2023 Novice Chasers

[Quevega]

I've had way too many Stella's this afternoon.... I'll get my coat... but I'll be back

[charlie]

I've had way too many Stella's this afternoon.... I'll get my coat... but I'll be back

Surely you should be ripping off the wife beater, not reaching for a coat

[Outlaw]

I was thinking in my head that THE REAL WHACKER had improved for his last run and I knew he had improved at home. I took my time with him and I saw this race and said we will go for it and make it a test of jumping. Looking at Monmiral you had to respect him as he is a Grade One winner, but this horse is progressing and is on the up. Hopefully he will be a Grade One winner soon. We will come back for the festival and enter him in a couple of them. We might even go for the Gold Cup! - Patrick Neville, trainer.

Love a bit of optimism from a smaller yard

[ComplyOrDie]

Thought James Du Berlais was very good today.

I wasn't expecting to say them words after the first couple of fences, where he had a very 'screwed' action of jumping them but thought he wasn't too bad after them two, and maybe just needed them to get into it a bit.

Wouldn't like to guess his end target and luckily don't have to. Just hope he gets there fit and well now.

Willie has got a hell of a job splitting his novices up this season. Would not be surprised one bit if some of them are held back for Aintree/Punchestown festivals given the amount he actually has available to him.

[ComplyOrDie]

Just re-watched Appreciate It, Dysart Dynamo and El Fabiolos Chase debuts, and for me Dysart Dynamo stood out as the most likely challenger to Jonbon.

I watched the Paul Townend short interviews afterwards as well and Dysart was the one that stood out also, with him saying he was 'magic'. He all but said El Fabiolo had plenty to learn, although will learn, but will it be in time for the Arkle? He was happy enough with Appreciate It bar the last fence, which happened to be the most competitive fence he had to face with Top Bandit up alongside, luckily enough Top Bandit also made a hash of it.

I think DD will be Willie's number one for the Arkle now, from what we've seen. I think the fact he went off as Willie's number one in last seasons Supreme is also a pointer, and will likely want to confirm he would have finished ahead of Jonbon in the Supreme by beating him in the Arkle, which I think is possible.

One big thing for me for DD this season over last season is how much more settled he was over fences first time out. He's already a horse we know has ability, if he can put it all together I think he's a horse that can not just win an Arkle but also a Champion Chase next season.

[HesTheOne]

Is Classic Getaway out for the season? Seen talk of it elsewhere not sure if I’ve missed that one

[Studfarm254]

Is Classic Getaway out for the season? Seen talk of it elsewhere not sure if I’ve missed that one

Still short enough for the RSA on the exchange so think he’s fine

[Istabraq]

Thought James Du Berlais was very good today.

I wasn’t initially impressed, ballooned the first, got tight at a couple but didn’t adjust well and went through a couple, but he had to do everything from the front and had no company for the entire 21f so I’m prepared to upgrade it from satisfactory to good,’and this was obviously his first outing for a long time, but I’m not going overboard.
As with most of these novices his next run will be a better guide of his true ability…

[AaronLad]

IF they make the festival there are 4 horses that I think have fairly definitive targets based on what we know now:

NHC - Ramillies (not quick enough for the BANC, its NHC or bust)
Browns - Classic Getaway (his breeding, run style, how he's been campaigned all screams stayer)
Turners - N/A
Arkle - Dysart Dynamo, Saint Roi (both just 2m speedsters, wouldn't get home over further, its boom or bust over 2m)

The 'floaters' are then:

NHC - GDM
Browns - GDM, JDB, MC
Turners - JDB, MC, AI, EF
Arkle - AI, EF

My take on it:

NHC - They have already decided GDM is their NHC horse. Ramillies may or may not go, but GDM comes here.
Browns - Now Minella Cocooner has settled over fences, I am convinced his future is over 3m, despite Willie saying Turners (based on keenness).
Turners - EF only comes here if he's beaten over 2m and/or his jumping doesn't improve. JDB comes here if EF cuts the mustard over 2m or goes up if he doesnt.
Arkle - The only way AI doesn't join DD and SR here is if he loses over 2m at the hands of EF. If so, EF goes here, AI goes up, JDB goes Turners.

Turns out I fucking love bingo.

I want it to end

Morning charlie, Happy new year. I agree with some of what you say here but would strongly disagree with you regarding saint roi and with JP having the current favourite for the arkle, I actually think he's most likely to step up in trip but not for that reason alone. I backed him for the turners after the novice chase he won @ xmas. After re-watching all his races I made some observations which would suggest he isn't just a 2m speedster. Firstly I'd point to the 3yr old hurdle race at the beginning of his career over 2m 2f at auteuil, going described as v.soft. Not a massive factor but having watched the race he wasn't stopping at the end, most of the other horses in that race now run over further, again not important but something to consider. I'd also say the only time mullins has tried him over further he was in need of the race and made several mistakes and wouldn't have won any race that day. looking back at his last few runs over hurdles it could certainly be argued that he was staying on best of all in last years champion hurdle, outpaced half a mile out, but kept on very well at the one pace? Then punchestown, they try something different but after setting the race up he's beaten by the speedier horses and I'd say he done well to finish just as close to honeysuckle as he did in the champion hurdle, It weren't like the rest of the field completely swallowed him up here. His final hurdle race showed just why a step up in trip is needed, looking outpaced when the race hots up, but keeping on in the battle for 3rd with shewearsitwell.
He's started his chasing career with 2 very different runs, one he tried making the running and got done for speed by the lighter weight fil dor was carrying. Then the second he was held up jumped well on the whole and looked much better at the finish being ridden this way, but on the hometurn when the race gets going he's only just managing to stay on the heels of visionarian and fil d'or (IMO). The top 2mile speedsters will burn him off and willie mullins will obviously know that.
Having read some of your posts in the past and how you mention breeding, I'm surprised you give Saint Roi zero chance over further, Boom or bust over 2miles?
As i mentioned in my diary Willies preference for coastal path progeny going chasing appears to be stepping them up in trip, my concern here would obviously be he ran franco de port in an arkle, with disastrous results!! I'm a little undecided on the dams side at the moment saint des saint is an interesting dam's sire and he could potentially have the first 4 home in the arkle this year Jonbon, Appreciate It, El fabiolo and saint Roi, one proud granddad!!!
Just thought I'd give you the view of someone who's backed saint roi for the turners

[charlie]

Morning charlie, Happy new year. I agree with some of what you say here but would strongly disagree with you regarding saint roi and with JP having the current favourite for the arkle, I actually think he's most likely to step up in trip but not for that reason alone. I backed him for the turners after the novice chase he won @ xmas. After re-watching all his races I made some observations which would suggest he isn't just a 2m speedster. Firstly I'd point to the 3yr old hurdle race at the beginning of his career over 2m 2f at auteuil, going described as v.soft. Not a massive factor but having watched the race he wasn't stopping at the end, most of the other horses in that race now run over further, again not important but something to consider. I'd also say the only time mullins has tried him over further he was in need of the race and made several mistakes and wouldn't have won any race that day. looking back at his last few runs over hurdles it could certainly be argued that he was staying on best of all in last years champion hurdle, outpaced half a mile out, but kept on very well at the one pace? Then punchestown, they try something different but after setting the race up he's beaten by the speedier horses and I'd say he done well to finish just as close to honeysuckle as he did in the champion hurdle, It weren't like the rest of the field completely swallowed him up here. His final hurdle race showed just why a step up in trip is needed, looking outpaced when the race hots up, but keeping on in the battle for 3rd with shewearsitwell.
He's started his chasing career with 2 very different runs, one he tried making the running and got done for speed by the lighter fil dor. Then the second he was held up jumped well on the whole and looked much better at the finish being ridden this way, but on the hometurn when the race gets going he's only just managing to stay on the heels of visionarian and fil d'or (IMO). The top 2mile speedsters will burn him off and willie mullins will obviously know that.
Having read some of your posts in the past and how you mention breeding, I'm surprised you give Saint Roi zero chance over further, Boom or bust over 2miles?
As i mentioned in my diary Willies preference for coastal path progeny going chasing is certainly stepping them up in trip, my concern here would obviously be he ran franco de port in an arkle, with disastrous results!! I'm a little undecided on the dams side at the moment saint des saint is an interesting dam's sire and he could potentially have the first 4 home in the arkle this year Jonbon, Appreciate It, El fabiolo and saint Roi, one proud granddad!!!
Just thought I'd give you the view of someone who's backed saint roi for the turners

HNY AaronLad - brilliant post.

I'm going to watch his races back this morning but you've made a really strong, detailed case on a step up benefitting him, I could be wrong. I certainly feel wrong!!

I do mention breeding a lot and you're right, he would handle further on breeding, I suppose the niggle is why hasn't Willie stepped him up? He's been with the yard since 2018 and raced 13 times out of 14 races over the minimum trip. Your case re stepping up is really sock solid, but they aren't connecting those dots are they?

It's definitely fair to add the word 'yet'. Breeding, strength and depth of Willies 2 milers, the way he races and the fact he hasn't set the world alight over 2m (ran well in defeat) would all be in the plus column for the Turners, thats for sure.

My only other point of observation and its minor cause you've gone into tons of detail which is great, is Saint Roi is very small and I'd be surprised if Fil Dor was lighter.

[AaronLad]

HNY AaronLad - brilliant post.

I'm going to watch his races back this morning but you've made a really strong, detailed case on a step up benefitting him, I could be wrong. I certainly feel wrong!!

I do mention breeding a lot and you're right, he would handle further on breeding, I suppose the niggle is why hasn't Willie stepped him up? He's been with the yard since 2018 and raced 13 times out of 14 races over the minimum trip. Your case re stepping up is really sock solid, but they aren't connecting those dots are they?

It's definitely fair to add the word 'yet'. Breeding, strength and depth of Willies 2 milers, the way he races and the fact he hasn't set the world alight over 2m (ran well in defeat) would all be in the plus column for the Turners, thats for sure.

My only other point of observation and its minor cause you've gone into tons of detail which is great, is Saint Roi is very small and I'd be surprised if Fil Dor was lighter.

I'm hoping he'll lose in the irish arkle and be stepped up in trip on the new course for the turners, where he performed so well when winning the county hurdle that's my own personal feeling. sorry about the lighter weight part, you've misunderstood what i was saying and have edited my original post, I meant fil d'or was carrying less weight rather than being the lighter horse.
It'll be interesting to see how he splits his novice chasers and we can go around in circles for the next couple of months, and we will but thought it was important you heard my case for him stepping up to the turners as it's something I could see you was dismissing too easily.

[charlie]

I'm hoping he'll lose in the irish arkle and be stepped up in trip on the new course for the turners, where he performed so well when winning the county hurdle that's my own personal feeling. sorry about the lighter weight part, you've misunderstood what i was saying and have edited my original post, I meant fil d'or was carrying less weight rather than being the lighter horse.
It'll be interesting to see how he splits his novice chasers and we can go around in circles for the next couple of months, and we will but thought it was important you heard my case for him stepping up to the turners as it's something I could see you was dismissing too easily.

I was definitely dismissing him going up too easily, for sure. I've just watched his latest win back and all his best work was done late, so stepping up could very well bring about improvement. That wasn't my only takeaway from the race though - it was a pretty weak Grade 1 wasn't it. You'd think Willie would have quite a few horses who would have no problem beating Visionarian more than 2L, and SR was driven out to do it. 14/1 NRNB is not a bad price though and one I'll give some thought to, for sure.

[AaronLad]

I was definitely dismissing him going up too easily, for sure. I've just watched his latest win back and all his best work was done late, so stepping up could very well bring about improvement. That wasn't my only takeaway from the race though - it was a pretty weak Grade 1 wasn't it. You'd think Willie would have quite a few horses who would have no problem beating Visionarian more than 2L, and SR was driven out to do it. 14/1 NRNB is not a bad price though and one I'll give some thought to, for sure.

Yeah i completely agree about it being a weak grade 1 and I'm sure hoping he's got at least 3 that would've done that to visionarian. When thinking about where the improvement could come from watch his county hurdle run again, on the new course over 2m 1f only 3f short of the turners distance not the biggest step up in distance. Anyway enjoy your Bank holiday and I hope I've given you some New year food for thought.

[TCH29]

Does no one think there is a chance Appreciate It will be stepped up to the Turners?

PTP background (up to 3m), bumper horse, so usually ends up a stayer, and in his novice campaign Mullins was quite open about the intention being to run him in the Ballymore until it became apparent that he was the best 2 miler by a long way.

He’s 8 now, he’s pretty much confirmed DD will go Arkle, and it feels like the stable’s money is down on ED. Couple this with Jonbon’s performances, will he really run Appreciate It here too?

I’m just not sure. Given the strength of the Arkle (and Mullins hand in it) and the weakness of the Turners (my opinion), I think it gives Mullins the chance to do what the original plan post bumper was and step him up. Assuming he got the trip, I think he’d have a huge chance in the Turners.

[DenmanSacre]

Does no one think there is a chance Appreciate It will be stepped up to the Turners?

PTP background (up to 3m), bumper horse, so usually ends up a stayer, and in his novice campaign Mullins was quite open about the intention being to run him in the Ballymore until it became apparent that he was the best 2 miler by a long way.

He’s 8 now, he’s pretty much confirmed DD will go Arkle, and it feels like the stable’s money is down on ED. Couple this with Jonbon’s performances, will he really run Appreciate It here too?

I’m just not sure. Given the strength of the Arkle (and Mullins hand in it) and the weakness of the Turners (my opinion), I think it gives Mullins the chance to do what the original plan post bumper was and step him up. Assuming he got the trip, I think he’d have a huge chance in the Turners.

Until the others prove it, Appreciate It is their number one prospect and the rest will move to accommodate him. El Fabiolo could move up from previous comments and likely be equally as effective at that distance as 2 miles. We will know more after the DRF if we get most of Mullins novices there and they can sort themselves out on the track.