2023 Novice Hurdlers

[darlojim]

I know Ricci has a racing manager, but I'm really not sure either of them have much say so of where his horses go. Yes, I'm sure Willie speaks to them, but I do think it ends up in the hands of Willie and not what Ricci thinks. On this basis I'll be surprised if Gaelic Warrior goes anywhere but the Ballymore, provided he proves good enough.

Joe Chambers also replied to Icy saying his hcap Mark was 134.

[ComplyOrDie]

Joe Chambers also replied to Icy saying his hcap Mark was 134.

I guess they haven't asked the BHA what his mark is? That's only his Irish rating, I can't imagine that will be what he's rated in England.

[ComplyOrDie]

6-1 Fav for the pipe.

I'll be surprised if he gets in, but he may do with a couple of shoddy displays before the festival.

I know he's rated 134 in Ireland, I can't see that being the case in England though, surely?

[darlojim]

I guess they haven't asked the BHA what his mark is? That's only his Irish rating, I can't imagine that will be what he's rated in England.

Yeah I'd say that Irish mate, wondering if they're thinking of scooping a pot first.

[Quevega]

I'll be surprised if he gets in, but he may do with a couple of shoddy displays before the festival.

I know he's rated 134 in Ireland, I can't see that being the case in England though, surely?

Why not ?
What's Brazil done ?

Related double Brazil - County & Gaelic Pipe

[ComplyOrDie]

Why not ?
What's Brazil done ?

Related double Brazil - County & Gaelic Pipe

Won a Grade 3, beating 147 rated Fil Dor, placed in a Grade 3, behind Champ Kiely, who finished 4 lengths off of winning a Grade 1 (Royal Bond), is that 'nothing form' then?

I would give that Brazil last race was poor, but it was a 2 horse race, these can sometimes turn up the 'wrong' result because of how they are run.

Gaelic Warrior was 137 for the Boodles, he's not going to be 134 off the back of a 80+ length victory, even taking into account it being a 'nothing race' and whether the Irish handicapper has put him up or not.

[Benjy23]

Already looking forward to Gaelic Warrior being beaten in a handicap at a short price again

[Lobos]

6-1 Fav for the pipe.

You've backed it haven't you......

He'd go off very short wouldn't he.

[Quevega]

I Think the Gaelic Warrior fanboys would do well to look at the form in behind him the last day.
I think the RPR might get adjusted.
Turns out the ones in behind keep getting beat by 80+ lengths.
I've backed him myself before you all start.

[Quevega]

Won a Grade 3, beating 147 rated Fil Dor, placed in a Grade 3, behind Champ Kiely, who finished 4 lengths off of winning a Grade 1 (Royal Bond), is that 'nothing form' then?

I would give that Brazil last race was poor, but it was a 2 horse race, these can sometimes turn up the 'wrong' result because of how they are run.

Gaelic Warrior was 137 for the Boodles, he's not going to be 134 off the back of a 80+ length victory, even taking into account it being a 'nothing race' and whether the Irish handicapper has put him up or not.

He's rated 142.
He gave Gaelic 8lb.
And I got B in O-level maths.

[DenmanSacre]

If AB doesn't win the Tolworth would you expect the winner to head the English challenge in the Supreme?

If AB doesn't win the Tolworth, then I'd expect the winner to be the best of the English going into the Supreme.

I'm not overly keen on Rare Edition. I think Epatante and Constitution Hill ran below their Newcastle form and so time comparisons to Constitution Hill don't hold much water for me. I'd assume he will have another run before Cheltenham but he would need to put up a big performance to be the better prospect of Authorised Speed or Tahmuras if they win on Saturday.

But I think AB wins this before having a great chance in the Supreme.

I don't think FV has proven enough yet to scare off the others and you could argue Willie has a couple that could challenge FV in Gaelic Warrior and Impaire et Passe (possibly others that I can't think of), plus the trainer confidence behind Marine Nationale should be noted albeit I'm not sure if he knows what a Supreme horse is like to train (I can't remember how involved he was with Our Conor besides buying him after the Triumph).

[ComplyOrDie]

He's rated 142.
He gave Gaelic 8lb.
And I got B in O-level maths.

I only got a C so that explains why I'm always wrong on here

I actually forgot about the handicap weights

[ComplyOrDie]

The main reason why I've held off Rare Edition is because of the figures he's been putting up.

It's clear to see he's improving, and visually he's looked good enough, but he's now run 6 times (including p2p's) so has enough experience that he should be putting in better than 144 RPR's, plus he's only rated 138 officially. That is miles off what is required really.

[TCH29]

If AB doesn't win the Tolworth, then I'd expect the winner to be the best of the English going into the Supreme.

I'm not overly keen on Rare Edition. I think Epatante and Constitution Hill ran below their Newcastle form and so time comparisons to Constitution Hill don't hold much water for me. I'd assume he will have another run before Cheltenham but he would need to put up a big performance to be the better prospect of Authorised Speed or Tahmuras if they win on Saturday.

But I think AB wins this before having a great chance in the Supreme.

I don't think FV has proven enough yet to scare off the others and you could argue Willie has a couple that could challenge FV in Gaelic Warrior and Impaire et Passe (possibly others that I can't think of), plus the trainer confidence behind Marine Nationale should be noted albeit I'm not sure if he knows what a Supreme horse is like to train (I can't remember how involved he was with Our Conor besides buying him after the Triumph).

Interesting, Denman.

Having watched both Authorised Speed and Rare Edition in the flesh, I would say that Rare Edition looked the much more polished horse and put in a better display.

Personally, I think Authorised Speed should go in the Ballymore not the Supreme. I think his jumping is very suspect and the quicker gallop of the Supreme will put him under too much pressure. What he did show at Sandown is a huge engine up a stiff finish on soft. For me, he’s perfectly suited to the Ballymore. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins the Tolworth, at all, as the course clearly suits, but I wouldn’t like him in the Supreme.

I thought Rare Edition looked very tidy, won very professionally and at 25s is completely the wrong price for an unbeaten horse over obstacles who is completely unexposed having won how he likes 3 times. Is he as good as the best Irish novices? The evidence isn’t there yet, so caution advised, but equally there is little firm evidence to say he isn’t.

And, with novices (and bumper horses), I like big winning margins. Trying to gauge the form of horses in behind who only have a couple of runs under their belts in risky business. Yes, it’s easy to throw out the “he only beat trees” line. But I think hindsight tells off that the quality of a race isn’t really known for 1-2 years, so basing your analysis off that with novices is risky. Rare Edition has one very easily 3 times, all with decent clock times and sectionals. This line of thought is one of the reasons I’m unsure about Marine Nationale. His wins, whilst relatively comfortable, are a little too slim in margin for my liking to make me think he can win a Supreme.

Anyway, I’d say Rare Edition has more in the book, so to speak, than Authorised Speed so far.

I think Luccia probably beats them all in England, btw, but Hendo will bottle the Supreme, I’m sure.

[AaronLad]

Interesting, Denman.

Having watched both Authorised Speed and Rare Edition in the flesh, I would say that Rare Edition looked the much more polished horse and put in a better display.

Personally, I think Authorised Speed should go in the Ballymore not the Supreme. I think his jumping is very suspect and the quicker gallop of the Supreme will put him under too much pressure. What he did show at Sandown is a huge engine up a stiff finish on soft. For me, he’s perfectly suited to the Ballymore. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins the Tolworth, at all, as the course clearly suits, but I wouldn’t like him in the Supreme.

I thought Rare Edition looked very tidy, won very professionally and at 25s is completely the wrong price for an unbeaten horse over obstacles who is completely unexposed having won how he likes 3 times. Is he as good as the best Irish novices? The evidence isn’t there yet, so caution advised, but equally there is little firm evidence to say he isn’t.

And, with novices (and bumper horses), I like big winning margins. Trying to gauge the form of horses in behind who only have a couple of runs under their belts in risky business. Yes, it’s easy to throw out the “he only beat trees” line. But I think hindsight tells off that the quality of a race isn’t really known for 1-2 years, so basing your analysis off that with novices is risky. Rare Edition has one very easily 3 times, all with decent clock times and sectionals. This line of thought is one of the reasons I’m unsure about Marine Nationale. His wins, whilst relatively comfortable, are a little too slim in margin for my liking to make me think he can win a Supreme.

Anyway, I’d say Rare Edition has more in the book, so to speak, than Authorised Speed so far.

I think Luccia probably beats them all in England, btw, but Hendo will bottle the Supreme, I’m sure.

Excellent post,