2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Istabraq]

What do we think the Irish handicapper will do with gaelic warrior after today

Up to 140ish given the ease of victory over blue sari?

Townend clearly could've won by a lot further

I don't follow Irish marks closely but I'd be surprised if he only went up 6lb for that.
Blue Sari is a 150 rated chaser and was never put in the race, my guess is there's a specific hurdle target they have in mind for that one.
At a guess I think he'd go up 10lb but that really is a guess...

Edit - hadn't realised the 4th today was only beaten 7l into 5th in Love Envoi's Mares Novice Hurdle win.
Beaten today 44l receiving 4lb from GW.
Unless the Irish 'capper is as stubborn as my ex wife it's going to be hard for him not to push GW up double digits...

[FinalFurlong91]

I don't follow Irish marks closely but I'd be surprised if he only went up 6lb for that.
Blue Sari is a 150 rated chaser and was never put in the race, my guess is there's a specific hurdle target they have in mind for that one.
At a guess I think he'd go up 10lb but that really is a guess...

Edit - hadn't realised the 4th today was only beaten 7l into 5th in Love Envoi's Mares Novice Hurdle win.
Beaten today 44l receiving 4lb from GW.
Unless the Irish 'capper is as stubborn as my ex wife it's going to be hard for him not to push GW up double digits...

Yes can definitely see that

His handicap mark has surely been blown

Blue sari maybe being primed for another go in the coral cup

[Istabraq]

Yes can definitely see that

His handicap mark has surely been blown

Blue sari maybe being primed for another go in the coral cup

GW into 3/1 for the Betfair Hurdle, it's clear he will be well in for that, but he was for the Fred Winter last year too...

[Quevega]

Yes can definitely see that

His handicap mark has surely been blown

Blue sari maybe being primed for another go in the coral cup

someone said earlier that BHA already had him at 144 before todays run. For the betfair hurdle weights.
So I'd say the betfair is a possible but handicaps look unlikely now.

[Dandrew99]

Surprised there's so much negativity about GW after that. Yes he jumped to the right but he smashed Blue Sari, who granted isn't a world beater but he's probably a better horse than anything IEP or FV has beaten, maybe with the exception of Il Etait Temps. That's probably going to be two 150+ performances back to back, certainly books him a place in a grade 1 novice hurdle for me. I'd probably go as far as to say that's the best novice performance so far in Ireland (I'm expecting FV to surpass that at the DRF though).

Still not sure where I stand in terms of Mullins bingo mind. Hoping the jumping right thing might make Willie lean Ballymore.

[Quevega]

GW into 3/1 for the Betfair Hurdle, it's clear he will be well in for that, but he was for the Fred Winter last year too...

149 if the betfair mark is correct, I've not checked myself but sure the poster had.

[Istabraq]

someone said earlier that BHA already had him at 144 before todays run. For the betfair hurdle weights.
So I'd say the betfair is a possible but handicaps look unlikely now.

Was it not 144 + 5 pen ? So 149 for Betfair Hurdle...

[Quevega]

Surprised there's so much negativity about GW after that. Yes he jumped to the right but he smashed Blue Sari, who granted isn't a world beater but he's probably a better horse than anything IEP or FV has beaten, maybe with the exception of Il Etait Temps. That's probably going to be two 150+ performances back to back, certainly books him a place in a grade 1 novice hurdle for me. I'd probably go as far as to say that's the best novice performance so far in Ireland (I'm expecting FV to surpass that at the DRF though).

Still not sure where I stand in terms of Mullins bingo mind. Hoping the jumping right thing might make Willie lean Ballymore.

Really ?
Beating blue sari is the best piece of novice form we've seen in Ireland ?
Come on Dan.
Blue Sari is not exactly a metronome is he ?
A JP owned handicapper ?

[Quevega]

Was it not 144 + 5 pen ? So 149 for Betfair Hurdle...

yeah see above. 144 before today + penalty.

[Istabraq]

149 if the betfair mark is correct, I've not checked myself but sure the poster had.

Yes, so you'd have to think the County is unlikely even off that mark, if he win the Betfair Hurdle as his price suggests he could easily find himself with a UK mark of 155.
He's clearly a G1 horse, I can't imagine Mullins will want to rush another run into his between Newbury and Cheltenham either, so surely Supreme or Ballymore...

[FinalFurlong91]

Surprised there's so much negativity about GW after that. Yes he jumped to the right but he smashed Blue Sari, who granted isn't a world beater but he's probably a better horse than anything IEP or FV has beaten, maybe with the exception of Il Etait Temps. That's probably going to be two 150+ performances back to back, certainly books him a place in a grade 1 novice hurdle for me. I'd probably go as far as to say that's the best novice performance so far in Ireland (I'm expecting FV to surpass that at the DRF though).

Still not sure where I stand in terms of Mullins bingo mind. Hoping the jumping right thing might make Willie lean Ballymore.

Blue sari wasn't really trying today

They had no interest in getting near GW

[Rooster Booster]

Really ?
Beating blue sari is the best piece of novice form we've seen in Ireland ?
Come on Dan.
Blue Sari is not exactly a metronome is he ?
A JP owned handicapper ?

Tbf it wouldn’t have mattered what he had done today you were never going to toot his horn were you Q...I’ve got used to lobos demonstrating the old adage that you need to tell people something 17 times before it sinks in but unlike you to so repeatedly give your view on the same horse ....did he tread on your foot on a stable tour or something

[FredFlintstone]

R Walsh put up IEP for his Ballymore pick on the Paddy Power Cheltenham podcast

[Quevega]

Tbf it wouldn’t have mattered what he had done today you were never going to toot his horn were you Q...I’ve got used to lobos demonstrating the old adage that you need to tell people something 17 times before it sinks in but unlike you to so repeatedly give your view on the same horse ....did he tread on your foot on a stable tour or something

Him not winning off 129 last March didn't go down too well.

Yeah, I suppose I like to quell the hype sometimes, try and calm some of these young un's down a little.

Seen many a lad crash and burn, literally, including one who tried to end it all with a nail gun (of all things) so I'll always be there to hold a spike next to any over inflated balloons as a word of warning.

I thought he looked smashing today and him being competitive in a grade 1 Cheltenham race took a decent step forward.

But definitely not the best novice performance of the season so far, probably not even in the top 10 IMO.

I would put him in the top 5 on visuals though.

[Dandrew99]

Really ?
Beating blue sari is the best piece of novice form we've seen in Ireland ?
Come on Dan.
Blue Sari is not exactly a metronome is he ?
A JP owned handicapper ?

Should have said over 2 miles...

Not sure beating Il Etait Temps by 4 lengths or The Model Kingdom by 6 lengths is better than that? What would you have as the strongest piece of 2 mile form so far? None of them have particularly beaten anything. Like I say, I do expect Facile Vega to beat it at the DRF.