2023 Gold Cup

[archie]

yes it was, but the bit you’ve missed out is below.
What distance is a cooee by the way ?

Over 3m2f at Cheltenham he doesn't get within cooee of those at the head of the betting.

If we're talking just GDC, cooee would be in the region of 10 lengths?

[archie]

The problem with Bravemansgame is that we just don't know how or if he'll act on the track. It's a huge extrapolation from hurdles to fences (and old course to new) as we found with Kemboy. I much prefer course experience in horses I back for the Gold Cup and although some, like Coneygree, make it a preference rather than a rule, it is a reasonable stat as an indicator. If you like, I see course experience as a tick but lack of course experience as neutral rather than an actual negative. As it stands, I'd incline to him being more Silviniaco Conti than Denman.

[FinalFurlong91]

The problem with Bravemansgame is that we just don't know how or if he'll act on the track. It's a huge extrapolation from hurdles to fences (and old course to new) as we found with Kemboy. I much prefer course experience in horses I back for the Gold Cup and although some, like Coneygree, make it a preference rather than a rule, it is a reasonable stat as an indicator. If you like, I see course experience as a tick but lack of course experience as neutral rather than an actual negative. As it stands, I'd incline to him being more Silviniaco Conti than Denman.

I'd be more worried about the decline in his form in the spring than the track myself

nicholls commented in his stable tour that he was coming in light in the spring

can Nicholls stop him from being over the top in march and April?

That's a big question mark

[charlie]

I see that Monkfish has been taken out at the latest stage.

Still don't understand the love for Stattler based on Saturday. They went a decent pace (Rachael thought she possibly went too quickly in an attempt to burn off the younger brigade), yet Stattler was outpaced between the last 2 crossing the last fence about 3 lengths down. By the line he was 8 lengths down and it wasn't reducing. Official ratings kept at 175 and 163 respectively which feels about right.

Barring a fall, GDC simply doesn't lose to any of Saturday's rivals. As Bravemansgame seems to go better on flat tracks, you'd say that Conflated is the only realistic threat.

I think your assessment is spot on. Fury Road went into the Savills Chase having run and was well backed on the day, so I think he's a fair yardstick for a comparison between Conflated and GDC. Could argue he'd have finished even closer to GDC if not for the mistake. GDC looks a monster so it's more hope than expectation with Conflated at this stage.

[Rooster Booster]

The problem with Bravemansgame is that we just don't know how or if he'll act on the track. It's a huge extrapolation from hurdles to fences (and old course to new) as we found with Kemboy. I much prefer course experience in horses I back for the Gold Cup and although some, like Coneygree, make it a preference rather than a rule, it is a reasonable stat as an indicator. If you like, I see course experience as a tick but lack of course experience as neutral rather than an actual negative. As it stands, I'd incline to him being more Silviniaco Conti than Denman.

How would you categorise Al Boum Photo...you could argue he wasn’t just neutral on the track he was negative. I understand your view however, I don’t agree with it but understand it.

[Frankely My Dear]

Get your point on a KG winner but GDC by no means a certainty, not like Presenting Percy anyway :-)

A Plus Tard (not ideal prep), Minella Indo (Quality horse, may be one year too old), Protecktorat (Is he good enough), Ahoy Senor (Loves Cheltenham, but dodgy jumper) , Noble Yeats (GC too short a trip?) plus the KG winner BMG (Just maybe? Is he quite good enough?). Any of these could, and I stress could, usurp GDC. He is by no means a banker.

Unfortunately not a certainty although my AP bets hope that he is! I think your comments on his potential rivals indicate he may well turn out to be, unless Conflated steps up. I have him at big odds but mainly because I think he'll place. I think GDC just did what he needed to at the DRF and imo we'll see his true potential at the big one. My pocket's arse will still be twitching for the next 5 weeks

[archie]

How would you categorise Al Boum Photo...you could argue he wasn’t just neutral on the track he was negative. I understand your view however, I don’t agree with it but understand it.

I always allow jumping errors if they're a one off. ABP jumped fine in the main in the RSA and, on balance, his course experience (albeit old not new) was a slight positive. Same goes for Don Cossack and, this year, Conflated and GDC..

[Carnage at Taunton]

I always allow jumping errors if they're a one off. ABP jumped fine in the main in the RSA and, on balance, his course experience (albeit old not new) was a slight positive. Same goes for Don Cossack and, this year, Conflated and GDC..

I’m not convinced he jumped like a natural in his gold cups, not sure Cheltenham was ideal for him, but stil won two though
Sounds a bit weird that

[Rooster Booster]

I always allow jumping errors if they're a one off. ABP jumped fine in the main in the RSA and, on balance, his course experience (albeit old not new) was a slight positive. Same goes for Don Cossack and, this year, Conflated and GDC..

Yep that’s fair. I like good jumpers and I like horses with a good engine. If a horse has both attributes I tend not to worry too much about course form unless it is proven to be a clear negative. With BMG it is currently a neutral so I am happy enough to treat it as a neutral and focus on his other attributes. To do otherwise feels like simply playing the old tapes I have thrown away. In pretty much all Gold Cups the fields are totally dominated by horses with course/track form. One of those horses invariably wins, some outrun their odds and some disappoint. On balance I’m just not convinced there’s as much to see here as is often stated.

Despite this being my view, if there is one trainer that I would trust above all others to understand whether a course is likely to suit or not it would be one that has had countless successes with a plethora of top class senior chasers at just about every major course in the land.

[AaronLad]

Elliott seemingly rules out the chance of conflated going to the ryanair.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/ireland/hes-going-for-gold-no-change-of-plan-for-conflated-despite-allaho-absence-from-ryanair-awK9a0Z0GBcX/

[Lobos]

It was the wrong call last year for Conflated so he was never going Ryanair again this year.

[Kevloaf]

Elliott seemingly rules out the chance of conflated going to the ryanair.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/irel...-awK9a0Z0GBcX/

Rightly so.



Fuck the Ryanair.





Conflated to win the Gold Cup, for the forum, at 50/1

Yes please

[Lobos]

Capadanno declared for the Red Mills Chase on Saturday. Back in the game !

[Eggs]

…likely Eldorado Allen heading here;

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2023/February/19/eldorado-allen-will-go-for-cheltenham-gold,-with-line-put-through-newbury

[EnvoiAlien]

I will be back to update the Diary on my return from the Million In Mind open day at Paul Nicholls yard on Friday. Thank you very much to those clients who have already purchased the OJA Cheltenham Festival Update - the response has been superb and greatly appreciated. The Update will include a report of my visit to the Champion trainer's Ditcheat yard. Talking of the Festival, don't be surprised to hear news about a former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner who was due to line up in steeplechasing's Blue Riband in the next few days.

Bit of a cryptic ending here from Mark Howard,only APT & Minella Indo are former winners due to run this year,might be an idea to keep a eye on the exchanges if you've backed either of the pair.