2023 Novice Hurdlers

[CJW]

Last six winners for willie in the lawlors, 2 ran in the ballymore, 1 winner.

[Lobos]

Does Ricci need a Supreme horse? It might surprise a few but he's not had a runner in the race for the last 4 festivals. QDP doesn't look like one now and Gaelic Warrior, as noted by others, could still be a handicap job.

Parmenion the back up for Facile Vega, I'd say now.

As Warrior is entered up over 2m on the 12th then perhaps he's Willies County horse. That'll be 3 hurdle runs, all over the minimum. He's run them and won with them in the County before off top weight.

[ComplyOrDie]

Last six winners for willie in the lawlors, 2 ran in the ballymore, 1 winner.

Was just putting together some research on this and found the following:

Winners for Willie Mullins in the Lawlors or Naas and then their respective Cheltenham runs:

Homer Wells - No run at the festival
Mikael D'Haguenet - Won Ballymore
Gagewell Flyer - PU Albert Bartlett
Briar Hill - Fell in Albert Bartlett when still travelling well
McKinley - Well beat in the Martin Pipe
Bellshill - Well beat in the Supreme
Next Destination - 3rd Ballymore

Other noted runners that didn't win the Lawlors of Naas but went on to run at the festival:

Champagne Fever - 3rd in LoN (had an infection) - Won Supreme
Tarcagua - 2nd in LoN - PU Albert Bartlett
Getareason - 3rd in LoN - Well beat in the Martin Pipe
Elixir D'Ainay -2nd in LoN - Fell in Supreme when still travelling well
Blue Lord - 2nd in LoN - Fell in Supreme when well held 2nd
Whatdeawant - 5th in LoN - 3rd in Bally but well held


Only two 7 year old winners for Willie Mullins in the race, Homer Well who never ran at the festival that season and Gagewell Flyer who ran in the Albert Bartlett.

[Black Dog]

Six,if you add on his French races Lobos

[ComplyOrDie]

As Warrior is entered up over 2m on the 12th then perhaps he's Willies County horse. That'll be 3 hurdle runs, all over the minimum. He's run them and won with them in the County before off top weight.

5 runs in total, including France, so I do wonder what they are planning. Quevega mentioned the Martin Pipe I think, and I could well see it, but then again any handicap he can run in must be an option. Wouldn't want to guess right now.

I'm surprised he's a 4/1 poke for any race still, tbh.

[CJW]

Was just putting together some research on this and found the following:

Winners for Willie Mullins in the Lawlors or Naas and then their respective Cheltenham runs:

Homer Wells - No run at the festival
Mikael D'Haguenet - Won Ballymore
Gagewell Flyer - PU Albert Bartlett
Briar Hill - Fell in Albert Bartlett when still travelling well
McKinley - Well beat in the Martin Pipe
Bellshill - Well beat in the Supreme
Next Destination - 3rd Ballymore

Other noted runners that didn't win the Lawlors of Naas but went on to run at the festival:

Champagne Fever - 3rd in LoN (had an infection) - Won Supreme
Tarcagua - 2nd in LoN - PU Albert Bartlett
Getareason - 3rd in LoN - Well beat in the Martin Pipe
Elixir D'Ainay -2nd in LoN - Fell in Supreme when still travelling well
Blue Lord - 2nd in LoN - Fell in Supreme when well held 2nd
Whatdeawant - 5th in LoN - 3rd in Bally but well held


Only two 7 year old winners for Willie Mullins in the race, Homer Well who never ran at the festival that season and Gagewell Flyer who ran in the Albert Bartlett.

Good work, I had similar thoughts so my comments not just random stats then lol.

[Lobos]

5 runs in total, including France, so I do wonder what they are planning. Quevega mentioned the Martin Pipe I think, and I could well see it, but then again any handicap he can run in must be an option. Wouldn't want to guess right now.

I'm surprised he's a 4/1 poke for any race still, tbh.

8/1 NRNB for County
4/1 Any is very fair. Takes away the pain.

[TCH29]

Was just putting together some research on this and found the following:

Winners for Willie Mullins in the Lawlors or Naas and then their respective Cheltenham runs:

Homer Wells - No run at the festival
Mikael D'Haguenet - Won Ballymore
Gagewell Flyer - PU Albert Bartlett
Briar Hill - Fell in Albert Bartlett when still travelling well
McKinley - Well beat in the Martin Pipe
Bellshill - Well beat in the Supreme
Next Destination - 3rd Ballymore

Other noted runners that didn't win the Lawlors of Naas but went on to run at the festival:

Champagne Fever - 3rd in LoN (had an infection) - Won Supreme
Tarcagua - 2nd in LoN - PU Albert Bartlett
Getareason - 3rd in LoN - Well beat in the Martin Pipe
Elixir D'Ainay -2nd in LoN - Fell in Supreme when still travelling well
Blue Lord - 2nd in LoN - Fell in Supreme when well held 2nd
Whatdeawant - 5th in LoN - 3rd in Bally but well held


Only two 7 year old winners for Willie Mullins in the race, Homer Well who never ran at the festival that season and Gagewell Flyer who ran in the Albert Bartlett.

Thanks for this, CoD. My interpretation of that data is that the declarations today (and lack of declaration for Gaelic) mean very little. Grangeclare West could still go in either race. The winner of Lawlor’s doesn’t have a great follow up record, and Gaelic Warrior could still go anywhere.

I still think Gaelic will end up in the Ballymore and Grangeclare in the Spud race, but I’m probably wrong.

[FinalFurlong91]

If they could protect his mark he'd be a shoe in for the pipe or county off sub 145

134 in Ireland if they can keep that below 140 he'd likely get in

But given the way Willie operates you'd think he will be highly tried pre festival

Maybe he runs at clonmel next week then thrown into the DRF grade 1 vs facile

[ComplyOrDie]

Thanks for this, CoD. My interpretation of that data is that the declarations today (and lack of declaration for Gaelic) mean very little. Grangeclare West could still go in either race. The winner of Lawlor’s doesn’t have a great follow up record, and Gaelic Warrior could still go anywhere.

I still think Gaelic will end up in the Ballymore and Grangeclare in the Spud race, but I’m probably wrong.

I would agree with this. I was hoping it may point us in one direction or another, but ultimately it just muddies the waters further

Now it's going to depend on the performance on the day, though Grangeclare West being by Presenting and crossed with Sir Harry Lewis and being a 7 year old has me thinking spud race too, tbh.

[ComplyOrDie]

If they could protect his mark he'd be a shoe in for the pipe or county off sub 145

134 in Ireland if they can keep that below 140 he'd likely get in

But given the way Willie operates you'd think he will be highly tried pre festival

Maybe he runs at clonmel next week then thrown into the DRF grade 1 vs facile

Well he's not going to beat FV, and I'm not sure he'd get too close to beating him either, technically he's still only a 134 rated handicapper, FV you'd be looking at 145+ at this current time, so that could be the right option for him.

[Lobos]

Last six winners for willie in the lawlors, 2 ran in the ballymore, 1 winner.

I personally don't think G West will win Sunday so the Albert is still a distinct possibility imo.

I can't get away from Inothewayurthinkin. Gavin reckons the step up will suit him as he's finished both his races off very strong. I've been hanging on to back him as I've been really impressed but have now pulled the trigger in the Ballymore. 25's looks very fair to me. If he doesn't get home then he'll drift for the Supreme anyway so I can consider him for that after. I do think he'll win though.

[DenmanSacre]

Glad TCB wasn't declared. Let him go to the DRF or to Clonmel before the Albert Bartlett.

Interesting race with a mix of stayers vs speedsters.

I wouldn't have said Irish Point was crying out for this trip but is the choice for Jack - if he stays he will take some beating.

Imagine again I wouldn't have said needs this trip and looks a handicap job to me now.

Inothewaurthinkin is the interesting one. Does Cromwell/JP want him running well or will he be a handicap job as well?

I'm sure the market beforehand will tell us a lot.

[Benjy23]

5 runs in total, including France, so I do wonder what they are planning. Quevega mentioned the Martin Pipe I think, and I could well see it, but then again any handicap he can run in must be an option. Wouldn't want to guess right now.

I'm surprised he's a 4/1 poke for any race still, tbh.

You might as well go around every option with Hills NRNB as take that 4/1? Admittedly you're trying up more funds for a few months but the worst you'll end up with is a 4/1 shot. Could end up with an 8/1 shot. There's five realistic enough options isn't there?

And you're covered if he doesn't run at all, I'm guessing the any race is antepost if it's elsewhere?

[CJW]

Willie thought that clonmel race was 2 and half, didn't he..