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Does is not seem like they are going to have a tilt at the county or martin pipe with G Warrior.
They haven't ran him in a graded race this season despite his experience.
The new course on the Friday will be better suited.
He will be one of the very few of the Mullins novices that can qualify for a Cheltenham handicap
Correct IMO.
Every season we get one or two horses where for backers, it seems the blinkers have been applied.
I'm not sure it's a certain blind alley with this horse to be fair, but it's looking that way, I've stopped halfway down for a piss and a thoughtful moment.
I would say there are a fair number of mid trip options for him. If he was the number one Ballymore horse he would have taken precident over say running Imapire Et Passe at Naas, or Grangeclare West at Navan at the end of November.
I wonder if he'll be one of Willies back ups for the Supreme now, should he win today, then go on to the Betfair Hurdle.
Yeah maybe, although I'd say usually his Bartlett horses are the ones that start over 2m4f+. Even Gaillard Du Mesnil ran over 2 miles, and he's an absolute boat. It's definitely some weird race planning, I'm not quite sure what to make of it myself.
Could just be like last season where he doesn't have a number one Ballymore horse, until he decides to divert one there. Or he's messing around for a nice handicap mark. Or maybe he's just not that good. But he's had plenty of entries over the mid trip to make me think that Willie isn't overly concerned about him stepping up. A run over a mid trip would have been a positive for sure, but I think running over 2 miles today doesn't suddenly mean he's a Supreme horse either, especially with the market moves from PP.
Yeah maybe, although I'd say usually his Bartlett horses are the ones that start over 2m4f+. Even Gaillard Du Mesnil ran over 2 miles, and he's an absolute boat. It's definitely some weird race planning, I'm not quite sure what to make of it myself.
Could just be like last season where he doesn't have a number one Ballymore horse, until he decides to divert one there. Or he's messing around for a nice handicap mark. Or maybe he's just not that good. But he's had plenty of entries over the mid trip to make me think that Willie isn't overly concerned about him stepping up. A run over a mid trip would have been a positive for sure, but I think running over 2 miles today doesn't suddenly mean he's a Supreme horse either, especially with the market moves from PP.
I don't think Gaillard Du Mesnil did, did he? Maybe getting confused with Ganapathi who ran in the same colours?
I would go with either the handicap route, or he isn't that good, but I imagine it will be the handicap route myself, despite just backing him for the Supreme on the exchanges
I don't think Gaillard Du Mesnil did, did he? Maybe getting confused with Ganapathi who ran in the same colours?
I would go with either the handicap route, or he isn't that good, but I imagine it will be the handicap route myself, despite just backing him for the Supreme on the exchanges
Oh yeah you're right. I blame Saxon Warrior I was looking at his Willie Mullins diary and it says his second run was over 2 miles, but it was over 2m4f.
I'm not sure why he would be running again at all if he was going for a handicap, maybe race fitness I guess, struggle to see him going for a handicap if he wins well today though. I did see your post and thought the Supreme angle is a nice trading opportunity and followed you in on that
The inclusion of Blue Sari today holds the key IMO. I just can't decide which way it points. He's a fairly exposed horse over hurdles. OR of 138 when coming down late in the Coral Cup in 2021. Blew hot and cold last year over fences, but I doubt the handicapper would change his OR much either way. So if he runs any sort of race and Gaelic beats him all ends up, that's the end of the handicap plot surely? Alternatively, if he beats him a couple of lengths, Willie has a very good argument to say he's a 140 horse. Thing is, I can't escape the feeling the British Handicapper feels he got done a bit last year, slightly by GW but definitely by State Man. So I think the Mullins' Graded Horse in Handicapper's clothing will get extra tax this year anyway.
The inclusion of Blue Sari today holds the key IMO. I just can't decide which way it points. He's a fairly exposed horse over hurdles. OR of 138 when coming down late in the Coral Cup in 2021. Blew hot and cold last year over fences, but I doubt the handicapper would change his OR much either way. So if he runs any sort of race and Gaelic beats him all ends up, that's the end of the handicap plot surely? Alternatively, if he beats him a couple of lengths, Willie has a very good argument to say he's a 140 horse. Thing is, I can't escape the feeling the British Handicapper feels he got done a bit last year, slightly by GW but definitely by State Man. So I think the Mullins' Graded Horse in Handicapper's clothing will get extra tax this year anyway.
Yep that's guaranteed, especially in regards to GWARRIOR.
Yeah, agree. Whether the Warrior ends up in a graded festival novice race, I don't know (hope so for my pocket) - but there's little chance of the 'capper being anything other than punitive after last year is there?
Definitely encouragement for graded races today for Gaelic and the mark given for the betfair further cements that I reckon.
10lb higher than his Irish mate for that maiden win is a big difference of opinion
I'd imagine it depends how he comes out of todays race but if he came out of it well they might be tempted to go over to Newbury. 87k to the winner is a big pot and if he was Supreme worthy he'd have to be winning it. My Tent Or Yours ran off 149 in the Betfair and then got touched off by Champagne Fever in the Supreme.
Long bitcoin, long gold, long silver, long g/s opening day Cheltenham Festival
Agree with the other comments about him still jumping to the right. Would have to be a huge concern when you are taking such short prices. He's learnt absolutely nothing this season in my opinion, and that's another negative in the column. One of those I think might win, but happy to leave him unbacked. He's always going to be over bet more than most.
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