2023 Novice Hurdlers

[nortonscoin200]

I do like the idea of Luccia for the Tolworth, given shes more experienced than Jet Powered and receiving 7lb, that looks a good call.

That was my take.

Better to run in the Tolworth at a track where she has form and receiving weight on a date that suits Cheltenham - than carrying a penalty somewhere else where the other ducks also don't line up.

Watching Hendo's Unibet interview I didn't get the impression this was the starting point for a Supreme strategy - though I accept there's the possibility it could end up that way if she demolishes the Tolworth field.

But right now I reckon he's still preparing her for the MNH.

[AaronLad]

I don't recall Hendo wanting to positively compare a once raced Novice Hurdler with previous Supreme Winners, in the past.

He's normally a trainer who prefers to let the horses run and win first before bigging them up.

I sense that he's going to run Jet Powered in a smaller race 2nd time out, and not launch into the Grade 1.

He did this with Shishkin, Altior, Buveur D'air etc, before the Supreme.

I have no issues with him giving horses more time in lower Grades and then going to the Supreme.

I do like the idea of Luccia for the Tolworth, given shes more experienced than Jet Powered and receiving 7lb, that looks a good call.

It's negatively comparing jet powered that would have me worried as a backer and make him easy to overlook.

Jet powered has ran, and won convincingly.

It would appear this way.

Buveur d'air didn't win a supreme. Altior and shishkin were his only supreme winners in the previous 10+ years before this last season( he's compared him negatively to these horses, if he's good enough he probably wouldn't be negative about him was my point)

I have no issue with this either, more experience the better imo.

Luccia does have a great chance of winning the Tolworth.

I wasn't interested in jet powered for the supreme before hendersons comments and they certainly aren't a positive is all i'm saying. And I think luccia will be in the mares novice come march. But with a convincing win in the tolworth and no gelding showing him want he wants to see from a supreme winner, I think it would increase the chances of luccia going for the supreme.

[Carnage at Taunton]

It's negatively comparing jet powered that would have me worried as a backer and make him easy to overlook.

Jet powered has ran, and won convincingly.

It would appear this way.

Buveur d'air didn't win a supreme. Altior and shishkin were his only supreme winners in the previous 10+ years before this last season( he's compared him negatively to these horses, if he's good enough he probably wouldn't be negative about him was my point)

I have no issue with this either, more experience the better imo.

Luccia does have a great chance of winning the Tolworth.

I wasn't interested in jet powered for the supreme before hendersons comments and they certainly aren't a positive is all i'm saying. And I think luccia will be in the mares novice come march. But with a convincing win in the tolworth and no gelding showing him want he wants to see from a supreme winner, I think it would increase the chances of luccia going for the supreme.

Beware trainers comments when thinking of having a bet, thats something i have learned over the years.

i expect Jet Powered to win his next race, and then off to the Supreme.
Not so sure re Luccia, but as said before, wins the Tolworth, a decision will be there to be made.
One thing i am pretty sure of at least one of them will line up in Supreme.
Hendo loves the race.
Mind you Fire Step has not been seen yet, he might add to the equation.

[charlie]

It's negatively comparing jet powered that would have me worried as a backer and make him easy to overlook.

Jet powered has ran, and won convincingly.

It would appear this way.

Buveur d'air didn't win a supreme. Altior and shishkin were his only supreme winners in the previous 10+ years before this last season( he's compared him negatively to these horses, if he's good enough he probably wouldn't be negative about him was my point)

I have no issue with this either, more experience the better imo.

Luccia does have a great chance of winning the Tolworth.

I wasn't interested in jet powered for the supreme before hendersons comments and they certainly aren't a positive is all i'm saying. And I think luccia will be in the mares novice come march. But with a convincing win in the tolworth and no gelding showing him want he wants to see from a supreme winner, I think it would increase the chances of luccia going for the supreme.

Saxon is spot on IMO. Nicky likes his horses to run and win well before comparing them to his best.

It's not in Nicky's interest (or any trainers for that matter) to compare maiden hurdle winners with the greats of the game.

Managing owner expectations is an important part of being a trainer and it's unrealistic to expect Nicky to do this, or, to take it as a negative when he doesn't.

99 times out of 100 Jet Powered won't be one of those superstars and Nicky will look daft, but when he is, Nicky looks a training genius.

Nicky has won 3 of the last 7 Supremes so must be respected, but, he talks a lot of shit, so I would focus more on what you see than hear.

Coincidently, both the horses you name (Altior and Shishkin) hardly set the world alight on debut, so for all we know JP could turn into one of them.

[The Giant Bolster]

You obviously can't see the comments as a positive but at the same time I personally wouldn't see them as too big a negative. Henderson says a lot of sometimes contradictory things and also downplayed Jet Powered before his debut. I personally let decs and performances guide my view of his runners and pay little attention to his public quotes on quality of work.

[AaronLad]

charlie I have only mentioned the horses you say that I name when replying to posts that mention said horses. My original post was in regards to how Nicky Henderson compared Jet powered negatively with better horses he had in the past, as per his recent unibet interview. My actual words were somewhere along the line of pouring cold water on jet powered with his recent comments. It has now spiralled into you being quite insistent i have named horses, when in fact as i have said above I have only replied to others. The subject is now becoming tiresome, and i Tried to clarify my opinion with my last post which I'm not sure you have read properly or you have misunderstood.

[JackieMoon33]

Nicky is pissed by lunch time most days so I’d check the timing of the blog post.

[AaronLad]

Beware trainers comments when thinking of having a bet, thats something i have learned over the years.

i expect Jet Powered to win his next race, and then off to the Supreme.
Not so sure re Luccia, but as said before, wins the Tolworth, a decision will be there to be made.
One thing i am pretty sure of at least one of them will line up in Supreme.
Hendo loves the race.
Mind you Fire Step has not been seen yet, he might add to the equation.

I agree with everything you say here, we have just taken Nickys recent comments differently

[Carnage at Taunton]

I agree with everything you say here, we have just taken Nickys recent comments differently

And nowt wrong with that mate.
Fair enough I would say

[archie]

Nicky is pissed by lunch time most days so I’d check the timing of the blog post.

It's what I do with many of the posts on here.

[JackieMoon33]

It's what I do with many of the posts on here.

If you see mine at random times of the night, it’s not because I’m pissed it’s because I have a 3 month old. Both probably have the same effect on my coherence

[charlie]

charlie I have only mentioned the horses you say that I name when replying to posts that mention said horses. My original post was in regards to how Nicky Henderson compared Jet powered negatively with better horses he had in the past, as per his recent unibet interview. My actual words were somewhere along the line of pouring cold water on jet powered with his recent comments. It has now spiralled into you being quite insistent i have named horses, when in fact as i have said above I have only replied to others. The subject is now becoming tiresome, and i Tried to clarify my opinion with my last post which I'm not sure you have read properly or you have misunderstood.

Strong opinions fuel great debate AaronLad but you'll find them challenged on here (which is a good thing!!). Calling Nicky's comments 'alarming' and saying 'he (Nicky) knows jet powered has no chance of winning a supreme' are very strong views (which I like), but, it's going to prompt a response from members who may feel differently, which is fine, but you need to expect that. I read what you said fully and responded once, so no idea where 'spiralled into you being quite insistent' or 'the subject is now becoming tiresome' have come from? I said it's unrealistic to expect a trainer to compare maiden winners to past greats and I stand by that view. We can agree to disagree and I would add that deciphering what trainers mean when they say things is a superb example of the greyest grey area going.

[Saxon Warrior]

It's negatively comparing jet powered that would have me worried as a backer and make him easy to overlook.

Jet powered has ran, and won convincingly.

It would appear this way.

Buveur d'air didn't win a supreme. Altior and shishkin were his only supreme winners in the previous 10+ years before this last season( he's compared him negatively to these horses, if he's good enough he probably wouldn't be negative about him was my point)

I have no issue with this either, more experience the better imo.

Luccia does have a great chance of winning the Tolworth.

I wasn't interested in jet powered for the supreme before hendersons comments and they certainly aren't a positive is all i'm saying. And I think luccia will be in the mares novice come march. But with a convincing win in the tolworth and no gelding showing him want he wants to see from a supreme winner, I think it would increase the chances of luccia going for the supreme.

Yes, it would increase her chances, but before then Ireland will likely have standout 2M hurdles performances over Christmas, and New Year. Facile Vega and at least one, or more, in a 2M MdnH from Willies that shortens dramatically for the Supreme, I would think.

Luccia price would cut for the Supreme, but I still don't think she'd run in it.

Great for her owners to chase Grade 1 Black Type in the Tolworth which rarely has any quality depth below 2 horses deep.

Hopefully it's a better edition this time round though.

[Birds Nest]

Just a couple of things to add to the 'picking apart' nickys unibet comments . He did say Jet P wasnt up to the previous standard YET...i would take that as a positive. Also he namechecked jp as ones he's most excited about then added Luccia to the list too. He also said there aren't many better than her, indicating imo that there is a couple of novices that are better than her. PS i do love it when we put trainers comments on the couch and evaluate, its good fun. Well done chaps.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yes, it would increase her chances, but before then Ireland will likely have standout 2M hurdles performances over Christmas, and New Year. Facile Vega and at least one, or more, in a 2M MdnH from Willies that shortens dramatically for the Supreme, I would think.

Luccia price would cut for the Supreme, but I still don't think she'd run in it.

Great for her owners to chase Grade 1 Black Type in the Tolworth which rarely has any quality depth below 2 horses deep.

Hopefully it's a better edition this time round though.

Probably depends on the going, often pretty desperate ground for the Tolworth, can be tough for a novice