2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Faugheen]

For me Redemption Day will definitely head to the Supreme and while that doesn't necessarily mean FV won't too I'd much rather take the 8/1ish to have Townend on board than the 6/4 with Patrick on FV if the ground isn't bottomless on the Tuesday then RD holds a huge chance of turning the Punchestown form around IMO. If they see FV as a genuine Champ hurdler down the line then Ballymore would make more sense following in Faugheen hoof prints. Apart from the unknown PTP recruits likely heading for the Ballymore FV has everything else covered, smashed American Mike twice, nothing from the bumpers last season looks able to improve enough to taste his kick back let alone beat him so the only danger at the moment seems to be Redemption Day at 2 miles and potentially Jet Powered if he turns out to be as decent as touted, Hendo will always send his best the supreme route, obviously plans change due to one thing or another during the season so could end up in either but I'd be leaning strongly towards Bally despite the price and just hope the likes of An Tobar etc come out before him and put in impressive displays to have FV drift to a more sensible price for one who's not jumped a hurdle in public, not that I think he'll ever be bigger than 5/2 unfortunately no matter what anything else does and assuming he goes into Chelts unbeaten which he looks to be more than capable of.

[Zachx02]

For me Redemption Day will definitely head to the Supreme and while that doesn't necessarily mean FV won't too I'd much rather take the 8/1ish to have Townend on board than the 6/4 with Patrick on FV if the ground isn't bottomless on the Tuesday then RD holds a huge chance of turning the Punchestown form around IMO. If they see FV as a genuine Champ hurdler down the line then Ballymore would make more sense following in Faugheen hoof prints. Apart from the unknown PTP recruits likely heading for the Ballymore FV has everything else covered, smashed American Mike twice, nothing from the bumpers last season looks able to improve enough to taste his kick back let alone beat him so the only danger at the moment seems to be Redemption Day at 2 miles and potentially Jet Powered if he turns out to be as decent as touted, Hendo will always send his best the supreme route, obviously plans change due to one thing or another during the season so could end up in either but I'd be leaning strongly towards Bally despite the price and just hope the likes of An Tobar etc come out before him and put in impressive displays to have FV drift to a more sensible price for one who's not jumped a hurdle in public, not that I think he'll ever be bigger than 5/2 unfortunately no matter what anything else does and assuming he goes into Chelts unbeaten which he looks to be more than capable of.

Patrick most definitely will not ride FV when it comes to hurdles, he only rides bumpers for willie and picks up free rides or gets certain rides such as Sharjah

[Faugheen]

Patrick most definitely will not ride FV when it comes to hurdles, he only rides bumpers for willie and picks up free rides or gets certain rides such as Sharjah

Is there not some personal connection between Hammer and Trowel syndicate and Patrick? Maybe I'm way off but regardless the pair of them over 2m would be a tough decision for Townend nonetheless.

[Zachx02]

Is there not some personal connection between Hammer and Trowel syndicate and Patrick? Maybe I'm way off but regardless the pair of them over 2m would be a tough decision for Townend nonetheless.

Not that I can recall, they've had other horses with Willie post Quevega and a range of jockey's have ridden for them Townend, Patrick, Danny

[Run4Home]

Is there not some personal connection between Hammer and Trowel syndicate and Patrick? Maybe I'm way off but regardless the pair of them over 2m would be a tough decision for Townend nonetheless.

No nothing between the lads other than being around the yard a long time - no way Paul gets off Facile this year i'd say.

[ComplyOrDie]

No nothing between the lads other than being around the yard a long time - no way Paul gets off Facile this year i'd say.

Which route would you think he goes, currently, if you had to pick one?

[Run4Home]

Which route would you think he goes, currently, if you had to pick one?

I think he starts at 2m and stays there unless theres a reason to go up in trip. Wins wherever he goes anyway!

Was chatting with Codd , he was amazed by him and what he did to Mike. Not often he rants about horses in other stables.

[Bollinger]

Indeed. You'd want that for Facile Vega to even make the festival, IMO.

I'm much more inclined to go with my gut and opinion and back the race I think he'll end up in. In this case, the Ballymore.

Though admittedly, some prices appear short 6 months out (but they didn’t seem so short in the hours after the festival,
when really, if you can, you need to be using what evidence you have to make an informed choice for 12 months later, if it’s a way you use to obtain value…..) - your thoughts of 6/4 on Facile Vega to even make the festival (or realistically what you’d like) are sadly, for any bookmaker, very wide of the mark.

If any bookmaker was giving you odds of any specific horse ‘making it to the festival’ in 6 months time, the harsh reality is, they’d be offering you 1/5 a specific horse, and probably shorter.

If they offered 6/4 any horse to just make the festival, you’re admitting it’s odds against making the festival, when in reality, that most definitely is not the case. It’s most definitely very short odds on that any horse will make it - certainly those with no injury records.

The prime market to use as an example is the ‘selected for Qatar England World Cup squad’. The large majority of the key players we know will be going (Kane, Sterling, Stones, Rice etc….) range from 1/12 to 1/25 across a variety of bookmakers, and they’ve each still got 5 or 6 matches left before the final squad is announced at the end of October - matches of a high physical nature where any amount of injuries, however niggly, could see them miss out on Qatar.

We all know Harry Kane is the first name on Southgate’s teamsheet, but would you take 1/20 on him getting through a few highly competitive matches without so much of a scratch? Probably not, I would guess.

But it’s a market that, with horses in a similar position (3,4 or in some cases 5 races of high physical activity - with rest in between) it’s a comparable market in my opinion to observe.

If you put say Honeysuckle, Energumene, Allaho, Facile Vega & A Plus Tard at 6/4 each just ‘to make it to the festival’ - I could have 3 of those ‘not make it’ at 6/4 and still break even exactly. The probability is that any 3 of these will be present at Cheltenham, most likely 4 of them, and a reasonable chance all 5 of them. Just 3 from 5 would make you a profit.

Bookmakers don’t want you making a profit, at all.

If we were thinking it’s 6/4 odds against that a specific horse make it to the festival, there’d probably be no festival - or in a best case scenario - 4 horse races like last year’s Marsh Chase.

[Quevega]

That'll teach you to make a throwaway comment ComplyOrDie

[ComplyOrDie]

That'll teach you to make a throwaway comment ComplyOrDie

Was a very well put response, in fairness.

I still stand by my opinion though

[Quevega]

Was a very well put response, in fairness.

It was, I liked it ! Bollinger


I still stand by my opinion though

I'd expect nothing less.

[Lobos]

That'll teach you to make a throwaway comment ComplyOrDie

This place is brutal!

[archie]

As we've discussed before, everyone will have their own fudge factor, even if it's only a vague unwritten feeling, for deciding whether they want to take a particular ante post price and this will include a figure for how likely that horse is likely to line up in x months time. As x reduces, so do the odds on lining up.

I have to say that the two figures suggested so far are wildly different from my own which reflects my general caution in ante post betting and my not making a book. It can vary depending on the horse's previous fitness record but, as a rule of thumb, my factor for the probability of a horse turning up fit and well at Cheltenham is along the lines of:
Evens - until the horse comes back in from its summer break.
4/6 - while the horse is in training until its first run.
1/2 - after the first run until the Christmas festivals.
1/3 - after the Christmas festivals.

There are other things to take into account for individual races and individual horses (eg. is it the likely target?), but as a starting point I'm comfortable with my figures for what is more of an art than a science. After all, art is not to everyone's taste and some of it is a load of Jackson Pollocks.

[That Horse]

After all, art is not to everyone's taste and some of it is a load of Jackson Pollocks.

I love a bit of Bob Ross painting a mountain to help me sleep

[Benjy23]

Could quite reasonably make a science of it like. How many fancied horses at this stage of an antepost book actually historically made it the festival. And I think you're getting a greater result than the 50% that evens would suggest.

6/4 to make the Supreme line up might have been a better opening statement

I'd go balls deep on 6/4 for him to make the festival at all if anyone wants to lay it! Evens as well to be fair.