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2023 Novice Chasers

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  • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

    This is an interesting one.
    Because Patrick being given the ride on GDM in the RSA would compensate somewhat.
    Think Townend would get the option though, especially if he's won another grade 1 by then.
    So swings and roundabouts really
    Willie use’s Rachael sometimes too….and Henry only has JWM I think in novice chasers …..so poss option
    Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)

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    • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

      This is an interesting one.
      Because Patrick being given the ride on GDM in the RSA would compensate somewhat.
      Think Townend would get the option though, especially if he's won another grade 1 by then.
      So swings and roundabouts really
      Not sure JP views re Saint Roi going vs Jonbon? That was my logic for him going 2.5…,plus looks like he settles
      Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)

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      • Originally posted by Speedy17 View Post
        My prediction for the Mullins brigade (not that it means anything!)

        Arkle
        Dysart Dynamo (Townend)
        EL Fabiolo (Jacob)
        Saint Roi (Walsh)

        Turners
        Appreciate It (Townend)
        James Du Berlais (Jacob)
        Kilcruit (Patrick)

        Brown Advisory
        Minella Cocooner (Townend/Danny)
        Classic Getaway (Townend/Danny)
        Bronn (Jacob)
        Ramilies (Cooper/Patrick)

        NH Chase
        Gaillard Du Mesnil (Patrick)

        I've probably forgotten a couple!
        First one of these which I'm fully agreed on. Could maybe add Whatdeawant in the NHC too for jody townend too

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

          This is an interesting one.
          Because Patrick being given the ride on GDM in the RSA would compensate somewhat.
          Think Townend would get the option though, especially if he's won another grade 1 by then.
          So swings and roundabouts really
          The only Grade 1 left for the BANC types left in Ireland is the 2M5F one, be interesting if Gaillard DM had another step back in trip for a pop at that race or took in a Grade 2 (with a pen) instead.

          He's a thoroughly admirable, consistent performer.

          His Grade 1 win RPR was only 151 (lowest in that race for 10 years, due to largely average opposition and TSL not making it - RIP).

          That still leaves him on an Irish 156 rating.

          He also ran to a BHA Performance Figure of 156 when 3rd in the BANC in March.

          So maybe Grand National dreams could be possible too, for another 7yo gelding on the trot coming over from Ireland.

          National weights are published after the DRF on 21st February. So any performance there could impact his (and others) Grand National weights.
          "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

          Comment


          • Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View Post

            Not sure JP views re Saint Roi going vs Jonbon? That was my logic for him going 2.5…,plus looks like he settles
            Don't think it would bother JP, and he has the 2 jockeys, if both fit, so they'd be happy enough as well.
            But with Jonbon Favourite it wouldn't take much persuasion either.

            Comment


            • Mullins bingo could become a lot easier to predict if both Minella Cocooner and Classic Getaway don't make it to the Fez. We've heard nothing to say they are injured but at the same time we haven't seen them since their opening runs and there have been no entries for either.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                Mullins bingo could become a lot easier to predict if both Minella Cocooner and Classic Getaway don't make it to the Fez. We've heard nothing to say they are injured but at the same time we haven't seen them since their opening runs and there have been no entries for either.
                True, but it's not like they've both had no entries. Both were entered in the 3m G1 that GDM won.

                That was a tough debut race for them on heavy ground and that was only 36 days ago.

                Perhaps Willie took the view of giving them a break to race again in mid to late Jan?

                Does anything appear odd on the exchange? Be odd for both to be out or have setbacks and for both to still sit so prominently in the BANC market.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by charlie View Post

                  True, but it's not like they've both had no entries. Both were entered in the 3m G1 that GDM won.

                  That was a tough debut race for them on heavy ground and that was only 36 days ago.

                  Perhaps Willie took the view of giving them a break to race again in mid to late Jan?

                  Does anything appear odd on the exchange? Be odd for both to be out or have setbacks and for both to still sit so prominently in the BANC market.
                  Yep, you may well be right. That was a grueling race they both had. DRF entries will be revealing.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by charlie View Post

                    True, but it's not like they've both had no entries. Both were entered in the 3m G1 that GDM won.

                    That was a tough debut race for them on heavy ground and that was only 36 days ago.

                    Perhaps Willie took the view of giving them a break to race again in mid to late Jan?

                    Does anything appear odd on the exchange? Be odd for both to be out or have setbacks and for both to still sit so prominently in the BANC market.
                    This is the most logical view IMO. He needed a race for GDM, the others needed a longer break, why bother running them?

                    You obviously never know with Willie, but that makes the most sense to me anyway. Speaking as probably one of the few who would prefer GDM in the BANC there too.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Speedy17 View Post
                      My prediction for the Mullins brigade (not that it means anything!)

                      Arkle
                      Dysart Dynamo (Townend)
                      EL Fabiolo (Jacob)
                      Saint Roi (Walsh)

                      Turners
                      Appreciate It (Townend)
                      James Du Berlais (Jacob)
                      Kilcruit (Patrick)

                      Brown Advisory
                      Minella Cocooner (Townend/Danny)
                      Classic Getaway (Townend/Danny)
                      Bronn (Jacob)
                      Ramilies (Cooper/Patrick)

                      NH Chase
                      Gaillard Du Mesnil (Patrick)

                      I've probably forgotten a couple!
                      Forgot about Adamantly Chosen & Authorized Art, would love to see Adamantly Chosen in the Plate.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by charlie View Post
                        Perhaps Willie took the view of giving them a break to race again in mid to late Jan?
                        This perhaps lends credence to your Cocooner / BANC view - Willie’s had 2 BANC darts last year; GDM and Capodanno. Both took exactly the same route to the festival:

                        - 2m3f beginners chase at Naas on December 16th;
                        - 2m5f novices chase at Punchestown on 16th Jan;
                        - 2m5f Flogas at DRF;
                        - BANC.

                        I think the location of the beginners chase is irrelevant. Willie had to start his later last year due to the ground. But I think he might like that post Christmas run to Cheltenham with his 3 milers (which includes missing Christmas itself).

                        Also interesting how he had both follow the same path last year. Again this year, he was keen to pit arguably his two premier 3 milers against each other in a beginners chase.

                        I think Minella Cocooner and Classic Getaway will be next seen at the Punchestown Novices Chase.
                        Last edited by Exar Essay; 2 January 2023, 01:54 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Exar Essay View Post

                          This perhaps lends credence to your Cocooner / BANC view - Willie’s had 2 BANC darts last year; GDM and Capodanno. Both took exactly the same route to the festival:

                          - 2m3f beginners chase at Naas on December 16th;
                          - 2m5f novices chase at Punchestown on 16th Jan;
                          - 2m5f Flogas at DRF;
                          - BANC.

                          I think the location of the beginners chase is irrelevant. Willie had to start his later last year due to the ground. But I think he might like that post Christmas run to Cheltenham with his 3 milers (which includes missing Christmas itself).

                          Also interesting how he had both follow the same path last yea. Again this year, he was keen to pit arguably his two premier 3 milers against each other in a beginners chase this year.

                          I thinks Minella Cocooner and Classic Getaway will be next seen at the Punchestown Novices Chase.
                          I was wondering where they might go and you've done the hard worth for me!! Great post EE, thank you.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
                            Still the Turners for me for JDB. Not quite sure he’d want a proper slugfest over 3m up the hill.
                            I'm with you there JackieMoon33.

                            Reckon he could put the field under pressure with his slick jumping in the Turners - more so than in the Brown.

                            His time yesterday was more than 4 seconds quicker than Midnight River (carried 1lb less) in the 16-runner PP Chase.

                            TRW may not get his own way up front at the Fez so that's an unknown.

                            But, like you, I don't think he'd be so effective in a slog over 3 miles.


                            Last edited by nortonscoin200; 2 January 2023, 02:36 PM.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Speedy17 View Post
                              My prediction for the Mullins brigade (not that it means anything!)

                              Arkle
                              Dysart Dynamo (Townend)
                              EL Fabiolo (Jacob)
                              Saint Roi (Walsh)

                              Turners
                              Appreciate It (Townend)
                              James Du Berlais (Jacob)
                              Kilcruit (Patrick)

                              Brown Advisory
                              Minella Cocooner (Townend/Danny)
                              Classic Getaway (Townend/Danny)
                              Bronn (Jacob)
                              Ramilies (Cooper/Patrick)

                              NH Chase
                              Gaillard Du Mesnil (Patrick)

                              I've probably forgotten a couple!
                              Flame Bearer probably going Arkle to but not one I can see winning.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                                He's only got a 4/15 win rate as well which makes him easy to overlook for me.
                                Is 5/16 any better for you?

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