2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Exar Essay]

Yes my memory used to be invincible but I’ve started to write shit down now....not that I can always remember where I’ve written it

You've started keeping a diary of Lobos's posts, haven't you

[Rooster Booster]

You've started keeping a diary of Lobos's posts, haven't you

I don’t have enough paper for that

[archie]

I don’t have enough paper for that

Tesco sell it at 6 large rolls of 3 ply for ?3.50.

[Rooster Booster]

Tesco sell it at 6 large rolls of 3 ply for ?3.50.

He’s a legend isn’t he

[Odin]

To be fair his jumping lto looked a lot better than it was at Cheltenham. The going right was very little to my eyes.

I know it was on a right handed track so the doubt would be going left handed, would the tendency be more pronounced? Even when he was going up the straight with the tempo increased to put the race to bed it was marginally to the right imo.

Problem for me is that it was marginally right while turning right, which extends to reasonably right when going straight and then L'Homme Press at Kempton levels of out there (obviously in reverse) when turning left as they do at Cheltenham for a couple of the hurdles.

It's not that I don't think he can win at Cheltenham, he's obviously got an engine even though I disagree with his RPR at Tramore (and expect I'll disagree with his RPR at Clonmel based on what others - e.g. ADV/JDB - have been given in this type of race, hopefully they'll prove me wrong though); I just think he's much better suited to Punchestown and I'll likely have a decent go at him there depending on the opposition. The comments post-race also suggest they think he prefers to go right handed.


Edit: In terms of Tuesday's RPR, I suspect they will rate the race around Maidenstreetprince, who has a peak RPR LTO of 125, that would have Blue Sari at 133ish and Gaelic Warrior around 148 so maybe he'll get a similar rating to last time for sectional/ease of winning. Personal opinion is that that is likely 5-10lb too high on what he did and how much others were trying, but there's no doubt to me he's got a 150, maybe even 160 performance in him going right handed. Could just be talking out of my arse but at least I've done it before they've put the RPR out there.

[Rooster Booster]

Problem for me is that it was marginally right while turning right, which extends to reasonably right when going straight and then L'Homme Press at Kempton levels of out there (obviously in reverse) when turning left as they do at Cheltenham for a couple of the hurdles.

It's not that I don't think he can win at Cheltenham, he's obviously got an engine even though I disagree with his RPR at Tramore (and expect I'll disagree with his RPR at Clonmel based on what others - e.g. ADV/JDB - have been given in this type of race, hopefully they'll prove me wrong though); I just think he's much better suited to Punchestown and I'll likely have a decent go at him there depending on the opposition. The comments post-race also suggest they think he prefers to go right handed.


Edit: In terms of Tuesday's RPR, I suspect they will rate the race around Maidenstreetprince, who has a peak RPR LTO of 125, that would have Blue Sari at 133ish and Gaelic Warrior around 148 so maybe he'll get a similar rating to last time for sectional/ease of winning. Personal opinion is that that is likely 5-10lb too high on what he did and how much others were trying, but there's no doubt to me he's got a 150, maybe even 160 performance in him going right handed. Could just be talking out of my arse but at least I've done it before they've put the RPR out there.

Maybe hover over that in running button in case he jumps the first two straighter than you expect

[Odin]

Maybe hover over that in running button in case he jumps the first two straighter than you expect

Not sure how tongue in cheek that was, but actually quite like it as an idea! Problem is, he'll be in front and half of a short enough SP by then no doubt

[Rooster Booster]

Not sure how tongue in cheek that was, but actually quite like it as an idea! Problem is, he'll be in front and half of a short enough SP by then no doubt

Was totally genuine....I think he is a very good horse and I’m taking the risk on his jumping but can understand why others aren’t...but I thought it might be a good compromise for you.

[Craigy14]

Was totally genuine....I think he is a very good horse and I’m taking the risk on his jumping but can understand why others aren’t...but I thought it might be a good compromise for you.

My main reason for cashing was more target being pretty unclear with Gaelic Warrior. Also I much prefer Impaire for the Ballymore at this stage. He does most things right for a Ballymore sort and has that turn of foot as well as some pretty neat hurdling.

I may back him depending where he ends up. Suppose his next target will have an impact on where he may likely end up, if he ends up, at the festival.

[Winging The Last]

To me I'm starting to think Gaelic Warrior is looking more likely that he will run in the supreme from what I'm seeing and hearing. And there are a few key things that could be influencing this. (Just to let you know I haven't backed him for the Supreme and only for the Ballymore and would not see him winning the Supreme.)

The first reason is that to me the best two novice hurdlers over 2m and 2.5m in Willies yard and therefore the preferred mounts of Townsend in the Supreme and Ballymore are FV and IEP respectively, and therefore he isn't fighting for the horse to go either way. This in turn will lead to Danny most likely taking the ride on Gaelic if he goes to Cheltenham in either race (which is key to point two).

The second point, which is very important to how I see it is that from the last race FV does much better off a strong pace where he doesn't have to lead and then he will come swinging round the turn at Cheltenham and power up the hill (he doesn't necessarily need it but I more effective that way). The best way for him to have that pace is for Willie to provide that from his own yard. Step forward Gaelic Warrior with the best front riding Jockey around onboard. GW is a pure front runner and would be perfect to bowl out ahead in the Supreme. Willie will then have GW who could win from the front and FV with the race to his liking in behind.

Having GW in the Supreme would suit the running styles of both GW and FV. Which would also still leave Willie and Paul with one of, if not the favorite by race day for the Ballymore in IEP

[Lobos]

Supreme looks fav to me as well. Ricci loves a Supreme horse doesn't he and the only other one he has is QDP who looks more a Stayer than G Warrior. Don't think either will trouble Vega or Passe though.

[ComplyOrDie]

Gaelic Warrior RPR 155 He's trounced Facile Vega, he might as well not turn up

[AaronLad]

155 rpr for gaelic warrior....... That's a shocking over rating.

The munster hurdle changed from 2m3f in the previous seasons, i think they've rated him against times from previous years and forgotten it was a shorter race

[Black Dog]

155 rpr for gaelic warrior....... That's a shocking over rating.

The munster hurdle changed from 2m3f in the previous seasons, i think they've rated him against times from previous years and forgotten it was a shorter race

Should be renamed the Monster Hurdle

[Lobos]

Gaelic Warrior RPR 155 He's trounced Facile Vega, he might as well not turn up

Exactly. I hope Willie doesn't take any notice of these ludicrous figures or else he'll demote Vega to the Albert