2023 Gold Cup

[riccirich]

A bit of confidence brewing on here behind BMG Interesting.....

There should be more confidence in him than there is imo, can’t really understand the people who are writing him off.

He’s the best jumper in the race, travels on the bridle, saw out the 3m strongly in the king George where he was going to beat last years banc winner readily had he stayed up, and is trained by a man who knows how to win a gold cup.

people seem to be not a fan either because he didn’t win the Ballymore two years ago, or because of his poor runs at aintree, both not the strongest of reasons imo. Denman was beat in the Ballymore too, but went on to achieve a lot more than the horse who beat him, I don’t think Nicholls is too worried about what these types do as novice hurdlers. And it seems people can easily write off sir gerhard two flops at Punchestown, but use bmg aintree runs as a reason to not be a fan.

i don’t think there’s any conclusive evidence that he won’t stay, that he’ll be outclassed by the Irish, or he won’t handle the track.

[Carnage at Taunton]

There should be more confidence in him than there is imo, can’t really understand the people who are writing him off.

He’s the best jumper in the race, travels on the bridle, saw out the 3m strongly in the king George where he was going to beat last years banc winner readily had he stayed up, and is trained by a man who knows how to win a gold cup.

people seem to be not a fan either because he didn’t win the Ballymore two years ago, or because of his poor runs at aintree, both not the strongest of reasons imo. Denman was beat in the Ballymore too, but went on to achieve a lot more than the horse who beat him, I don’t think Nicholls is too worried about what these types do as novice hurdlers. And it seems people can easily write off sir gerhard two flops at Punchestown, but use bmg aintree runs as a reason to not be a fan.

i don’t think there’s any conclusive evidence that he won’t stay, that he’ll be outclassed by the Irish, or he won’t handle the track.

Yep, totally agree with all that.
Closer it gets the more i really like him for this.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Are the ones who are saying that they can't back GDC at the current price the same ones who thought that he wasn't value at 7/2 before the Durkan?

The horse doesn't know his price. He wins if he gets round.

sorry, error post

[Carnage at Taunton]

Are the ones who are saying that they can't back GDC at the current price the same ones who thought that he wasn't value at 7/2 before the Durkan?

The horse doesn't know his price. He wins if he gets round.

He wins if he gets round??….possibly he does.
How anyone can be so bullish in this race is beyond me.
Maybe you can help me understand?

[archie]

For me, absolutely YES.
I like the confidence though archie

However, It's very contradictory from yourself based on the many occasions you've been against backing short priced horses antepost.
2-1 available now on the machines is a lot better bet than 7-2 before the Durkan.
You could have got 11-4 NRNB and on the machines (5-2ish) after his Irish Gold cup win also.

And - Barring major absentees, anyone with a knowledge of the markets can see that the bookies will easily be able to offer bigger than 2-1 on the day, or after declarations.

The 7-2 may have worked out in some seasons, if the race had fallen apart, but this year it hasn't.

I've said several times that I have backed GDC with all my free bets up to the turn of the year and that I wouldn't be backing anything with cash until nrnb.

The "anyone with a knowledge of the markets" comment is a bit condescending and unworthy of you. If nothing major happens between now and the race, I don't see anyone offering 2/1 or longer apart from an on the day special with severely restricted stakes.

Seems to me that those who are crabbing him are the ones who missed out and are now thrashing around trying to justify it to themselves more than anything else. At this stage it's all about opinions and, in the end, they may be right about the result. However, I've been watching Gold Cups for about 50 years and I'm more excited about this horse than any since Burrough Hill Lad.

[archie]

He wins if he gets round??….possibly he does.
How anyone can be so bullish in this race is beyond me.
Maybe you can help me understand?

I should have added the all important "in my opinion". Will edit now.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I should have added the all important "in my opinion". Will edit now.

Fair enough it’s your opinion, but for me that’s a bit dismissive of what looks to me a fair quality field he’s up against.

[Quevega]

I've said several times that I have backed GDC with all my free bets up to the turn of the year and that I wouldn't be backing anything with cash until nrnb.

The "anyone with a knowledge of the markets" comment is a bit condescending and unworthy of you. If nothing major happens between now and the race, I don't see anyone offering 2/1 or longer apart from an on the day special with severely restricted stakes.

Seems to me that those who are crabbing him are the ones who missed out and are now thrashing around trying to justify it to themselves more than anything else. At this stage it's all about opinions and, in the end, they may be right about the result. However, I've been watching Gold Cups for about 50 years and I'm more excited about this horse than any since Burrough Hill Lad.

Freebets aside, it still goes against your normal theory.

But I can see why the confidence is there, as like I said, I wouldn't disagree.
It's just the likely make up of the race points to him being a bigger price IMO.
I'm not crabbing his price because I'm not on either. It's an assessment of his chances in the race itself now we are nearing the day itself.

On the markets topic, it was not meant to come across like that. But IMO it's obvious, based on my experience.
There are factors that could make either of us correct in the end on this "above or below 2-1", but on balance at the moment I'd say he is layable for the bookies.
May depend on how the festival goes of course.

[Quevega]

I've said several times that I have backed GDC with all my free bets up to the turn of the year and that I wouldn't be backing anything with cash until nrnb.

The "anyone with a knowledge of the markets" comment is a bit condescending and unworthy of you. If nothing major happens between now and the race, I don't see anyone offering 2/1 or longer apart from an on the day special with severely restricted stakes.

Seems to me that those who are crabbing him are the ones who missed out and are now thrashing around trying to justify it to themselves more than anything else. At this stage it's all about opinions and, in the end, they may be right about the result. However, I've been watching Gold Cups for about 50 years and I'm more excited about this horse than any since Burrough Hill Lad.

I had one of my biggest ever bets on Don Cossack the day he won his Gold cup, but the depth of his race and this one is miles apart IMO.

[Istabraq]

Have to say, I got with Conflated and Stattler very early (March 22) and took advantage of the 12/1 A Plus Tard after his Haydock disappointment, it's a position I have been very happy with in the race, however, I am looking to cover GDC because he could just be that good.
2/1 in the ring and I'll be getting involved...

[archie]

Freebets aside, it still goes against your normal theory.

But I can see why the confidence is there, as like I said, I wouldn't disagree.
It's just the likely make up of the race points to him being a bigger price IMO.
I'm not crabbing his price because I'm not on either. It's an assessment of his chances in the race itself now we are nearing the day itself.

On the markets topic, it was not meant to come across like that. But IMO it's obvious, based on my experience.
There are factors that could make either of us correct in the end on this "above or below 2-1", but on balance at the moment I'd say he is layable for the bookies.
May depend on how the festival goes of course.

My normal theory is to apply a factor to the current price that takes into account the things that might prevent a horse making it to the start line. If that takes it below what is a feasible SP then I tend to avoid the bet. If we're talking November prices, that factor would nearly always be a reduction in price by at least a half so 7/2 down to 6/4 is fair enough in those terms especially for free bets. It's long range prices of 2/1 or less that I struggle to justify. I have to add that I bet strictly for fun and don't use the exchanges. Clearly, if you're building a book you might do things differently.

Leaving out Shishkin, I'm listing the top 10 in the market with b365 prices and my own assessment as things stand in brackets.

11/8 (6/4) GDC
13/2 (6/1) Bravemansgame
7/1 (9/1) APT
8/1 (9/1) Noble Yeats
8/1 (9/1) Stattler
10/1 (9/1) Conflated
12/1 (16/1) Ahoy Senor
12/1 (16/1) Protektorat
20/1 (20/1) Minella Indo
20/1 (25/1) Hewick

b365 have an excessive 124.2% book whereas mine is 114.4% and I'd allow for another 5-10% for the rags. I'd be interested in how others might mark it up to get the same sort of over-round.

[Quevega]

My normal theory is to apply a factor to the current price that takes into account the things that might prevent a horse making it to the start line. If that takes it below what is a feasible SP then I tend to avoid the bet. If we're talking November prices, that factor would nearly always be a reduction in price by at least a half so 7/2 down to 6/4 is fair enough in those terms especially for free bets. It's long range prices of 2/1 or less that I struggle to justify. I have to add that I bet strictly for fun and don't use the exchanges. Clearly, if you're building a book you might do things differently.

Leaving out Shishkin, I'm listing the top 10 in the market with b365 prices and my own assessment as things stand in brackets.

11/8 (6/4) GDC
13/2 (6/1) Bravemansgame
7/1 (9/1) APT
8/1 (9/1) Noble Yeats
8/1 (9/1) Stattler
10/1 (9/1) Conflated
12/1 (16/1) Ahoy Senor
12/1 (16/1) Protektorat
20/1 (20/1) Minella Indo
20/1 (25/1) Hewick

b365 have an excessive 124.2% book whereas mine is 114.4% and I'd allow for another 5-10% for the rags. I'd be interested in how others might mark it up to get the same sort of over-round.

Impossible to calculate, but the over round percentage across all bookmakers once declarations are made will be significantly shorter.

GDC might not be, but if he does remain around the 6/4 mark then some of the others will be available at a few points higher I'd imagine.

However, You can get reasonably significant amounts on GDC at 2-1 on the exchange right now, and this has hovered around this for a while now, so 2-1 after decs is very likely, and I think if they've had a fair week (they usually do) they'll try and get him beat.

The NRNB prices factor in absentees, so they are obviously around 20-25% on average shorter than reality (bookies have to do this), although this race is much more solid in terms of likely runners than a lot of others, so the differential may be smaller.

We'll see soon enough anyhow, just guessing as best I can, and I'm often wrong.

[Eggs]

….Irish 1-2-3 is 3-1 Hills.

[Lostinleith]

….Irish 1-2-3 is 3-1 Hills.

They were offering 5s a while back so that must have been popular.

[Mighty]

With all this rain about, and the chances of soft or heavy ground if it really chucks it down, I’ve had an EW nibble at Royal Pagaille at 50/1. He’s a proper stayer and finished off ok in the KG, and that price is surely too big if it is properly soft ground.