2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Saxon Warrior]

Don't get me wrong, I do think the Royal Bond was better than the past couple of years renewals, but it's never a race I get overly excited about.

Only strong renewal in recent years for me was when Envoi Allen won it, Abacadabras second and Darver Star in third. That held up well at the festival too.

Agree with that.

[CJW]

I appreciate the form may make it look like a franking for Marine Nationale but I don't see it that way.

Yep, totally agree. Game of opinions though and I respect others too.

[Benjy23]

I mean it obviously has to be a franking of the form like. How big is up for debate of course but a bit odd to see it as anything other than a positive. Champ Kiely and Irish Point being beaten out of sight would've been better for the Royal Bond form than them finishing 1-2 in the Lowlor's?

Still expect Vega to comfortably win the Supreme mind.

[CJW]

Paddy make GWarrior just shorter odds for the Ballymore, over the lawlors winner, not sure how I feel about that, and 16s for the Albert bartlett..

[Brooksie]

Can't quite make out why people think Champ Kiely is a 3 miler. Had plenty of speed to beat Brazil at Tipperary. The way he cruised in and winged the last 2 I'd say he looked to have plenty of gears to me. If they went for a race other than the Ballymore I'd say it would be more likely the supreme. He'd most certainly have the pace to go hard from the front imo.

Maybe I'm missing something but Gaelic Warrior couldn't beat Brazil getting weight and Champ Kiely made Brazil look slow off levels? Is the Gaelic Warrior angle just based on the 86 length victory and the belief he's just much better this year? Don't get me wrong he did look very impressive, but it would be nice to see him do that again against real opposition first.

[Saxon Warrior]

If Gaelic Warrior gets the declaration in the small race this Thursday, over 2M, it was look like exactly the same prep in Novice Hurdles that Appreciate It is getting in Novice Chases.

A slow bulld-up, prior to taking in something more challenging.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I mean it obviously has to be a franking of the form like. How big is up for debate of course but a bit odd to see it as anything other than a positive. Champ Kiely and Irish Point being beaten out of sight would've been better for the Royal Bond form than them finishing 1-2 in the Lowlor's?

Still expect Vega to comfortably win the Supreme mind.

Absolutely. Of course it’s a positive for a race if the beaten horses come out and finish 1 and 2 in a grade 1.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Just caught up on the Lawlors of Naas today.

Made it an easy decision to cash out the Grangeclare West roll up for profit.

Now leaves the door open for Gaelic Warrior and Impaire Et Passe in the Ballymore, IMO. Not having IEP as a Supreme horse.

Thought Champ Kiely dug in well, certainly more a staying performance than a Ballymore type win. Irish Point and the rest of them in behind likely handicap types.

I appreciate the form may make it look like a franking for Marine Nationale but I don't see it that way, just on the basis that Champ Kiely is a Bartlett type for me. I don't see how a 4 length win over a potential festival 3 miler is Supreme winning form. Champ Kiely also reversed form easily enough with Irish Point.

I can't have Hermes Allen. I missed the price on him and I'm not being suckered into backing him at his current price off the back of a Challow Hurdle win.

It's going to be a case of Gaelic Warrior or Impaire Et Passe now for me, all the way to the festival.

So you can’t have HA because he won the Challow effortlessly.
Funny, watching that made me wish I had backed him, and made me think of ways of getting him onside.
As for the lawlors today, and the chances of MN in the Supreme, not sure we could disagree more to be honest.
As usual, time will tell.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Can't quite make out why people think Champ Kiely is a 3 miler. Had plenty of speed to beat Brazil at Tipperary. The way he cruised in and winged the last 2 I'd say he looked to have plenty of gears to me. If they went for a race other than the Ballymore I'd say it would be more likely the supreme. He'd most certainly have the pace to go hard from the front imo.

Maybe I'm missing something but Gaelic Warrior couldn't beat Brazil getting weight and Champ Kiely made Brazil look slow off levels? Is the Gaelic Warrior angle just based on the 86 length victory and the belief he's just much better this year? Don't get me wrong he did look very impressive, but it would be nice to see him do that again against real opposition first.

Personally I think people are thinking what they want to think.
Either that or I’m totally wrong to have the opinions I have.
Although that has been known!!

[ComplyOrDie]

So you can’t have HA because he won the Challow effortlessly.
Funny, watching that made me wish I had backed him, and made me think of ways of getting him onside.
As for the lawlors today, and the chances of MN in the Supreme, not sure we could disagree more to be honest.
As usual, time will tell.

I always choose to avoid Challow Hurdle winners, however, would I be happy if I had backed him at bigger odds, absolutely, because I would have a E/W shout.

My main concern was his current price having said I missed the bigger prices about him. 3/1 after a Challow Hurdle win, we were here two seasons back with Bravemansgame, and I think Bravemansgame is a better horse and still only managed 3rd. Champ also won the Challow Hurdle in convincing enough fashion and he finished 2nd to City Island. I'm not sure what it is about the Challow but Champ is a far better horse than City Island and still failed to win the race.

[charlie]

So you can't have HA because he won the Challow effortlessly.
Funny, watching that made me wish I had backed him, and made me think of ways of getting him onside.
As for the lawlors today, and the chances of MN in the Supreme, not sure we could disagree more to be honest.
As usual, time will tell.

Challow winners are 0/20 at Cheltenham. BMG ran to a higher level in a better race with stronger form and was smashed in the Ballymore. Stage Star did the same and didn't even finish. HA could be the anomaly, but COD stressed can't back at the price, not that he's un bankable. His current price is very poor IMO. Yes, Hermes Allen was effortless, with a 125 rated horse 4L in behind. Setting aside it being an atrocious Grade 1 and better winners still failing at the festival, PN strike rate with novice hurdlers at the festival is 3/46 in 25 years. All of that would leave pause for thought at 6's or 7's and he's 11/4!

[Carnage at Taunton]

I always choose to avoid Challow Hurdle winners, however, would I be happy if I had backed him at bigger odds, absolutely, because I would have a E/W shout.

My main concern was his current price having said I missed the bigger prices about him. 3/1 after a Challow Hurdle win, we were here two seasons back with Bravemansgame, and I think Bravemansgame is a better horse and still only managed 3rd. Champ also won the Challow Hurdle in convincing enough fashion and he finished 2nd to City Island. I'm not sure what it is about the Challow but Champ is a far better horse than City Island and still failed to win the race.

None of that has a bearing on this season’s race and the chances of HA.
Fair enough you missed bigger prices and he’s too short for you, no problem, I’m in the same boat.
Difference is, I don’t give a monkeys about the Challow,Champ, BMG etc, just what I saw watching HA in his races thus far.

I will find a way to have him onside that suits my betting rules …..hopefully!!

[ComplyOrDie]

Can't quite make out why people think Champ Kiely is a 3 miler. Had plenty of speed to beat Brazil at Tipperary. The way he cruised in and winged the last 2 I'd say he looked to have plenty of gears to me. If they went for a race other than the Ballymore I'd say it would be more likely the supreme. He'd most certainly have the pace to go hard from the front imo.

Champ Kiely's racing style says stamina to me, although he is keen, which would be a cause for concern over further. He's always doing it from the front end. When it came to a Grade 1 over 2m (and IMO not even a top end G1) he couldn't keep it up. He beat Brazil but he's rated 142! Ultimately it tells me he's not a G1 2 miler, so if he's not ending up in the Ballymore it will be the Bartlett or even a handicap, for me.

I don't think that was the strongest renewal of the Lawlors of Naas for me, though time will tell for this.

I think some in behind CK will turn out to be better horses than him in future years. Grangeclare West, being one, looks to need further and is a chaser in the making as well.

[ComplyOrDie]

None of that has a bearing on this season’s race and the chances of HA.
Fair enough you missed bigger prices and he’s too short for you, no problem, I’m in the same boat.
Difference is, I don’t give a monkeys about the Challow,Champ, BMG etc, just what I saw watching HA in his races thus far.

I will find a way to have him onside that suits my betting rules …..hopefully!!

That's fair enough, all your opinion, which you're entitled too, but I won't be looking at getting him onside now, although the Ballymore is looking piss weak, in terms of what I'd usually like to be finding in the market.

I'd usually go for a decent p2p'er with a turn of foot, and we have none of them this season. Hermes Allen will try and do it from the front, or up with the pace probably.

He might prove good enough in a weak year. Time will tell.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Challow winners are 0/20 at Cheltenham. BMG ran to a higher level in a better race with stronger form and was smashed in the Ballymore. Stage Star did the same and didn't even finish. HA could be the anomaly, but COD stressed can't back at the price, not that he's un bankable. His current price is very poor IMO. Yes, Hermes Allen was effortless, with a 125 rated horse 4L in behind. Setting aside it being an atrocious Grade 1 and better winners still failing at the festival, PN strike rate with novice hurdlers at the festival is 3/46 in 25 years. All of that would leave pause for thought at 6's or 7's and he's 11/4!

Yep, aware of all that.
He’s a horse that none of us know how good he is or could be.
Ive not seen a better novice to my eyes over the Ballymore distance this season.