2023 Gold Cup

[Kevloaf]

I'm not sure I see Galopin Des Champs being more suited to the Gold Cup test.

I thought he'd absolutely wallop them over 3m today if he was going to be a superstar.

He's won easily enough, but not a wow moment by any stretch. I see he's been pushed out with PP after it too.

I'm not sure I agree with myself from last night any more....

The way he hit the line and this not being able to get pulled up is one of those things I do like more than I perhaps should .... maybe the extra distance isn't a problem at all!



I love flip flopping

[Exar Essay]

I'm not sure I agree with myself from last night any more....

The way he hit the line and this not being able to get pulled up is one of those things I do like more than I perhaps should .... maybe the extra distance isn't a problem at all!



I love flip flopping

The more I watch it back, the more impressed I am. Paul didn’t really touch him until 100m from the line. If he’d given him a snack 100m earlier, he’d have won 12 lengths plus and we’d be raving.

[Sprinter Sacre]

All my bets in this race are on GDC, but I do get the feeling A Plus Tard is going to bounce back and be the main danger. Tend not to back Nicholls horses at Cheltenham these days but should Bravemansgame be an exception? Performance in the King George seems to reflect that he's a different horse to the one that came 3rd in the Ballymore and I'm suprised his price is bigger than the likes of Noble Yeats.

[opatcho]

I have a strong fancy now, and that’s on Stattler

The ground was quick this weekend gone, and GDC was able to use his pace to get the better of them.

will need to look at where the pace will come from once final decs are in, but I think he could reserve that form around Cheltenham, and that’s assuming Good to Soft, if we get rain then my confidence will grow further

I have to say, GDC needs to chill out after his races, otherwise his career will be sort lived (burn out)

[Rooster Booster]

All my bets in this race are on GDC, but I do get the feeling A Plus Tard is going to bounce back and be the main danger. Tend not to back Nicholls horses at Cheltenham these days but should Bravemansgame be an exception? Performance in the King George seems to reflect that he's a different horse to the one that came 3rd in the Ballymore and I'm suprised his price is bigger than the likes of Noble Yeats.

I agree. I have done a complete 180 on BMG. LP got the run of the race and BMG had him covered before his fall. This performance has not been given the credit it merits, it has in ratings but not in the market nor in hearts and minds imo, I was convinced LP was going to win in running and I strongly feel it was a hell of a performance by BMG considering the trip he got . I never dreamed I would be talking up his chances of winning a GC but I think it’s playing old tapes now to deny he is anything but a serious player.

I have many flaws as a punter but one of the few virtues I do possess is an ability to discard strongly held views if I feel there is just cause and I do and have with this fella. Ofc it is tempting to allow the old tapes to play over and over in my head, it’s quite comforting in a way, but I can no longer indulge my hard held historic views any longer.

What would be most frustrating is if he doesn’t jump as well as usual as I am desperate now to know what he will achieve with his normal sound jumping. I understand why most are still of the same view about him but anything anybody says in rebuttal is almost certainly something I have said or thought myself. However I for one am comfortable admitting I think I got it wrong. Luckily we won’t have long now before we find out.

[archie]

I see that Monkfish has been taken out at the latest stage.

Still don't understand the love for Stattler based on Saturday. They went a decent pace (Rachael thought she possibly went too quickly in an attempt to burn off the younger brigade), yet Stattler was outpaced between the last 2 crossing the last fence about 3 lengths down. By the line he was 8 lengths down and it wasn't reducing. Official ratings kept at 175 and 163 respectively which feels about right.

Barring a fall, GDC simply doesn't lose to any of Saturday's rivals. As Bravemansgame seems to go better on flat tracks, you'd say that Conflated is the only realistic threat.

[Quevega]

I see that Monkfish has been taken out at the latest stage.

Still don't understand the love for Stattler based on Saturday. They went a decent pace (Rachael thought she possibly went too quickly in an attempt to burn off the younger brigade), yet Stattler was outpaced between the last 2 crossing the last fence about 3 lengths down. By the line he was 8 lengths down and it wasn't reducing. Official ratings kept at 175 and 163 respectively which feels about right.

Barring a fall, GDC simply doesn't lose to any of Saturday's rivals. As Bravemansgame seems to go better on flat tracks, you'd say that Conflated is the only realistic threat.

You'd better hope not, cos I remember the post you made about Conflated

I think this race is very competitive in it's own way, lots of horses have claims for whatever reason, with GDC as a rightful favourite.
I think depending on how the week has gone, the bookies may look to get him beat.

[Frankely My Dear]

This may be my inexperience but I can't have a KG winner as winner of the GC, value or not. I can't see anything beating GDC if he gets there fit and the ground isn't a big. Pocket talk indeed, but also based on his ability

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

This may be my inexperience but I can't have a KG winner as winner of the GC, value or not. I can't see anything beating GDC if he gets there fit and the ground isn't a big. Pocket talk indeed, but also based on his ability

Get your point on a KG winner but GDC by no means a certainty, not like Presenting Percy anyway :-)

A Plus Tard (not ideal prep), Minella Indo (Quality horse, may be one year too old), Protecktorat (Is he good enough), Ahoy Senor (Loves Cheltenham, but dodgy jumper) , Noble Yeats (GC too short a trip?) plus the KG winner BMG (Just maybe? Is he quite good enough?). Any of these could, and I stress could, usurp GDC. He is by no means a banker.

[AaronLad]

I see that Monkfish has been taken out at the latest stage.

Still don't understand the love for Stattler based on Saturday. They went a decent pace (Rachael thought she possibly went too quickly in an attempt to burn off the younger brigade), yet Stattler was outpaced between the last 2 crossing the last fence about 3 lengths down. By the line he was 8 lengths down and it wasn't reducing. Official ratings kept at 175 and 163 respectively which feels about right.

Barring a fall, GDC simply doesn't lose to any of Saturday's rivals. As Bravemansgame seems to go better on flat tracks, you'd say that Conflated is the only realistic threat.

I'm not sure there's any truth in that.
two visits to undulating tracks as a novice hurdler, a win at exeter and a 3rd place finish in a Ballymore at cheltenham.
Nicholls doesn't get to the ceiling of a horse as a novice hurdler, he never has.
chasing and staying was always going to be his game.
To judge him on his only visit to cheltenham in a 2m5f hurdle race would be foolish.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'm not sure there's any truth in that.
two visits to undulating tracks as a novice hurdler, a win at exeter and a 3rd place finish in a Ballymore at cheltenham.
Nicholls doesn't get to the ceiling of a horse as a novice hurdler, he never has.
chasing and staying was always going to be his game.
To judge him on his only visit to cheltenham in a 2m5f hurdle race would be foolish.

Yep, he’s always been a trainer for chasers, even his best hurdler had to fail at chasing before his hurdle success.
Would not have the track as a reason for not backing BMG.
If he stays 3m2f, he has to be a threat on his KG run.

[AaronLad]

Yep, he’s always been a trainer for chasers, even his best hurdler had to fail at chasing before his hurdle success.
Would not have the track as a reason for not backing BMG.
If he stays 3m2f, he has to be a threat on his KG run.

Even if someone was to judge him on his Ballymore effort, consider this , The last 2 horses paul nicholls has trained to place in a Ballymore are Rock on ruby in 2011 and Denman in 2006.
Rock on ruby went on to win a champion hurdle, Denman won a gold cup 2 years later.

[archie]

You'd better hope not, cos I remember the post you made about Conflated

Would that be in one of the early yankee discussions where I said that I thought he was more likely to go Ryanair again? Of course, that was before the Savills where I'd noted him as the most likely winner but I was surprised how well he ran through the line. The bare form, though, isn't very strong.

[Quevega]

Would that be in one of the early yankee discussions where I said that I thought he was more likely to go Ryanair again? Of course, that was before the Savills where I'd noted him as the most likely winner but I was surprised how well he ran through the line. The bare form, though, isn't very strong.

yes it was, but the bit you’ve missed out is below.
What distance is a cooee by the way ?

Over 3m2f at Cheltenham he doesn't get within cooee of those at the head of the betting.

[Rooster Booster]

I'm not sure there's any truth in that.
two visits to undulating tracks as a novice hurdler, a win at exeter and a 3rd place finish in a Ballymore at cheltenham.
Nicholls doesn't get to the ceiling of a horse as a novice hurdler, he never has.
chasing and staying was always going to be his game.
To judge him on his only visit to cheltenham in a 2m5f hurdle race would be foolish.

100% agree. Mullins and Nicholls two of the very best of our generation but with two very different perspectives.

Willie is obsessed with Cheltenham, if it has 4 legs and a beating heart it has a good chance of being on the boat. Novice hurdlers in particular are like an obsession within an obsession. Cheltenham novice hurdle successes are something he actively and purposefully pursues. Sometimes his good novices turn out to be even better senior horses, often they do not improve or even maintain their relative stack rank as senior horses. Willie insulates against this by having a fresh new wave the following year. This is a Cheltenham forum so Willie is our favourite trainer.

Paul is less obsessed with Cheltenham, Paul is obsessed with longevity, he is obsessed with maximising the long term potential of his horses and ensuring he gets every ounce of ability from them as senior horses. Novice hurdling is nothing more than an education or a means to an end. He is also obsessed with prize money and being champion trainer. These obsessions also mean he deprioritises Cheltenham. This is a Cheltenham forum therefore Paul is our red headed step child.

I am deliberately over simplifying as Paul is capable of novice successes and Willie has many senior triumphs, but directionally I absolutely maintain the thrust of my argument. Anybody extrapolating a horse of Paul’s as a novice hurdler to predict performance as a senior chaser needs certifying imo. Similarly anybody assuming one of Willies top novice hurdlers will improve or maintain its stack rank position I’d say rather same. Paul’s good to very good novice hurdlers nearly always become even better senior horses, Willies ratio is lower imo.

Does this mean BMG will beat GDC in March ofc it doesn’t. It just means the only reason GDC beats BMG is if he’s a better horse (all other things being equal) and not because Willie is our hero and Paul our arch villain. Both have an RPR high of 177 and there is only 3 pounds difference in the ratings. BMG is priced in tandem with a horse of Willies that has an rpr high of 167 and an official rating 9 pounds lower. We complain about prices, sometimes the prices accurately predict and reflect our attitudes and beliefs and biases (and these are very easy to predict).