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Could quite reasonably make a science of it like. How many fancied horses at this stage of an antepost book actually historically made it the festival. And I think you're getting a greater result than the 50% that evens would suggest.
I think you're misreading. The horses are now in the 4/6 phase.
If you want to make a science of it, maybe you should make a note of the top 10 in the Supreme betting (and their prices) and see how many start the race (and at what price).
Willie says Royal Bond target for No Risk No Fun if he keeps progressing
I'd say he will have at least 3 or 4 better at home, wouldn't interest me 1 bit. Has anyone actually added him for one of the novice hurdles at the fez?
I'd say he will have at least 3 or 4 better at home, wouldn't interest me 1 bit. Has anyone actually added him for one of the novice hurdles at the fez?
I think you're misreading. The horses are now in the 4/6 phase.
If you want to make a science of it, maybe you should make a note of the top 10 in the Supreme betting (and their prices) and see how many start the race (and at what price).
Aye, 4/6. I just read the headlines.
Not sure the top 10 in the supreme is really a reasonable sample to be honest. As FV is likely the most 'known' quantity of the lot of them. How many champion bumper winners made it to the next year's festival is probably a better sample if you want to focus on him alone.
But I might go back through a few of last year's races at this time of the year if I'm bored enough tomorrow. The novice races are inevitably going to show a much lower percentage than the open races, which again calls into question the logic of pricing all the same...
Not sure the top 10 in the supreme is really a reasonable sample to be honest. As FV is likely the most 'known' quantity of the lot of them. How many champion bumper winners made it to the next year's festival is probably a better sample if you want to focus on him alone.
But I might go back through a few of last year's races at this time of the year if I'm bored enough tomorrow. The novice races are inevitably going to show a much lower percentage than the open races, which again calls into question the logic of pricing all the same...
Off the top of my head the bumper winner returning to the festival is around the 66% mark (possibly lower). So 1 in 3 don't return the following year ish !!!!!
If you factor in supreme being a shade of odds on and the bally more odds against.
It makes the prices of 9/4/ & 5/2 and 7/2 & 4-1 respectively about right.
This doesn't factor in the opposition though - which could be inferior or not.
I'd say he will have at least 3 or 4 better at home, wouldn't interest me 1 bit. Has anyone actually added him for one of the novice hurdles at the fez?
He is my Sprinter Sacre - I am so looking forward to him jumping a fence because he will go through a brick wall. I'm delighted as she (Blackmore) said he rode very raw and while he ran on the flat, he is 17 hands and she said he rode like a point to pointer. She said he wasn't as sharp as your normal four year old that had run on the flat. She gave him a beautiful ride, was able to see a stride on him and she said he would be better in a better run race, where you could sit him in. He could go up to 2m4f as it would suit, but might run in a two-miles flat handicap at Thurles next month as he has a pretty low rating. I think he will be there or thereabouts for the novice season and I don't think soft ground is an issue, at the the moment anyway. We'll find out but certainly come the spring, when we need him, he will be alright.
bullish quote - been a while since he had a good one
Does anyone have an inkling where Firestep might run? I was keen on him last year, but Hendo seems mad about him this year after his injury. I had thought Ballymore.
Does anyone have an inkling where Firestep might run? I was keen on him last year, but Hendo seems mad about him this year after his injury. I had thought Ballymore.
Based on previous race planning I think Henderson will start him at 2m and then step him up if he loses. Could be wrong but that's his usual way.
Does anyone have an inkling where Firestep might run? I was keen on him last year, but Hendo seems mad about him this year after his injury. I had thought Ballymore.
Hendo's comments on him last year: I would be disappointed if he doesn't take high rank in novice hurdles this season. He did everything right in his two bumpers and he has loads of scope. He has schooled really well, and I think he could be very good. He shouldn't have a problem staying two and a half miles and he is something to look forward too.
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The novice races are inevitably going to show a much lower percentage than the open races, which again calls into question the logic of pricing all the same...
He is my Sprinter Sacre - I am so looking forward to him jumping a fence because he will go through a brick wall. I'm delighted as she (Blackmore) said he rode very raw and while he ran on the flat, he is 17 hands and she said he rode like a point to pointer. She said he wasn't as sharp as your normal four year old that had run on the flat. She gave him a beautiful ride, was able to see a stride on him and she said he would be better in a better run race, where you could sit him in. He could go up to 2m4f as it would suit, but might run in a two-miles flat handicap at Thurles next month as he has a pretty low rating. I think he will be there or thereabouts for the novice season and I don't think soft ground is an issue, at the the moment anyway. We'll find out but certainly come the spring, when we need him, he will be alright.
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