2023 Novice Hurdlers

[ToniC]

Agreed to a certain extent of your point here of a very short price, and you’d like to take him on with another at a bigger price, but 99.9% of the time, odds are just compiled on historical evidence.

You go to a bookmaker and show him a few horses that you fancy at decent prices to win next year’s Supreme and the bookie will take you through Facile Vega’s cruises last season over 2 miles. The evidence, thus far, piles up for Facile Vega.

You need to find a horse that shows evidence, or heard of with evidence, that’ll beat Facile Vega. As of yet, there appears to be none that either punter or bookie know of, I would reasonably suggest.

And yes, I acknowledge too he may go the Ballymore route.

It’s no different with Allaho. People say ‘6/4 and 7/4 is ridiculous 6 months out for the Ryanair. The bookies will just tell you theoretically to find a horse that’ll beat him. Prove it, as such.

I agree some odds are short. But unless someone can put a compelling case of a horse against Facile Vega, the liability isn’t going to change.

7/4 Allaho Ryanair shows exactly what a bad price FV supreme is at 9/4 imo…

[Lobos]

7/4 Allaho Ryanair shows exactly what a bad price FV supreme is at 9/4 imo…

If we knew FV was targeting the Supreme, would 9/4 then seem about right ? I wonder how much money has been placed on him for the race and how much more has been placed on him for the opener over the Ballymore.
6/4 to win any race is the way to go if you've not already had a bet and are desperate to have a single on him.

[Odin]

If we knew FV was targeting the Supreme, would 9/4 then seem about right ? I wonder how much money has been placed on him for the race and how much more has been placed on him for the opener over the Ballymore.
6/4 to win any race is the way to go if you've not already had a bet and are desperate to have a single on him.

I can't help but wonder if it's probably more liability management for all the Bumper and Any Race doubles that has caused him to go so short. If so, it's understandable from a risk management perspective and there's no reason for anyone to go standout 4/1 even if many others are around the 2/1, 5/2 mark.

I'm not backing him atm but agree that 6/4 any race over 9/4 supreme is definitely the way to go if I do

[FinalFurlong91]

If we knew FV was targeting the Supreme, would 9/4 then seem about right ? I wonder how much money has been placed on him for the race and how much more has been placed on him for the opener over the Ballymore.
6/4 to win any race is the way to go if you've not already had a bet and are desperate to have a single on him.

6/4 any race is soooo short though

Nobody in their right mind would take that would they?

7 months before the race

Never jumped a hurdle in public

A division where a superstar regularly turns up out of knowhere with no proper bumper form

You'll find better 6/4 bets running at Wolverhampton on a Wednesday night

[ComplyOrDie]

6/4 any race is soooo short though

Indeed. You'd want that for Facile Vega to even make the festival, IMO.

I'm much more inclined to go with my gut and opinion and back the race I think he'll end up in. In this case, the Ballymore.

[FinalFurlong91]

Indeed. You'd want that for Facile Vega to even make the festival, IMO.

I'm much more inclined to go with my gut and opinion and back the race I think he'll end up in. In this case, the Ballymore.

He's a pretty rubbish price in that too given we have zero idea which race he goes too

If I hadn't already backed him I'd be leaving him alone at this stage

Something will emerge at a better price that wasn't a star in bumpers, they almost always do

[ComplyOrDie]

He's a pretty rubbish price in that too given we have zero idea which race he goes too

If I hadn't already backed him I'd be leaving him alone at this stage

Something will emerge at a better price that wasn't a star in bumpers, they almost always do

Oh yeah, lots of novice hurdlers to come out, including what Willie has at home alongside FV, but if I had to pick a race for him it would be the Ballymore right now, and that is where I'm trying to get him onside for, mostly in roll ups.

[Lobos]

6/4 any race is soooo short though

Nobody in their right mind would take that would they?

7 months before the race

Never jumped a hurdle in public

A division where a superstar regularly turns up out of knowhere with no proper bumper form

You'll find better 6/4 bets running at Wolverhampton on a Wednesday night

Agreed. Need to get him in a few TWAR RAB's doubles plus play Bingo with him with a single in the Ballymore. For me, he'd always be shorter on the day going for the Ballymore as opposed to the Supreme, so 4/1 over 5/2 is the play imo.

[Quevega]

Oh yeah, lots of novice hurdlers to come out, including what Willie has at home alongside FV, but if I had to pick a race for him it would be the Ballymore right now, and that is where I'm trying to get him onside for, mostly in roll ups.

If and when facile vega runs in a maiden hurdle and more importantly a graded race after winning his maiden- which race distance is most likely?
if Willie doesn’t mention a specific Cheltenham target then do you think he’d shorten for both if he wins a graded race over 2 miles for example ?

2 questions there - hope you see where I’m coming from.
IMO - backing facile for the ballymore now is a gamble on Willie mentioning the race for him in his tour.
which could pay off although Willie is likely to be vague enough.
as it stands it looks to me like he’d win whichever race he runs in, but as we all know and recent posts have mentioned. There are lots of others to come out of the woodwork.
He is racing royalty though so it’ll take an accident or something decent to beat him.

[ComplyOrDie]

If and when facile vega runs in a maiden hurdle and more importantly a graded race after winning his maiden- which race distance is most likely?
if Willie doesn’t mention a specific Cheltenham target then do you think he’d shorten for both if he wins a graded race over 2 miles for example ?

Good questions.

I can see him very much running in 2m races (potentially over further in a maiden), a bit like Sir Gerhard did, leading up to the festival. Will he shorten for both? Most likely, given how incredibly tight/fearful the bookmakers are about Facile Vega.

[Lobos]

Agree Q he'll win whatever race he runs in. I do think he'll shorten a lot after his Hurdles debut as visually punters we'll have opinions of where he'll end up and Willie will say his piece.

[Istabraq]

Is there a need to back FV now ?
With target far from certain and likely to stay that way until they’ve gone over the Imperial Cup line, is holding off and hitting some evens (or thereabouts) not a better play ?
No bet makes for a dull forum though I get that…

[Quevega]

Is there a need to back FV now ?
With target far from certain and likely to stay that way until they’ve gone over the Imperial Cup line, is holding off and hitting some evens (or thereabouts) not a better play ?
No bet makes for a dull forum though I get that…

That’s my thought
there is a sequence of events that sees him go off long odds on but it’s unlikely enough and especially if he runs in the supreme id be surprised if even money is not around pre or post Dublin
and obviously could even be bigger or of no interest by that time.
might not see him till Xmas too so price shouldn’t move an awful lot unless all the other novices can’t finish a race

[Quevega]

The price should hold well enough unless the uk form looks horrendous

[Istabraq]

The price should hold well enough unless the uk form looks horrendous

There appear to be some highly touted PTP horses (as there usually is) so any one or more of those look impressive over mid distance and the price of FV has to hold deep into the Winter as you say…