2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Brooksie]

Interesting that PT has been jocked up for the rest of the card apart from the Lawlors. Would suggest he's having a hard time choosing between Champ Kiely and GW. If that's the case then Irish Point got to go close if seeing out the extra 4f. The way I see the race is CK running too keen finishing a held 3rd with GW and Irish Point fighting out a close finish.

[Quevega]

5 runs in total, including France, so I do wonder what they are planning. Quevega mentioned the Martin Pipe I think, and I could well see it, but then again any handicap he can run in must be an option. Wouldn't want to guess right now.

I'm surprised he's a 4/1 poke for any race still, tbh.

I was messing mainly.
And pointing out that he is rated 134 in IRE and is FAV for the County and pipe with Hills.
Important to note as many were assuming he's a serious contender for Grade 1's.
I doubt I'd back him at those short prices again in a handicap.
There is still a chance he goes for a Grade 1 in March, he just needs to show Willie he's good enough.

[DenmanSacre]

Interesting that PT has been jocked up for the rest of the card apart from the Lawlors. Would suggest he's having a hard time choosing between Champ Kiely and GW. If that's the case then Irish Point got to go close if seeing out the extra 4f. The way I see the race is CK running too keen finishing a held 3rd with GW and Irish Point fighting out a close finish.

Hes jocked up on GW. Danny on CK.

[ComplyOrDie]

I was messing mainly.
And pointing out that he is rated 134 in IRE and is FAV for the County and pipe with Hills.
Important to note as many were assuming he's a serious contender for Grade 1's.
I doubt I'd back him at those short prices again in a handicap.
There is still a chance he goes for a Grade 1 in March, he just needs to show Willie he's good enough.

Yeah, unfortunately Willie, nor anyone else found out anything from his first run this season other than that he's alive.

It was against really poor opposition and going right handed. Not ideal.

[Quevega]

Thanks for this, CoD. My interpretation of that data is that the declarations today (and lack of declaration for Gaelic) mean very little. Grangeclare West could still go in either race. The winner of Lawlor’s doesn’t have a great follow up record, and Gaelic Warrior could still go anywhere.

I still think Gaelic will end up in the Ballymore and Grangeclare in the Spud race, but I’m probably wrong.

He'll be in the box seat for the Ballymore and Bartlett, and I think Willie will just see what else emerges from his team and the opposition.
I'd be surprised if he commits to a race after the race if he's won.
but he might. Especially if the manner of victory dictates to him.

[Brooksie]

Hes jocked up on GW. Danny on CK.

thanks for the heads up. What site you find that out? Racing Post a bit slow it seems.

[DenmanSacre]

https://status.hri-ras.ie/race-meetings.aspx

Click on Rider Info and it gives you updated information.

[JackieMoon33]

Glad TCB wasn't declared. Let him go to the DRF or to Clonmel before the Albert Bartlett.

Interesting race with a mix of stayers vs speedsters.

I wouldn't have said Irish Point was crying out for this trip but is the choice for Jack - if he stays he will take some beating.

Imagine again I wouldn't have said needs this trip and looks a handicap job to me now.

Inothewaurthinkin is the interesting one. Does Cromwell/JP want him running well or will he be a handicap job as well?

I'm sure the market beforehand will tell us a lot.

Agree on Irish Point and Imagine. I’ve said a few times since his entry in this that I didn’t think Irish Point needed a step up. It could be they’re looking at options as they don’t feel they can over turn the form with MN. Also agree Imagine now needs to be on the handicap list. I had higher hopes for him preseason but that’s likely his level now.

[ComplyOrDie]

Impose Toi absolutely friendless today, 1/2 out to 5/2, incredible. He's actually a backable price now, should the market have got it wrong!

[Lobos]

Impose Toi absolutely friendless today, 1/2 out to 5/2, incredible. He's actually a backable price now, should the market have got it wrong!

Ran a great race seeing as he looked a bloody terrible ride most of the way. Pulled more than me and that's going some. Definitely doesn't want two miles though. Probably skip Cheltenham I'd say. Big baby.

[Lobos]

Loads of Blue for G West in Ballymore. Gaelic pushed out . Both as you would expect.

[Exar Essay]

Ahead of potential Win Today bets, I thought I'd look at where previous winners have ended up. In the last 10 years, all 10 Lawlors winners have gone on to run at Cheltenham with no preferred target, but with the supreme being least likely. Interestingly, winners who went on to run in the Bartlett have not faired well at all.

• Supreme: 1 runner - 13
• Ballymore: 5 runners - 1, 1, PU, 3, 11
• Albert Bartlett: 4 runners - PU, F, 6, PU

And over the last 20 editions:

• Supreme: 1runner - 13
• Ballymore: 6 runners - 1, 1, PU, 3, 11, 3
• Albert Bartlett: 7 runners - PU, F, 6, PU, 17, PU, PU
• No run at Cheltenham x 6

[archie]

Figures probably tilted when the Lawlors was upgraded to a G2 in 2005 and a G1 in 2015 thereby attracting a better class of runner, more likely to go to Cheltenham.

[Quevega]

Figures probably tilted when the Lawlors was upgraded to a G2 in 2005 and a G1 in 2015 thereby attracting a better class of runner, more likely to go to Cheltenham.

Yeah, and the timings in the calendar and distances of the other races now at Dublin festival will also have had an impact. Both ways I suppose.
It's miles better than the calender over here that's for sure, for producing Novice winners at the festival.

[ComplyOrDie]

I couldn't decide on Impaire Et Passe (IEP), however I have now made a decision and I do think he could be Ballymore bound, just to muddy the waters further.

Willie rarely, if ever, drops a horse back down to the Supreme when starting out over 2m3f, and the way IEP kicked clear (albeit from a likely average field) showed a turn of foot most commonly associated with the Ballymore.

I was very much in favour of Gaelic Warrior being Willies Ballymore horse, though this was mostly through reading many opinions on here about him, but I've had to have a change of mind and heart. I'm hoping IEP goes down the Gaillard Du Mesnil route of the 2m6f race at the DRF next time before heading to the Ballymore where there won't be a Bob Olinger waiting for him this time.

I still think Grangeclare West goes for the Bartlett, regardless of the result in the Lawlor's of Naas.