2023 Novice Chasers

[ComplyOrDie]

Does no one think there is a chance Appreciate It will be stepped up to the Turners?

Absolutely.

Him and Saint Roi the more obvious two to go out in trip, IMO.

[AaronLad]

Does no one think there is a chance Appreciate It will be stepped up to the Turners?

PTP background (up to 3m), bumper horse, so usually ends up a stayer, and in his novice campaign Mullins was quite open about the intention being to run him in the Ballymore until it became apparent that he was the best 2 miler by a long way.

He’s 8 now, he’s pretty much confirmed DD will go Arkle, and it feels like the stable’s money is down on ED. Couple this with Jonbon’s performances, will he really run Appreciate It here too?

I’m just not sure. Given the strength of the Arkle (and Mullins hand in it) and the weakness of the Turners (my opinion), I think it gives Mullins the chance to do what the original plan post bumper was and step him up. Assuming he got the trip, I think he’d have a huge chance in the Turners.

I think everyone on here is open to the idea of mullins stepping appreciate it up but i can only speak for myself, I'd actually argue he'd be the stable number 1. Being older as you point out would leave him possibly less likely to improvement whether that's at a new trip or the trip he's very much used to but i don't think he needs improvement at 2m. It's worth remembering he is the only supreme winner novice chasing this season. After a season where he met with a setback, he was set the lofty target of the champion hurdle as seasonal reappearance, he is obviously held in very high regard by both trainer and jockey. I think the only way he goes up in trip is if he's beaten at 2 miles, which is of course is possible but i'd like to think unlikely as a fan of appreciate it, not a backer. That's my view.

[darlojim]

Side by side comparisons with James Du Berlais and the 149 rated Scarlet and Dove are pretty interesting...

JDB was carrying 9lb more

From the 2nd last with a circuit to go..

3.6secs quicker to the 1 away from the stands.
4.35secs quicker to 7 out
5.97secs quicker to 5 out
7.2secs quicker to 2 out.
3.1secs quicker to the last.

All in all I'd say it was a very impressive pacey performance by James Du Berlais on his first run for 612 days. The mares have clawed back that deficit from 2 out but James was just freewheeling in the straight and also entitled to get a little tired after over racing for much of the race.

[Saxon Warrior]

I would think the Irish Arkle would sort out who goes where for Willie's horses.

I'd say at least two of Dysart Dynamo, El Fab and A.I. would run in that (be great if it was all three, and they all ran well) - that would show who the main Arkle hope will be, who a no2 could be and who could go to the Turners.

Add in that the other DRF Grade 1 NovCh is over 2M5F, then a couple of Turners hopes from Willie's could be in that too.

The
DRF Grade 1 early entries close on Weds 11th Jan, so next week we can look for clues, and see if any of El Fab, DD and A.I. get entries in both the 2M and 2M5F DRF races, and who just gets a 2M entry.

Then.....
The following week.....

On Tuesday 17th January
Early Entries close at midday for the
Arkle
Turners
BANC
NHC

So we get more info on horses range of targets then.

Plus if any are omitted (Sir.G? - maybe) swiftly followed by a Mullins update on those he's forced to confirm won't be ready for Cheltenham, or chasing.

[Jrow]

Appreciate It is a 9 year old now. Id be gobsmacked if Mullins sent him to the arkle. He would stand no chance in a champion chase the following year as a 10 year old, which would be the natural path to take if he did run in the arkle. Where as the turners would make sense, if he has stamina for a trip, the gold cup being a potential option there after at 10

[ComplyOrDie]

All in all I'd say it was a very impressive pacey performance by James Du Berlais on his first run for 612 days.

I must say, visually it looked like he was going a fair pace, though I hadn't seen the actual sectionals, so cheers for that

[DenmanSacre]

Appreciate It is a 9 year old now. Id be gobsmacked if Mullins sent him to the arkle. He would stand no chance in a champion chase the following year as a 10 year old, which would be the natural path to take if he did run in the arkle. Where as the turners would make sense, if he has stamina for a trip, the gold cup being a potential option there after at 10

Best not tell Sprinter Sacre, Special Tiara, Moscow Flyer etc they are too old at 10+ to win a Champion Chase.

[ComplyOrDie]

Best not tell Sprinter Sacre, Special Tiara, Moscow Flyer etc they are too old at 10+ to win a Champion Chase.

I'd prefer some Arkle examples tbh, but then you'd have to go all the way back to 1988 for a 9 year old winning an Arkle, and before that 1956. They are the only two 9 year old winners since the race began.

[DenmanSacre]

I'd prefer some Arkle examples tbh, but then you'd have to go all the way back to 1988 for a 9 year old winning an Arkle, and before that 1956. They are the only two 9 year old winners since the race began.

Probably a lot less runners at that age in the Arkle I would presume and we'd also need to look at their odds to see how they performed compared to expectation.

Personally I'd prefer AI to go up to the Turners but I would assume a staying on 2nd at the DRF over 2m would need to be the catalyst for them to go the Turners with him.

DD looked the best one on debut but it was a much slower time than Blue Lord and I'd need to see how he performs in a quicker race with his prior heart problem before saying he will be the definitive number 1 for the Arkle.

[Jrow]

Best not tell Sprinter Sacre, Special Tiara, Moscow Flyer etc they are too old at 10+ to win a Champion Chase.

Appreciate It will do well to be amongst that list. Hes 9 now and has run once over fences. He will be attempting to win a champion chase at the age of 10 in his first year out of novice company unlike any of the above

[OffTheBridle]

I'd prefer some Arkle examples tbh, but then you'd have to go all the way back to 1988 for a 9 year old winning an Arkle, and before that 1956. They are the only two 9 year old winners since the race began.

Captain Cee Bee seems to be a bit similar to appreciate it. Won the supreme, injured following season. AI made the Fez though the following season. Captain Cee Bee didnt and ran in the arkle at 9 years of age. Went off Fav and bleed from the nose finishing 8th.

[charlie]

Best not tell Sprinter Sacre, Special Tiara, Moscow Flyer etc they are too old at 10+ to win a Champion Chase.

Well said that man!

I'm going to put this age debate to bed once and for all because I'm tired repeatedly hearing that a 9 year old is less likely to win an Arkle.

28 horses (yes, 28, not 2 or 3) have won the QMCC aged 9 or older.

28 is not a small insignificant sample size, its 44% of all QMCC winners since 1959 being 9 years old or older, and that includes eleven 10 year olds, two 11 year olds and a 12 year old.

What about the Arkle? The first thing to look at is how many 9 year olds or older have actually tried to win an Arkle?

In the last 10 years, 87 horses have ran in the Arkle, 8 of which were 9 or older, which is only 9%.

6 of those had a starting SP of 25/1 and would fall in the 'no hope' category.

The notable flops are Rock On Ruby (5/1) who lost the race at the 3rd after having blundered very badly, and Overturn (7/2) who made a race ending mistake 3 out.

So in summary, a negligible number of 9+ year olds have tried to win an Arkle to say that they cant, and far far too many horses win the QMCC aged 9 or older to suggest that it makes it even slightly less likely.

Forgive me for stating the obvious, but a 9 year old running in an Arkle doesn't know its a novice and when all is said and done, this comes down to which horse can run and jump fastest around Cheltenham over 2m.

Every time Appreciate It being 9 comes up as a negative I am quoting this post. You are welcome to do the same

[Speedy17]

My prediction for the Mullins brigade (not that it means anything!)

Arkle
Dysart Dynamo (Townend)
EL Fabiolo (Jacob)
Saint Roi (Walsh)

Turners
Appreciate It (Townend)
James Du Berlais (Jacob)
Kilcruit (Patrick)

Brown Advisory
Minella Cocooner (Townend/Danny)
Classic Getaway (Townend/Danny)
Bronn (Jacob)
Ramilies (Cooper/Patrick)

NH Chase
Gaillard Du Mesnil (Patrick)

I've probably forgotten a couple!

[Quevega]

My prediction for the Mullins brigade (not that it means anything!)

Arkle
Dysart Dynamo (Townend)
EL Fabiolo (Jacob)
Saint Roi (Walsh)

Turners
Appreciate It (Townend)
James Du Berlais (Jacob)
Kilcruit (Patrick)

Brown Advisory
Minella Cocooner (Townend/Danny)
Classic Getaway (Townend/Danny)
Ramilies (Cooper/Patrick)

NH Chase
Gaillard Du Mesnil (Patrick)

I've probably forgotten a couple!

This is an interesting one.
Because Patrick being given the ride on GDM in the RSA would compensate somewhat.
Think Townend would get the option though, especially if he's won another grade 1 by then.
So swings and roundabouts really

[Speedy17]

This is an interesting one.
Because Patrick being given the ride on GDM in the RSA would compensate somewhat.
Think Townend would get the option though, especially if he's won another grade 1 by then.
So swings and roundabouts really

Yeah I mean the permutations are endless... If I'm Mullins though, one thing I am doing is, sending Minella Cocooner to the Stayers Hurdle, and he's a worthy NRNB shout.