2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Carnage at Taunton]

Whilst I kind of agree with your first point. Especially at the prices all day long.
Ranking a Willie Mullins horses above a Paul Nicholls novice hurdler don't take much persuasion for most of us.

The second bit is very unlike you Sax !

Picking one horse out of a race as evidence to make a point vs another horse in a different race on very different ground is a stretch

"Hermes Allen beat a 129 rated horse by 40 lengths in the challow"

When people pluck stuff out like that we really could go on all day. It's Moot.
Otherwise are we saying they should both be rated 160+

And some of these novice races in Ireland have been incredibly difficult to judge, as there is even more signs that many are simply not even trying to compete.
It's never been this bad.
Willie power.

Yep, odds on shot from the Mullins yard, goes off in front and wins as he likes, no challenge
How many times we going to see this happen this season and years to come, be it hurdles or fences.
Personally find it rather tedious.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Nope
A good few pound inferior I'd say.

Haha, thought you might say that!!

[ComplyOrDie]

Really ?
Beating blue sari is the best piece of novice form we've seen in Ireland ?
Come on Dan.
Blue Sari is not exactly a metronome is he ?
A JP owned handicapper ?

I agree with this.

If a non trier like Blue Sari is the benchmark we might as well call the novice hurdlers for what they are, absolutely dog s**t.

Blue Sari is a 138 rated hurdler at 2m5f. His hurdles form at 2m is 4th of 4, PU & PU. No doubt Willie has plans for him, but it won't have been the race today, that's for sure.

He also had to give Gaelic Warrior 3lbs today off the back of a 260 odd day break, and we know GW was fit.

On a line through Maidenstreetprince, Facile Vega is ahead of GW. Maidenstreetprince was 23 1/2 lengths behind Gaelic Warrior today, having finished 11 1/2 lengths behind Intranet who in turn finished 33 lengths behind Facile Vega. Obviously you can allow certain amounts for manner of victory etc.... but it is at least some sort of small form line.

[Quevega]

Is beating Il Etait Temps by 4 lengths really better than what Gaelic Warrior did today? Like I say, fully expecting FV to beat it at the DRF, but not sure I'd agree with that and I'd be surprised if the RPRs didn't back that up.

Royal Bond I'd probably annoyingly agree with now I've thought about it a bit more, think I was probably just exaggerating a bit to make a point because everyone was so negative don't think there's much between them though.

I think he will be a big player in whichever race he goes in, got him covered in both too. I'd definitely prefer if he went Ballymore but really not sure which way he will go.

IMO, yes.
But it's only that.
We cannot be sure either way.

Don't forget the handicapper put IET up to 144 after that race, and the mare sax mentioned was also put up 9lb to 133.

I personally rank Facile's win more as he beat horses in his remit, meaning other maiden winners, and did it comfortably enough.

I'm not counting Blue Sari as I think he's a dodgepot (has won 3) but the others in that race I think had won 3 races between them, and in Faciles (not including him) I think 10 or 11 wins between them.
There's also a very tenuous form line through intranet as well and the third today.

Like I said it's very much like his first run this season, visually very good, but form wise, trickier to evaluate.
Very much like Constitution Hill last year, but for every one like him there's plenty that don't go on.

It's always a safer option to back horses with solid form, but not as sexy.
So I do both.

[Quevega]

I agree with this.

If a non trier like Blue Sari is the benchmark we might as well call the novice hurdlers for what they are, absolutely dog s**t.

Blue Sari is a 138 rated hurdler at 2m5f. His hurdles form at 2m is 4th of 4, PU & PU. No doubt Willie has plans for him, but it won't have been the race today, that's for sure.

He also had to give Gaelic Warrior 3lbs today off the back of a 260 odd day break, and we know GW was fit.

On a line through Maidenstreetprince, Facile Vega is ahead of GW. Maidenstreetprince was 23 1/2 lengths behind Gaelic Warrior today, having finished 11 1/2 lengths behind Intranet who in turn finished 33 lengths behind Facile Vega. Obviously you can allow certain amounts for manner of victory etc.... but it is at least some sort of small form line.

was typing up similar by looks of it. Trying to eat soup so couldn't be bothered with all the lengths bit, so thanks.

[Odin]

Yep, odds on shot from the Mullins yard, goes off in front and wins as he likes, no challenge
How many times we going to see this happen this season and years to come, be it hurdles or fences.
Personally find it rather tedious.

Can see the tedious side of things, but definitely starts to offer betting potential if used correctly. Blood destiny last weekend a perfect example of being the only horse trying to win and wasn't far off even money at first show. Gaelic today nothing like that but it will be possible to pick them out for pocket money or roll up/WTAF options. Something I need to consider more moving forwards

[Dandrew99]

IMO, yes.
But it's only that.
We cannot be sure either way.

Don't forget the handicapper put IET up to 144 after that race, and the mare sax mentioned was also put up 9lb to 133.

I personally rank Facile's win more as he beat horses in his remit, meaning other maiden winners, and did it comfortably enough.

I'm not counting Blue Sari as I think he's a dodgepot (has won 3) but the others in that race I think had won 3 races between them, and in Faciles (not including him) I think 10 or 11 wins between them.
There's also a very tenuous form line through intranet as well and the third today.

Like I said it's very much like his first run this season, visually very good, but form wise, trickier to evaluate.
Very much like Constitution Hill last year, but for every one like him there's plenty that don't go on.

It's always a safer option to back horses with solid form, but not as sexy.
So I do both.

Not having that form line through Intranet... That's clutching at straws at best Jetoile was beaten 12 lengths by Constitution Hill, who then beat Jonbon by 22 lengths, therefore Jetoile is better than Jonbon (any excuse to bring up Jetoile).

But yeah, fair enough. Blue Sari is still a 150 chaser, even not trying he's probably ran to 130-135ish, eased down 15 length win puts GW at 150+ pretty easily.

Maybe I'm just making the point because people sounded more negative than they actually were

Who needs solid form when you can just look at the sexy performances of the Gaelic Good Ting?

[Quevega]

Can see the tedious side of things, but definitely starts to offer betting potential if used correctly. Blood destiny last weekend a perfect example of being the only horse trying to win and wasn't far off even money at first show. Gaelic today nothing like that but it will be possible to pick them out for pocket money or roll up/WTAF options. Something I need to consider more moving forwards

I've definitely benefited with the WTAF markets this season.

Either by working the odds when they don't react quick enough to price movements or they simply look attractive anyway cos you fancy the horse, or even as saver bets when you're backing something else in the race that day. Or ones that you're worried about in a race you have other fancies in.

I think I'm 6/14 now, having had a decent run to start with and have faded a bit since, but have got some well backed/touted horses at much bigger prices.

Noble yeats 150 (was a saver but also based on prices as he got backed for aintree)
Edwardstone 40 (was a saver) I had a big bet on greaneteen on the day.
Maxxum 40 (odds suggested it was worth it and I assemble a team for the pertemps so had to really)
Maries Rock 28 (just really fancied her and also backed her on the day)
Better Days Ahead 50 (odds suggested that if he won that race he would have to go near Fav)
Favori de champdou 66 (fancied him or kalanisi so did both as I like the jaguar race as a bartlett trial)

So I have lost with 8 of these attempts as well, and this has to be factored in, but without analysing it yet I do think it's something I'll continue to do and may do even more of next year.

I even have my own assistant who assembles the odds for me Eggs again.

Got my eye on one or two for Dublin.

[Lobos]

Fantastic Q. Smash those Fucking bookies !

[Saxon Warrior]

Whilst I kind of agree with your first point. Especially at the prices all day long.
Ranking a Willie Mullins horses above a Paul Nicholls novice hurdler don't take much persuasion for most of us.

The second bit is very unlike you Sax !

Picking one horse out of a race as evidence to make a point vs another horse in a different race on very different ground is a stretch

"Hermes Allen beat a 129 rated horse by 40 lengths in the challow"

When people pluck stuff out like that we really could go on all day. It's Moot.
Otherwise are we saying they should both be rated 160+

And some of these novice races in Ireland have been incredibly difficult to judge, as there is even more signs that many are simply not even trying to compete.
It's never been this bad.
Willie power.

I must have got lazy.
Just seeking to show that the Grade 1 label on the Challow is shallow, narrow and fallow.
Worth nothing more than a Listed race, usually, or an avrrage mid-season Grade 2 at best.

The Grade 1 Novice Hurdles before Cheltenham are worth tuppence, and from 2nd downwards can be rotten when assessing Cheltenham.

Individual winners can be top quality of course.
Con Hill proved that.
But he hammered his Grade 1 field
Hermes Allen didn't.

He could improve when given half a dozen Irish horses to beat in 8 weeks time, but I wouldnt bet on it happening in the Ballymore.

He'd have a bit more chance in the Bartlett IMHO.
But not a favourites chance.

FDC's win at Limerick over Letsbeclearaboutit and others, seems far deeper than the shallow Challow.

[Lobos]

Listen to Q sticking up for the shit English Novice Hurdlers........ whatever next

[Quevega]

FDC's win at Limerick over Letsbeclearaboutit and others, seems far deeper than the shallow Challow.

Yep, I love that race and also backed letsbeclearaboutit after that race. As most left him at 33-1.

Although what concerned me with that race was the proximity of the horses in behind.
I usually prefer my jaguar races where they finish strung out, as it often means it was a true test and only the biggest daftest lung buster has prevailed, or at least 2 finishing clear anyways.
But still happy to be on the first 2.

[Mighty]

I must have got lazy.
Just seeking to show that the Grade 1 label on the Challow is shallow, narrow and fallow.
Worth nothing more than a Listed race, usually, or an average mid-season Grade 2 at best.

Tell us how you really feel Sax…

Got to be up there for quote of the season that!

[Lobos]

Tell us how you really feel Sax…

Got to be up there for quote of the season that!

He's been on the juice tonight I reckon......

[Saxon Warrior]

Noble yeats 150 (was a saver but also based on prices as he got backed for aintree)

Edwardstone 40 (was a saver) I had a big bet on greaneteen on the day.

Maxxum 40 (odds suggested it was worth it and I assemble a team for the pertemps so had to really)

Maries Rock 28 (just really fancied her and also backed her on the day)

Better Days Ahead 50 (odds suggested that if he won that race he would have to go near Fav)

Favori de champdou 66 (fancied him or kalanisi so did both as I like the jaguar race as a bartlett trial)

Q,

How would these have gone if you'd backed them to win, and then backed them for the Festival target post-race with the winnings?

......and with a cashout firm, if that was a suitable option.

Maxxum obvs wouldn't have been 40s done in that manual way. I think several of us saw him smashing that Qualifier race up, and price-crashing.

FDC was at least 4s at some point, before being backed and 16s after?
So probably at least as good, backing manually.

BDA - ?

Edwardstone - ? (Was he backed in from bigger to 5s, for the race, then 7/2 after?)

Maries Rock - ? (11/2 SP win then 4s after?)

Noble Yeats - ? (Gambled in for the Aintree race, not sure of biggest price he was for that - then GCup 12s postrace?)