfolio around twar but if used correctly it’s something that should be incorporated into a strategy. You have to be selective and definitely works best in the novice divisions but I think it’s a vastly underrated option especially to those without the cash out options anymore.

[charlie]

Has someone somewhere put up The Real Whacker? Loads of blue today. 7/1 in places is way too short IMO. Who is backing him at that price? Debut over hurdles too bad to be true, so best ignored. Ran to an RPR of 144 (which is rubbish for that race) to beat a 133 rated chaser Indigo Breeze by half a length. No denying the Dipper run was a solid performance and a big step in the right direction, but he's got a freebie on the front end, jumped the last 8L ahead of the 150 rated Thunder Rock who was closing with every stride (eventually lost 3L). It looked good, but thats all it looked. I know LHP won the race last year and perhaps whoever put him up is trying to connect the same dots or tread the same stepping stones, but it wasn't that type of performance IMO, now way near. TRW looked to fall in rather than win it as a classy animal. Respect cheltenham experience and cheltenham form, it's an important thing to have on the CV, but I don't think he'll be good enough for this.

[That Horse]

Has someone somewhere put up The Real Whacker? Loads of blue today. 7/1 in places is way too short IMO. Who is backing him at that price? Debut over hurdles too bad to be true, so best ignored. Ran to an RPR of 144 (which is rubbish for that race) to beat a 133 rated chaser Indigo Breeze by half a length. No denying the Dipper run was a solid performance and a big step in the right direction, but he's got a freebie on the front end, jumped the last 8L ahead of the 150 rated Thunder Rock who was closing with every stride (eventually lost 3L). It looked good, but thats all it looked. I know LHP won the race last year and perhaps whoever put him up is trying to connect the same dots or tread the same stepping stones, but it wasn't that type of performance IMO, now way near. TRW looked to fall in rather than win it as a classy animal. Respect cheltenham experience and cheltenham form, it's an important thing to have on the CV, but I don't think he'll be good enough for this.

Haven't backed him and want him to lose at Cheltenham for a very silly and childish reason, so that afterwards, he can be called The Real Wanker

[Lobos]

Just think the BANC looks wide open ATM and pretty average to be honest. No real Irish star has stepped forward and no Irish trainer has confirmed the BANC as 100% the target for any of their horses. All up in the air.

[Outlaw]

Has someone somewhere put up The Real Whacker? Loads of blue today. 7/1 in places is way too short IMO. Who is backing him at that price? Debut over hurdles too bad to be true, so best ignored. Ran to an RPR of 144 (which is rubbish for that race) to beat a 133 rated chaser Indigo Breeze by half a length. No denying the Dipper run was a solid performance and a big step in the right direction, but he's got a freebie on the front end, jumped the last 8L ahead of the 150 rated Thunder Rock who was closing with every stride (eventually lost 3L). It looked good, but thats all it looked. I know LHP won the race last year and perhaps whoever put him up is trying to connect the same dots or tread the same stepping stones, but it wasn't that type of performance IMO, now way near. TRW looked to fall in rather than win it as a classy animal. Respect cheltenham experience and cheltenham form, it's an important thing to have on the CV, but I don't think he'll be good enough for this.

Been mentioned by quite a few analysing it vs the hcap Daryl/Rowlands/Holding over the last few days so no doubt a few have been nibbling away 16/12s etc. Not saying I agree with the current price but it's more a reflection of the openness of the market that he's into single digits, nothing has taken a strangle hold of this race and possibly won't until Dublin.

[Exar Essay]

Haven't backed him and want him to lose at Cheltenham for a very silly and childish reason, so that afterwards, he can be called The Real Wanker

Lydia’s tip in her column. And they were eulogising re his ride on RTC.

[Irish Rugby]

Has someone somewhere put up The Real Whacker? Loads of blue today. 7/1 in places is way too short IMO. Who is backing him at that price? Debut over hurdles too bad to be true, so best ignored. Ran to an RPR of 144 (which is rubbish for that race) to beat a 133 rated chaser Indigo Breeze by half a length. No denying the Dipper run was a solid performance and a big step in the right direction, but he's got a freebie on the front end, jumped the last 8L ahead of the 150 rated Thunder Rock who was closing with every stride (eventually lost 3L). It looked good, but thats all it looked. I know LHP won the race last year and perhaps whoever put him up is trying to connect the same dots or tread the same stepping stones, but it wasn't that type of performance IMO, now way near. TRW looked to fall in rather than win it as a classy animal. Respect cheltenham experience and cheltenham form, it's an important thing to have on the CV, but I don't think he'll be good enough for this.

Simon Rowland in his weekly sectionals piece on the ATR site was very complimentary, but that was Wednesday.

[ComplyOrDie]

Has someone somewhere put up The Real Whacker? Loads of blue today. 7/1 in places is way too short IMO. Who is backing him at that price? Debut over hurdles too bad to be true, so best ignored. Ran to an RPR of 144 (which is rubbish for that race) to beat a 133 rated chaser Indigo Breeze by half a length. No denying the Dipper run was a solid performance and a big step in the right direction, but he's got a freebie on the front end, jumped the last 8L ahead of the 150 rated Thunder Rock who was closing with every stride (eventually lost 3L). It looked good, but thats all it looked. I know LHP won the race last year and perhaps whoever put him up is trying to connect the same dots or tread the same stepping stones, but it wasn't that type of performance IMO, now way near. TRW looked to fall in rather than win it as a classy animal. Respect cheltenham experience and cheltenham form, it's an important thing to have on the CV, but I don't think he'll be good enough for this.

Couldn't agree more charlie

It's obvious he's improved for a fence, but if anyone is backing him off the back of the Dipper form I think they are asking for trouble.

As you note, Thunder Rock was a strange ride and no doubt would have won, IMO, had he not been put so far back, and on that basis not one person would even be talking about The Real Whacker now had that happened.

The better bet would be Thunder Rock in a handicap (obviously NRNB).

Daryl/Simon/Andy can talk time figures all they like, that's all they ever do, but time figures are not the be all and end all of horse racing otherwise everyone would use them solely and be millionaires off the back of them.

[Outlaw]

Daryl/Simon/Andy can talk time figures all they like, that's all they ever do, but time figures are not the be all and end all of horse racing otherwise everyone would use them solely and be millionaires off the back of them.

Crikey, was merely stating a few who have talked him up/analysed him. There not the be all and end all agreed, but he wouldn't of got half the coverage and price clips if nobody was doing that sort of stuff and looking at it purely on visuals. Swings and roundabouts.