2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Saxon Warrior]

Him not winning off 129 last March didn't go down too well.

Yeah, I suppose I like to quell the hype sometimes, try and calm some of these young un's down a little.

Seen many a lad crash and burn, literally, including one who tried to end it all with a nail gun (of all things) so I'll always be there to hold a spike next to any over inflated balloons as a word of warning.

I thought he looked smashing today and him being competitive in a grade 1 Cheltenham race took a decent step forward.

But definitely not the best novice performance of the season so far, probably not even in the top 10 IMO.

I would put him in the top 5 on visuals though.

Almost certainly better than the potential crack (or cack?) novices trained in GB, where you can win a Grade 1 by 4-and-a-bit-lengths by beating a 125 rated Mare, and go 5/2 Ballymore Fav!!

Willie had a 125 rated horse in todays race vs Gaelic Warrior, got beat over 40 lengths.

[Rooster Booster]

Him not winning off 129 last March didn't go down too well.

Yeah, I suppose I like to quell the hype sometimes, try and calm some of these young un's down a little.

Seen many a lad crash and burn, literally, including one who tried to end it all with a nail gun (of all things) so I'll always be there to hold a spike next to any over inflated balloons as a word of warning.

I thought he looked smashing today and him being competitive in a grade 1 Cheltenham race took a decent step forward.

But definitely not the best novice performance of the season so far, probably not even in the top 10 IMO.

I would put him in the top 5 on visuals though.

Yeah I’m feeling incredibly protective of a few on here too. It’s great to have strength of conviction but I’ve found my greatest asset in this game to be my comfortable acceptance that I am wrong far more often than I am right and the importance of embracing the massively undervalued power of ...I DONT KNOW....

On GW my fairly irrelevant opinion is that you are underestimating him ...I think he is very good and not just visually. But like I say I’m usually wrong

[darlojim]

R Walsh put up IEP for his Ballymore pick on the Paddy Power Cheltenham podcast

Where is this at mate?

[Quevega]

Should have said over 2 miles...

Not sure beating Il Etait Temps by 4 lengths or The Model Kingdom by 6 lengths is better than that? What would you have as the strongest piece of 2 mile form so far? None of them have particularly beaten anything. Like I say, I do expect Facile Vega to beat it at the DRF.

Now you've narrowed it down to 2 miles
The Royal Bond mainly.
And Facile Vega at Christmas.

I'd rank Facile better than today as the race had nothing running in it to realistically gauge him on.
But like I said he's a real contender and I'm glad I've backed him for both 2miles and 2m 4f.
He's my biggest winner in the supreme due to exchange prices
Not far off in the Ballymore

[Rooster Booster]

Now you've narrowed it down to 2 miles
The Royal Bond mainly.
And Facile Vega at Christmas.

I'd rank Facile better than today as the race had nothing running in it to realistically gauge him on.
But like I said he's a real contender and I'm glad I've backed him for both 2miles and 2m 4f.
He's my biggest winner in the supreme due to exchange prices
Not far off in the Ballymore

Ha ha the opposite of putting your money where your mouth is.... I like it

[robith]

Yeah I’m feeling incredibly protective of a few on here too. It’s great to have strength of conviction but I’ve found my greatest asset in this game to be my comfortable acceptance that I am wrong far more often than I am right and the importance of embracing the massively undervalued power of ...I DONT KNOW....

On GW my fairly irrelevant opinion is that you are underestimating him ...I think he is very good and not just visually. But like I say I’m usually wrong

A former boss of mine always advised "Strong opinions, lightly held" and that's the way to be in the antepost game. You need a POV, but you that POV needs to adjust to extra evidence.

Personally I think GW could be mega. I backed Ballymore after last year's fest and Willie's interviews, I hedged my bets on a Supreme stake with his 2m entries. It's now out of my hands, do as you will Willie

[Quevega]

Yeah I’m feeling incredibly protective of a few on here too. It’s great to have strength of conviction but I’ve found my greatest asset in this game to be my comfortable acceptance that I am wrong far more often than I am right and the importance of embracing the massively undervalued power of ...I DONT KNOW....

On GW my fairly irrelevant opinion is that you are underestimating him ...I think he is very good and not just visually. But like I say I’m usually wrong

Amen to that.

As I mentioned to Dan, my bets don't reflect my perceived negativity, and I've probably not been as negative as you think if you read back.
Mainly doubts around trainers intentions and the horses he's beat, and didn't beat last March.

I'm a boring guy to go racing with as most of the time you wouldn't know if I'd won or lost, although every now and then I let myself to go, and it usually ends in tears.

[FredFlintstone]

Where is this at mate?

Available on any decent podcast platform. They preview all the novices hurdles...

[Rooster Booster]

Amen to that.

As I mentioned to Dan, my bets don't reflect my perceived negativity, and I've probably not been as negative as you think if you read back.
Mainly doubts around trainers intentions and the horses he's beat, and didn't beat last March.

I'm a boring guy to go racing with as most of the time you wouldn't know if I'd won or lost, although every now and then I let myself to go, and it usually ends in tears.

I’m exactly the same with racing for 51 weeks of the year...pretty philosophical about it all but I let all the emotions spill out during one week in March ....it’s like a present to yourself ...a massive release of everything in your life thats been building up, with Cheltenham my release valve of choice.

im glad he’s a good winner for you I was getting a bit worried for a minute there.

[Rooster Booster]

A former boss of mine always advised "Strong opinions, lightly held" and that's the way to be in the antepost game. You need a POV, but you that POV needs to adjust to extra evidence.

Personally I think GW could be mega. I backed Ballymore after last year's fest and Willie's interviews, I hedged my bets on a Supreme stake with his 2m entries. It's now out of my hands, do as you will Willie

That’s a cool phrase....be a good forum motto...bet it sounds good in Latin

[Quevega]

A former boss of mine always advised "Strong opinions, lightly held" and that's the way to be in the antepost game. You need a POV, but you that POV needs to adjust to extra evidence.

Personally I think GW could be mega. I backed Ballymore after last year's fest and Willie's interviews, I hedged my bets on a Supreme stake with his 2m entries. It's now out of my hands, do as you will Willie

Another good point.
When you hold a strong view it's important to interpret new information as objectively as possible, without the gamblers common affliction of bias rearing it's head.
I'm playing devils advocate most of the time. For my own benefit to garner more information and also to make others think a bit.
I call it teamwork.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Now you've narrowed it down to 2 miles
The Royal Bond mainly.
And Facile Vega at Christmas.

I'd rank Facile better than today as the race had nothing running in it to realistically gauge him on.
But like I said he's a real contender and I'm glad I've backed him for both 2miles and 2m 4f.
He's my biggest winner in the supreme due to exchange prices
Not far off in the Ballymore

Not the Tolworth then??

[Quevega]

Almost certainly better than the potential crack (or cack?) novices trained in GB, where you can win a Grade 1 by 4-and-a-bit-lengths by beating a 125 rated Mare, and go 5/2 Ballymore Fav!!

Willie had a 125 rated horse in todays race vs Gaelic Warrior, got beat over 40 lengths.

Whilst I kind of agree with your first point. Especially at the prices all day long.
Ranking a Willie Mullins horses above a Paul Nicholls novice hurdler don't take much persuasion for most of us.

The second bit is very unlike you Sax !

Picking one horse out of a race as evidence to make a point vs another horse in a different race on very different ground is a stretch

"Hermes Allen beat a 129 rated horse by 40 lengths in the challow"

When people pluck stuff out like that we really could go on all day. It's Moot.
Otherwise are we saying they should both be rated 160+

And some of these novice races in Ireland have been incredibly difficult to judge, as there is even more signs that many are simply not even trying to compete.
It's never been this bad.
Willie power.

[Quevega]

Not the Tolworth then??

Nope
A good few pound inferior I'd say.

[Dandrew99]

Now you've narrowed it down to 2 miles
The Royal Bond mainly.
And Facile Vega at Christmas.

I'd rank Facile better than today as the race had nothing running in it to realistically gauge him on.
But like I said he's a real contender and I'm glad I've backed him for both 2miles and 2m 4f.
He's my biggest winner in the supreme due to exchange prices
Not far off in the Ballymore

Is beating Il Etait Temps by 4 lengths really better than what Gaelic Warrior did today? Like I say, fully expecting FV to beat it at the DRF, but not sure I'd agree with that and I'd be surprised if the RPRs didn't back that up.

Royal Bond I'd probably annoyingly agree with now I've thought about it a bit more, think I was probably just exaggerating a bit to make a point because everyone was so negative don't think there's much between them though.

I think he will be a big player in whichever race he goes in, got him covered in both too. I'd definitely prefer if he went Ballymore but really not sure which way he will go.