2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Quevega]

That price with Cashout was mad, wasn’t it?

The Exchange even put up a bit at 80s last Thursday, and then went 50s after his entry this week, and 40s in running/after he won yesterday.

How many horses do they think are better than him and FDC for the Bartlett? - they’re both running in the right races, and performing to decent ratings.
I suppose if Willie trained them theyd have been much shorter, at all times.

Yeah I saw the 80's but had already gone with hills boosted to 37-1.
I actually think the bartlett looks wide open and have 8 backed, and 2 free rolls on the exchange.
And was still trying to back another yesterday on the exchange.

A couple on there were NRNB that won't run.
And there are doubts on 2 or 3 others so it's not as scattergun as it looks.
However, there are at least another 6 that if they turned up I'd be wary of and haven't backed.

Lobos is right.

It's a handicap in disguise.

[Quevega]

Nobody can be taking anything literally from GW win today surely ?
nothing has wanted to finish in the same parish as the winner and to highlight that compare it to the Mares maiden hurdle first up.

They've gone 20L slower the first 6f to the line(GW prob didn't want to set a pace but equally knew nothing would)
They've gone slower circa 15L on circuit, slower from 3 out(GW did take them wide mind) and then matched from 2 out. Neither of them asked for much effort and I'm not knocking either winners ability as nobody knows what their ceilings are but those in behind of GW today if replicating efforts in that mares race would of been bunching up with some pretty modest maidens in behind Night & Day.

I don't think he's shown anything to suggest the rating he'd run off in the betfair would make him very competitive to date imo, chuck in the RH jilts he'd have to be a monster to put up the effort required to claim that prize all things considered.

I noticed the overall time was not great in comparison to the other races, a good card for time comparisons really.
Waiting on the RPR being out of sync again

Having said that, I do think he may have done enough to be a possible supreme No1 if Vega drops out.
Meaning Impaire more likely for the ballymore.
Very tricky now with these two horses in particular. Both look to have chances but very difficult to say which race they'll end up in for sure.
If they both go ballymore, then what about champ kiely ?
Also neither are likely to run in Dublin so his dublin runners may stake a claim also.

[Odin]

Post-race quote on Racing Post for Gaelic yesterday:

GAELIC WARRIOR was quite fresh in himself at the start but he was grand after that. He's a lovely horse, it was hard work out there and he is quite hard on himself. He prefers to go right handed - Paul Townend, rider.

I wonder if his big day will be at Punchestown?

[Saxon Warrior]

Fantastic reply Quevega

I really appreciate the explanations of why you backed them, and you've got half a dozen excellent darts to throw at Festival races.

Plus maybe a few more when the DRF decs and WTAF prices firm up, and they go on to win at Leopardstown.

[JamieSensible]

Does anybody have any knowledge regarding the wellbeing of Arctic Bresil?

I'm looking to cash out my small stakes multiples, after the poor tolworth run.

[Lobos]

Post-race quote on Racing Post for Gaelic yesterday:

GAELIC WARRIOR was quite fresh in himself at the start but he was grand after that. He's a lovely horse, it was hard work out there and he is quite hard on himself. He prefers to go right handed - Paul Townend, rider.

I wonder if his big day will be at Punchestown?

Probably. IMO It'll be difficult for him to win any race at Cheltenham given his RH bias.

[That Horse]

Yeah I saw the 80's but had already gone with hills boosted to 37-1.
I actually think the bartlett looks wide open and have 8 backed, and 2 free rolls on the exchange.
And was still trying to back another yesterday on the exchange.

A couple on there were NRNB that won't run.
And there are doubts on 2 or 3 others so it's not as scattergun as it looks.
However, there are at least another 6 that if they turned up I'd be wary of and haven't backed.

Lobos is right.

It's a handicap in disguise.

It's the one race where I lack discipline in, and think nothing of throwing more money away.
Current bets;
Tag Man
Sandor Clegane
Hidden Valley Lake
Favori de Champdou
Dawn Rising
Letsbeclearaboutit
Indiana Dream

Still interested in;
Grangeclare West
Grey Dawning
Affordale Fury
Good Land (I've held back given the info on here that he is Ballymore bound)
American Mike

I guess the only thing stopping me from backing more is the thought even if I've backed the winner I'd have spent the fucking winnings backing all the other losers.

[Quevega]

It's the one race where I lack discipline in, and think nothing of throwing more money away.
Current bets;
Tag Man
Sandor Clegane
Hidden Valley Lake
Favori de Champdou
Dawn Rising
Letsbeclearaboutit
Indiana Dream

Still interested in;
Grangeclare West
Grey Dawning
Affordale Fury
Good Land (I've held back given the info on here that he is Ballymore bound)
American Mike

I guess the only thing stopping me from backing more is the thought even if I've backed the winner I'd have spent the fucking winnings backing all the other losers.

Same here.
Just got a combination of different horses

couple you've missed
Corbett's cross
We'veallbeencaught.

There's loads more too.

[Lobos]

Santonito as well maybe Q . Noticed he's entered at Thurles over nearly 3 miles.

[Outlaw]

Surprised given the knowledge of some on here with PTP that not been much mention(unless I've missed it) of Johnnywho who was due out this week prior to the cold snap. Not taken the Ptp win literally(2nd not seen but also with Jonjo,3rd Hermes Allen) but this sort of horse would usually get a mention with what the 3rd has gone on to do. Anyone know much about him as minimal about him in Jonjo stable tour.

[Exar Essay]

Decent drift about Impaire Et Passe for the Supreme on the exchange. Decision made?

[riccirich]

Surprised given the knowledge of some on here with PTP that not been much mention(unless I've missed it) of Johnnywho who was due out this week prior to the cold snap. Not taken the Ptp win literally(2nd not seen but also with Jonjo,3rd Hermes Allen) but this sort of horse would usually get a mention with what the 3rd has gone on to do. Anyone know much about him as minimal about him in Jonjo stable tour.

I’ve seen him mentioned a few times, I’m sure he would have been mentioned more if he wasn’t with jonjo

[Lobos]

Decent drift about Impaire Et Passe for the Supreme on the exchange. Decision made?

Not until after DRF.

[ComplyOrDie]

Decent drift about Impaire Et Passe for the Supreme on the exchange. Decision made?

No chance, I'm afraid.

The DRF could be a disaster for Willie. That said, I wouldn't be convinced he'd chuck Impaire Et Passe in the Supreme anyway but who knows!

I believe he has different options for the Supreme even if, god forbid, anything were to happen to FV.

[PresentingPercy]

Decent drift about Impaire Et Passe for the Supreme on the exchange. Decision made?

I think Munir was in Mullins yard today checking up on a few of their horses, posted a video on his twitter of El Fabiolo on the gallops. Might be no accident the price drifted..

https://twitter.com/simon_munir/status/1615766626409791499?t=oQCpNFWFTv-EhC_sp7-yYA&s=19