2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Irish Rugby]

Diverge's win was more than a week ago. Ruby flagging it up now causes the price collapse. Why not, it's another large distance Mullins maiden winner. What's not to lose. Get on before the price collapses even more!! Join the train now, or miss out!!

When you factor in the issues around other trainers keeping their distance to avoid a hefty handicap mark, plus the bookmakers pricing every maiden winner by high profile trainers as they may be on the day, in a grade 1 that ends up with 10-12 runners, and so it becomes.

No thanks.

Out of interest, will some of you making a book guys, or girls, want to get him now on board, for the sake of your book, or do you take a clinical view on what we've seen this far?

[Exar Essay]

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Out of interest, will some of you making a book guys, or girls, want to get him now on board, for the sake of your book, or do you take a clinical view on what we've seen this far?

Ive had to add him now. It’s not a year where there are absolute standouts so a perceived outsider or stable third string could win it.

As you say, the price could collapse further. B365 BOG makes this a pretty safe bet. I really didn’t want to add him though.

[Benjy23]

Ive had to add him now. It’s not a year where there are absolute standouts so a perceived outsider or stable third string could win it.

As you say, the price could collapse further. B365 BOG makes this a pretty safe bet. I really didn’t want to add him though.

Don't then. There's been plenty of years when there's been no standout and a slightly lesser winner. But almost never with that sort of profile. I don't really get why you've had to?

[Exar Essay]

Don't then. There's been plenty of years when there's been no standout and a slightly lesser winner. But almost never with that sort of profile. I don't really get why you've had to?

Because I’m making a book. I was responding specifically to IR’s question. It would be a very brave a call to omit a Mullins runner when making a book.

If there’s a chance, no matter how small, I need to cover the horse.

[Benjy23]

Because I’m making a book. I was responding specifically to IR’s question. It would be a very brave a call to omit a Mullins runner when making a book.

If there’s a chance, no matter how small, I need to cover the horse.

Fair play. Hope you got on before the price cuts. Doubt he'll go off (much) shorter than his current price to be honest, unless something mad happens. 11s with Paddy's is outrageous like, however weak this looks.

Think I'd almost rather back one of the English lot at the prices

Genuine question: any history of a Mullins third string winning the Supreme?

[Muswell]

Ebaziyan at 40/1? Edit - was his only runner

[Exar Essay]

Fair play. Hope you got on before the price cuts. Doubt he'll go off (much) shorter than his current price to be honest, unless something mad happens. 11s with Paddy's is outrageous like, however weak this looks.

Think I'd almost rather back one of the English lot at the prices

Genuine question: any history of a Mullins third string winning the Supreme?

There’s a question. Don’t think so.

My thinking is that Ruby has already put him forward. People will be scrabbling for a ‘price’ in the Supreme as it’s so open. This lad could be all the rage in the previews and go off 8/1.

I only got on at 16s but am protected from a price rise by BOG so happy enough. I’ve only bet him enough to ensure a small win as he’s not my idea of the winner.

[Quevega]

Ebaziyan at 40/1?

Was his only runner that day though.
Remember it well.

[Benjy23]

Aye, think you're right in that Ruby (or others with connections to Mullins) going round tipping him at previews is the best chance of him being backed.

Ebaziyan a nice shout to be fair. Was Mullins only runner but was winning on the back of a Maiden hurdle, so about as close as we're going to get I'd imagine. 16 years ago as well. Maybe 16s is the right price

[Muswell]

Was his only runner that day though.
Remember it well.

coming in to a very quiet reception! (Bar my missus who had backed)

[That Horse]

Genuine question: any history of a Mullins third string winning the Supreme?

Don't know about third string but wasn't Champagne Fever double figures until jockey bookings came out and Ruby chose him over the Paul Nicholls option? I know that's not quite the same scenario as you've asked about but I guess my point is we don't yet know the scenario a couple of days out from the race. It could be Facile Vega and Diverge are the only two Mullins horses in the race (unlikely), in which case Diverge will probably be single figures, then if Townend chose him, he'd crash in price.
Alternatively, Diverge may not even come over and people on at NRNB will get their money back.

Agree though it is silly season when all a Mullins horse has to do is fart and it causes a price crash

[That Horse]

Also, not same race but The Nice Guy was possibly third string?

[Benjy23]

Don't know about third string but wasn't Champagne Fever double figures until jockey bookings came out and Ruby chose him over the Paul Nicholls option? I know that's not quite the same scenario as you've asked about but I guess my point is we don't yet know the scenario a couple of days out from the race. It could be Facile Vega and Diverge are the only two Mullins horses in the race (unlikely), in which case Diverge will probably be single figures, then if Townend chose him, he'd crash in price.
Alternatively, Diverge may not even come over and people on at NRNB will get their money back.

Agree though it is silly season when all a Mullins horse has to do is fart and it causes a price crash

Aye, my 'mad' scenario was along the lines of Townend ditching Facile Vega and IET to ride Diverge... I think I'd want 16s on that happening though to be honest. Nevermind for him to go on and win the race afterwards.

Also, not same race but The Nice Guy was possibly third string?

The AB is a much more likely race to throw up a shock winner than the Supreme. I've not checked but I imagine the average SP of the winner between the 2 races in the last 10 years or so is hugely different.

[Rooster Booster]

This convo is making me feel a little relieved I don’t make a book. On the surface It feels so much less stressful only backing horses you fancy. It sounds like folks feel obliged to back a horse or worse still scared not to. Is it really enjoyable coz I wouldn’t enjoy feeling obliged to back diverge or scared not to. Not a judgement...a genuine question.

it also feels like the firms have got wise to the art of book building as they see how it creates false demand which in turn provides opportunity for firms to offer less value.

I am not judging, I get how de risking has its appeal, and I get how it is an art form in its own right, but is it enjoyable ?

[That Horse]

I am not judging, I get how de risking has its appeal, and I get how it is an art form in its own right, but is it enjoyable ?

If someone is good at it, I'm sure they find it enjoyable but it sounds like an awful amount of time and effort, and seems to need an ear to the ground 24/7 to keep on top of cashout, what's going on on the exchanges, etc.

I found keeping a diary this year made it less enjoyable for me, I just want to look at all the lovely horsies